Can Ishiba’s ASEAN Diplomacy Yield The Desired Dividend? – Analysis
In preparation to face the Opposition’s demands and allegations in the ordinary session of parliament that begins on 24 January 2025, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba prepares to face trials and tribulations for the minority government that he heads. In preparation of this, Ishiba chose to indulge in a bit of foreign policy diplomacy by visiting two important countries in Southeast Asia – Indonesia and Malaysia – in the second week of January 2025 to boost his parliamentary management skills.
Ishiba also hopes to visit the United States to meet with Donald Trump who moved to the While House for a second term in the presidency. By this diplomatic move, Ishiba hoped his minority government shall get a boost. It is unclear whether Ishiba’s foreign policy strategy shall yield the expected dividend as his plate is already full with domestic affairs and if he can afford to indulge more on diplomacy.
The highlights of Ishiba’s four-day visit to Malaysia and Indonesia were aimed to deepen security and economic cooperation thereby shoring up ties with Southeast Asia as China expands its regional clout and to navigate under Trump.02 period.
Amid growing international uncertainty, Ishiba chose to visit the two Southeast Asian countries as his first diplomatic overseas trip aside from international conferences in a multilateral setting since taking office in October 2024. He met with Malaysian leader Anwar Ibrahim and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, both of whom agreed to work more closely with Japan, not only in the more traditional economic, investment and energy arenas, but also on security matters. The fact that Ishiba prioritised Malaysia, which is this year’s chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), an organisation critical to Tokyo’s regional interests, and Indonesia, the region’s largest country and economy, was no coincidence.
Ishiba’s aim was to strengthen relations with two key Southeast Asian neighbors and trading partners. The significance of the timing of the visit can be also seen as it came amid China’s increasing maritime presence in the region. Both Malaysia and Indonesia are key energy suppliers for Japan and Ishiba’s aim was to ensure a stable supply from them while supporting their impressive economic growth.
While Malaysia will serve as the chair of ASEAN in 2025, Indonesia is a member of the Group of 20. Both countries are key players among the emerging nations of the Global South. The leaders of the three countries focused on strengthening maritime security cooperation and advance economic cooperation, with an emphasis on decarbonization initiatives. Both Malaysia and Indonesia are recipients of Japan’s Official Security Assistance (OSA) initiative, which includes the provision of defense equipment.
Ishiba’s visit to Indonesia came days after the visit of Japan’s Defense Minister Gen. Nakatani to Jakarta and discussion with his Indonesian counterpart and other defense officials on January 7th during which both leaders agreed to begin discussion on maritime security cooperation. What is noteworthy is before taking office in October 2024, Prabowo served as defense minister and he understood the importance of deepening defense and security cooperation with Japan in view of lurking threats from China’s expansionist designs.
As was expected, during the summit with Prabowo, Ishiba pledged the provision of high-speed patrol boats to the Indonesian navy as part of the OSA initiative. The two leaders also discussed the joint development of vessels based on Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyers. China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea over territorial claims have stoked tensions in the region and Japan-Indonesia maritime security cooperation stems from such concern.
Both Ishiba and Prabowo also decided to hold a so-called two-plus-two meeting of foreign and defense ministers by the end of 2025, their first since March 2021. Japan held its inaugural two-plus-two meeting with Indonesia in 2015. It marked the first such security framework with a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Both sides have realised that both are important strategic partners that share fundamental values and principles. Prabowo was candid in saying Japan is a very important partner for Indonesia and that Ishiba’s visit symbolised the two countries’ commitments to strengthening cooperation in various fields.
Japan expects to counterbalance China’s maritime advances by deepening collaboration with Indonesia, a leading ASEAN member. Tokyo also aims to serve as a bridge between ASEAN and the United States due to concerns in Southeast Asia over the America-first policy of the Trump administration. Ishiba and Prabowo confirmed that the two countries will work together on defense equipment, technology cooperation and personnel exchanges. One option agreed was joint development of a naval vessel based on a Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer.
On the economic front, the leaders confirmed that the two countries will cooperate on issues related to resources and infrastructure in the context of reducing the carbon footprint in the Asian region. Indonesia, which advocates an omnidirectional foreign policy, has strong economic ties with China. It may be mentioned that on January 6, 2025, Indonesia formally joined BRICS, which comprises Brazil, China, India, Russia and other emerging economies.
Like with Prabowo of Indonesia, Ishiba also met with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and discussed to bolster security cooperation to counter maritime moves by China. The objective was to send a message that Japan is committed to raising its profile in regional affairs. Japan’s focus on engagement with the ASEAN neighbours also had the footprint of Trump’s expected approach to make bilateral deals with many countries rather than engaging in multilateral diplomatic initiatives to address regional and global issues.
There seems to be a realisation that world politics need to be rebooted in view of the expected disruptive policies by Trump during his second tenure. The year 2025 is expected to undergo many tumultuous phases amid complexity and unpredictability. There is a realization therefore to remain engaged so that a free and open international order based on the rule of law is maintained and strengthened.
Like with Indonesia, Ishiba also pledged to continue providing assistance to Malaysia under Japan’s OSA program which provides defense equipment to Tokyo’s allies. Ishiba and Ibrahim also discussed economic issues and agreed to further strengthen their efforts in the Asia Zero Emission Community plan to establish a carbon-neutral Asia in the future. They also agreed to cooperate in strengthening the supply chain for essential products such as semiconductors.
The two leaders also agreed to cooperate in providing support to Palestine, a major concern for Malaysia which has a large Muslim population. Malaysia is not only a key nation for sea lanes in the region, but also serves as chair of ASEAN. The importance that Japan attaches to Malaysia and the ASEAN grouping is demonstrated from the fact that Ishiba is the fourth consecutive prime minister of Japan to choose a nation in that region for the first foreign visit outside of an international conference.
Much like Japan’s territorial dispute with China over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, coastal ASEAN nations also have their own disputes with China in the South China Sea. Japan has provided assistance through its OSA program to such nations. The members of the ASEAN bloc look forward to Japan for support more than the US as the bloc does not see much hope from Trump with his America-first doctrine. Even during his first term, Trump attended only one of the annual summit meetings with ASEAN leader during his first term and so do not see much hope of support from Trump during his second term. This scenario makes a compelling reason for deepening Japan-ASEAN engagement so that the elephant in the room – China – kept in check.