Tectonic Shift In Sri Lankan Tamil Politics – Analysis
In the November 14 Sri Lankan parliamentary elections, the minority Tamils broke away from ethnic parties and supported the all-island, left wing, National Peoples’ Power (NPP) in a tectonic political shift.
As predicted by most, the National Peoples’ Power (NPP) swept the Sinhala-dominated areas of Sri Lanka in the November 14 parliamentary elections. The NPP had the reputation of being a Sinhala nationalist party and its fortunes were on the upswing given the alienation of the other national parties from the public.
But what came as a surprise was the NPP’s sterling performance in the Tamil and Muslim-dominated areas of North and East Sri Lanka. Breaking with a seven-decade tradition, Sri Lankan Tamils flocked to the all-island National Peoples’ Power (NPP) party in preference to ethnic Tamil parties, including the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK).
Concern for good governance appears to have weighed in substantially. Mobilisation on traditional Tamil political issues like provincial autonomy through the full implementation of the 13th., amendment and accountability for alleged war crimes etc., had weakened. Instead, faith was reposed in the NPP’s promise to give a clean, people-oriented government.
The NPP put the Tamils’ favourite party, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), in the shade, and emerged as the number one choice in many of the electorates in the Tamil and Muslim-dominated Northern and Eastern provinces.
The NPP’s performance was impressive especially taking into account the fact that the party was a total “outsider” to the area. It was a “Sinhalese” party witch had no presence at all in the Tamil-dominated North ever before.
For most of its life, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which is the core of the NPP, had campaigned against devolution of power to the Tamils. It was dead against the 13 th., Amendment. It rejected the Tamils charge of ‘war crimes” against the armed forces.
Even in its election manifesto, the NPP did not commit itself to meeting any of the traditional Tamil demands. It only said that all issues of national importance will be taken up when the new parliament discusses a new constitution for the country.
NPP’s Dominance in North and East
In Vaddukoddai, in Jaffna district, which had been an ITAK stronghold, the NPP got the single largest number of votes – 21.5%. The All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC) came second with 13.48%; and the ITAK came third with 13.39%.
In Kankesanthurai also, the NPP was in the forefront with 13.37% of the votes. The ITAK got 12.57%; and the ACTC 7.15%. In Manipay, the share of votes had NPP at the top with 30.94%; and ITAK at number two with 13.49%. In Koppai, the NPP secured 29.86% and the ITAK 12.63%. The score in Uddipiddy was NPP 20.16% and ITAK 15.07%.
In Point Pedro too, the NPP came first with 21.89 % and the ITAK second with 19.71%. In Nallur, a Hindu stronghold, the NPP came first with 31.44% and ITAK third with 11.49%. In Jaffna proper, NPP came first with 41.46% and ITAK second with 11.81%.
However, in Kayts, the NPP got less than the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP). In Chavakachery, an Independent Group for the maximum number of votes.
In Kilinochchi, ITAK President S.Sritharan’s pocket borough, the ITAK bagged 43.79% of the votes and came first. The NPP came second with 16.39%.
In Kalkuda in Batticaloa district in the Eastern province, the ITAK was the top scorer with 28.10 %. But in Batticaloa town, the NPP was first with 27.11% with the ITAK and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress were slightly behind. In Paddiruppu, the strong hold of the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Puigam (TMVP), the NPP stood third.
In Trincomalee District, which is ethnically mixed, the NPP got the largest percentage of votes in both Seruvila and Trincomalee town, cornering 56% and 40% respectively. In Mutur, the NPP came second to the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).
In Digamadulla (Ampara) district, the NPP was the top scorer in Amparai town, Sammanthurai and Kalmunai. It was second to the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) in Pottuvil.
NPP’s Tamil winners
Though a hard line Sinhala party, the NPP put up Tamil candidates in areas where the Tamils were concentrated and made many of them win. In Nuwara Eliya, NPP’s candidate Krishnan Kalaiselvi was one of the winners. In Matara, deep in the Sinhala South, an NPP Tamil candidate, Saroja Savithri Paulraj was among the winners.
In the Wanni, the NPP managed to get two of its Tamil candidates elected in the six seats up for grabs. In Batticaloa, its candidate K.Prabhu bagged one of the five seats. In Badulla, NPP got 2 Tamils elected –K.Selvaraj and S. Ambika in the nine-seat electoral district. In Ratnapura, NPP got S. Pradeep elected to one of the 11 seats.
In Jaffna, three of NPP candidates (all Tamils) won. The ITAK and the All Ceylon Tamil Congress got only one each.
Ethnic Nationalisms on the backburner
While the NPP did not play up Sinhala nationalism in its campaign, the Tamil parties played up Tamil nationalist demands like federalism, accountability for alleged war-time atrocities, vacation of military-occupied lands and the full implementation of the 13 th.Amendment for more power devolution.
But a substantial section of voters appeared to have overlooked the contentious ethnic issues and pitched for better governance, less corruption and more people-centred development which were promised by the NPP.
Tamils voted for the NPP despite the fact the NPP’s election manifesto had nothing to say on the Tamils’ ethnic issues as such. It promised a new constitution, but left its contents vague, leaving the issue to be tackled by the new parliament.
Though this was neither here nor there, the Tamils voted for the NPP because their attention was elsewhere, namely, on their deteriorating economic circumstances created by the COVID 19 pandemic and the economic crisis of 2022. They were desperately in need of a government which would give them some relief.
It is not clear as to how the NPP government will bring relief to the people given the lack of financial resources, the dependence on foreign aid and debt repayment obligations.
Ahilan Kadirgamar, a professor at the University of Jaffna told Frontlinemagazine that the lands released from military occupation in the Northern Province could be developed by local cooperatives with a local village level official drawing up plans for their development and use. Development of this kind will be “bottom up” and not “top down”, as is the case now. Development efforts will then be more effective.
Most importantly, the NPP, being a hard core Sinhalese or Sri Lankan nationalist party, can take bold steps to bring about ethnic reconciliation because it cannot be accused of being anti-Sinhala or anti-Sri Lankan, Kadirgamar pointed out.
The Tamils could make use the window of opportunities which is open now, to realize their reasonable demands within the frame of Sri Lanka’s constitution.