What Drives Chinese Ambitions In South Asia? – OpEd 

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An analyst made the following points: In 2021 closely timed to his alternative model of development Xi-Jinping announced the Global Development Initiative; the GDI represents Beijing’s vision of an alternative to US hegemony with a prominent role for China; even as China’s post-pandemic recovery stalls and Russia’s war with Ukraine drags on Xi-Jinping’s promotion of these initiatives has not waned, in addition at the latest BRICS summit in South Africa XI announced a new fund to support GDI initiative for poverty alleviation and food security; in the debate between Western capitalism versus characteristics of China’s political economy which accounted for more than thirty years of China’s economic growth that was exportable to other countries; China’s transformation from an abysmally poor country to the second largest economy and the greatest trading nation in the world in 2023 is undeniable with GDI being more attractive to many other countries. Mary Gallagher added in her article that the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is already doing this with the G-7 Project for Global Infrastructure and Investment or PGII. 

There are two contradictions at the heart of GDI, however, that policymakers in Beijing are surely aware of. The first is that China’s own development path resulted in a richer China, but also a China that is vastly more unequal than it was. This structural inequality has proven hard to reverse because it is built on institutional barriers within China that limit labor mobility and reinforce existing inequalities across generations. Added is the factor of political instability in recipient countries. Sri Lanka, Laos, and Malaysia are examples.

China’s experiences with the BRI have similarly sparked concerns about how infrastructure and development initiatives help some and not others in the countries where they are undertaken. Changes in governments have led to backlashes against Chinese-backed projects in Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Montenegro. In Africa, there have been frequent complaints that Road and Belt Initiative (BRI) projects rely on imported Chinese labor to the detriment of local workers.

Analysts also criticized the secretive nature of the agreements with recipient countries which forbids the revelation of the contents of the agreements. However, the fact remains that BRI continues to be attractive to poor countries because they lack the funds for much-needed infrastructural developments. However, the Center for International and Strategic Studies sees the Chinese loans given under the Belt and Roan Initiative as opaque and harmful to many recipient countries. For example, China is funding a high-speed rail line in Laos that will cost equivalent to half the country’s GDP. The International Center further feels that BRI spending in developing countries has raised serious concerns about debt sustainability.

How Deep Is Pakistan In Economic Trouble? 

A recent Center for Global Development report found eight BRI recipient countries—Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, the Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Pakistan, and Tajikistan—are at a high risk of debt distress due to BRI loans. These countries will all face rising debt-to-GDP ratios beyond 50 percent, with at least 40 percent of external debt owed to China once BRI lending is complete. These countries will need support to service BRI loans as repayments peak and will likely turn to the IMF and other smaller lenders. Discussions for an IMF bailout have already begun in Pakistan, where China has invested $62 billion, or one-fifth of Pakistan’s GDP, in infrastructure and energy projects. The IMF has scrutinized multiple aspects of the BRI, repeatedly warning of unsustainable debt levels, predatory lending, and the lack of project transparency.

China is opposed to terms proposed by the International Monetary Fund which the IMF feels would bring clarity to the loans given by China. Analysts feel that Chinese loans violate several international lending best practices involving procurement, transparency, and dispute settlement. Chinese contractors dominate infrastructure projects, and Chinese-funded loans are less transparent than those from multilateral development banks. Beijing has demonstrated reluctance to abide by international investment standards, establishing two courts to resolve BRI-related disputes outside of existing settlement venues. China also enshrined BRI into its constitution last year, putting pressure on state companies and officials to continue lending.

As Dylan Gerstel of CSIS feels a model for serious reforms palatable to Beijing can be found within one of China’s own initiatives, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The Beijing-led development bank was launched in 2015 and, despite some initial skepticism, the organization’s operating procedures follow international standards. A majority of its projects are co-funded with Western-backed institutions and have clear documentation. In April 2017, the AIIB announced a memorandum of understanding with the World Bank to deepen cooperation, a framework that China can apply to discussions with the IMF on debt relief.

 Adopting these reforms will help legitimize the BRI and ease some of the economic tension between China and the United States. Under the current circumstances, U.S. concerns about IMF assistance being used to bail out Chinese creditors are valid. However, if Beijing commits to cleaning up its act, Washington may encourage IMF involvement in BRI countries. In doing so, the United States can encourage vital investment in developing countries while working through the IMF to encourage China to improve investment standards. At a minimum, the IMF process will improve the transparency of projects and put countries on a path to debt sustainability. More importantly, it will reduce the risk that recipient countries forfeit strategically important assets in return for Chinese debt forgiveness. Without the IMF, countries facing financial distress from BRI loans will have limited options for support outside of China and will fall deeper into debt. 

 Donald Trump’s Vice President in a speech at the Heritage Foundation in July 2021 declared that millions of Americans were “awake to the fact that the Chinese Communist Party aspires not merely to join the community of economically developed nations, but to sit atop a new global order created in its own image.” “Yet despite this new national consensus,” Pence said, “the Biden-Harris administration is already rolling over to communist China.” “There’s an old saying that weakness arouses evil. And my sense is that China senses weakness in this administration,” Pence said. In a roughly half-hour address, the former vice president proceeded to lay out a series of “urgent steps” he insisted Biden take toward China — including demanding that Beijing “come clean” about how Covid-19 first spread, ensuring the U.S. was “fully prepared” for future pandemics and accelerating efforts “to decouple the American economy from China” in critical U.S. industries. Pence also said Biden should “strengthen the ties of economic commerce” with Taiwan by striking a trade agreement with the island nation, which China views as part of its territory.

