The Trumpian Logic Of Designating Polisario Front As A Foreign Terrorist Organization – OpEd

The ongoing efforts to designate the Polisario Front as a foreign terrorist organization should be taken seriously. There is a sort of logic behind what is happening.

Bilateral Meeting

Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a commitment to the Kingdom of Morocco. He promised that the Trump Administration would facilitate the adoption of the Autonomy Proposal. But, that will not be easy. 

Given concerns about the U.S. economy, many believe that there is an increasing risk that the Republican Party will fare poorly in the midterm elections. If that happens, the Trump Administration would need bipartisan support to fulfill that commitment in the future. 

Furthermore, there appears to be an increasing risk that NATO member states will be misaligned on North African affairs. That is because there is no consensus on what role NATO member states should seek to play in North Africa and there is strong disagreement on the relative prioritization of North Africa for the collective. 

If one extrapolates these issues into the future, then it makes sense for the Trump Administration to try to facilitate the adoption of the Autonomy Proposal sooner rather than later.

Moroccan Sprint

The Kingdom of Morocco knows that the Trump Administration provides a once in a generation opportunity to definitively secure sovereignty over Western Sahara. It is therefore in their national interest to push as hard as they can to get their most important political ally – the Trump Administration – to sideline those that oppose the Autonomy Proposal in Western Sahara. 

Obviously, that starts with the Polisario Front. One way to try to effectuate that outcome is to have the U.S. Government designate the Polisario Front as a foreign terrorist organization. 

It therefore makes complete sense for the Government of Morocco to push the Trump Administration and U.S. Congress to make that designation as soon as possible.

Trumpian Legacy

On the other side of the equation, the Trump Administration knows that the peaceful resolution of the Western Sahara dispute would mark a major contribution to its legacy. 

The Trump Administration wants to show that it can achieve foreign policy outcomes that its predecessors failed to deliver. That includes the resolution of as many intractable conflicts as possible (e.g., Palestine; Somalia; Syria; Western Sahara; Yemen). 

It is therefore in its self-interest to push as hard as it can to get the Sahrawi nation to agree to the Autonomy Proposal while the Republican Party still has control of the U.S. Congress.

Polisario Conundrum

For the Polisario Front, it will be difficult to counter any state-sponsored campaign for its designation as an international terrorist organization by the U.S. Government.

The Polisario Front’s decision to resume the armed struggle against Morocco has paved the path toward its designation as a foreign terrorist organization. 

Of course, it does not help that one of their major state sponsors has long been accused of undermining the national security and foreign policy interests of the U.S. Government (i.e., South Africa).

The Polisario Front should therefore pay close attention to the rapidly deteriorating state of US-South Africa relations. If relations continue to deteriorate, then it will become more difficult for the Polisario Front to be able to resist the imposition of autonomy. 

• The views expressed are the author’s own.