Pence warned Biden against issuing H-1B visas to Chinese nationals working for U.S. technology companies, and— unless China reveals more about the origins of the coronavirus and ends its persecution of ethnic Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang region. “The American people recognize today what our administration brought to the fore,” Pence said. “The Chinese Communist Party is the greatest threat to our prosperity, security, and values on the face of the Earth.” Mike Pence is known as an anti-Chinese politician who reflects the majority of American public opinion not known for their liking of China. According to the Brookings Institute In the case of Vice President Mike Pence’s 2018 speech, was aimed at the domestic American audience and the clear objectives were to lay the basis for an adversarial posture toward China and to justify President Trump’s accusation that China is interfering in America’s electoral process. Pence sought to harden Americans’ perceptions of China by listing point-by-point many instances of Chinese efforts to influence American public discourse. He also sent a stark warning to American companies, urging them not to abet Beijing’s oppression.

On the subject of election meddling, the Vice President attempted to shift public scrutiny from Russia to China. Pence asserted that Russian efforts to interfere in America’s electoral process “pales in comparison to what China is doing.” The Vice President vowed that Trump would not back down in challenging China and that the American people would not be swayed by Chinese efforts to encourage the United States to soften its approach. 

 Since Joe Biden’s administration had little to show thus far for how its escalatory instincts on China would deliver material benefits for the American people, the vice president chose instead to highlight how U.S.-China tensions are hurting China, including by leading to a 25 percent fall in the value of the Shanghai stock exchange. While there appears to be support among President Trump’s base for a tougher approach toward China, it remains an open question whether the American public will come to support a policy of unvarnished rivalry.

Any discussion on China would not be complete without reference to the Indo-Chinese border dispute. After the 1962 China-Indian War that led to the resignation of then Defense Minister Krishna Menon China and Pakistan aligned with each other in a joint effort to counter India and the Soviet Union as both had border disputes with India. One year after China’s border war with India, Pakistan, and China signed the Sino-Pakistan Agreement that resulted in China and Pakistan each withdrawing from about 1,900 square kilometers (750 square miles) of territory. Since then, the informal alliance that initially began as mutual opposition towards India has grown into a lasting relationship that has benefited both nations on the diplomatic, economic, and military frontiers. Along with diplomatic support, Pakistan served as a conduit for China to open up to the West. China has in turn provided extensive economic aid and political support to Pakistan. The disputed territory was ceded to China in 1963. Since the two sides established their “all-weather diplomatic relations”, there have been frequent exchanges between the two countries leadership and peoples. For example, former Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai received warm welcomes in all of his four visits to Pakistan. When Zhou Enlai died in 1976 a road in the Pakistani capital Islamabad leading to the Diplomatic Enclave was named “Zhou Enlai Road”.

It is the first road in Pakistan that is named after foreign leaders. On 20 April 2015, Chinese President and Communist Party General Secretary Xi-Jinping visited Pakistan as his first foreign visit of the year, also the first by a Chinese president in several years. Before his arrival, he published an article praising the friendship in Pakistani newspapers like Daily Jang. The Chinese president compared visiting Pakistan with visiting his brother’s home. Like the previous visit by Premier Li, the airplane was given a grand welcome upon his arrival in Pakistan. Since the September 11 attacks (September 11 attacks, also called the 9/11 attacks, a series of airline high jackings and suicide attacks committed in 2001 by 19 militants associated with the Islamic extremist group al-Oaeda against targets in the United States, the deadliest terrorist attacks on American soil in U.S. history. The attacks against New York City and Washington D. C. caused extensive death and destruction and triggered an enormous U.S. effort to combat terrorism. Some 2,750 people were killed in New York 184 at the Pentagon and 40 in Pennsylvania -ENCYCLOPEDIA BRITANNICA).

Pakistan has increased the scope of Chinese influence and support by agreeing to a number of military projects, combined with extensive economic support and investment from the Chinese. With the U.S.-led War in Afghanistan, there is a general sentiment in Pakistan to adopt a foreign policy that favors China over the United States. Washington has been accused of deserting Pakistan in favor of a policy that favors stronger relations with India, while Pakistan sees China as a more reliable ally over the long term. The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence were codified in the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Good Neighborly Relations signed between China and Pakistan. In February 2022, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s presence at the opening ceremony of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing declared support for Pakistan on the Kashmir conflict, Khan also expressed his commitment to the One China Policy. In short Sino-Pakistani relations have been described by the Pakistani State Minister for Foreign Affairs.

CONCLUSION 

In August last year, Hina Rabbani Khar termed China the pillar of peace and stability in the region. She said all Pakistanis are united in friendship with Pakistan, adding China “brings all of Pakistan together.” “No government has ever tried to change China’s position as the cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy,” she said while addressing a seminar at the Pakistan-China Institute which organized the event on the upcoming 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China under its flagship Friends of Silk Road initiative. She added that. Hina Rabbani Khar said that China was a pillar of peace and stability in the region and a preserver, promoter, and protector of principles of peaceful coexistence in the region. She said the initiatives launched by President Xi Jinping, whether it was the Global Development Initiative or Global Security Initiative, were a testament to the fact that China prioritized human security and stability over confrontation.

Ambassador Kazi Anwarul Masud

Kazi Anwarul Masud is a former Secretary and ambassador of Bangladesh

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