North Korea’s Sabre-Rattling Threatens Regional Stability – Analysis
Ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration for the second term on January 20, 2025, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un ratcheted up nuclear tensions by launching the first missile test of 2025 on January 6, thereby making demonstrably clear the country’s continued interest in advanced hypersonic glide vehicle technologies. This also showed that Kim Jong-un’s hypersonic ambitions are far from a vanity project.
Pyongyang first flight-tested a hypersonic glide vehicle-toting missile in 2021 with what it called Hwasong-8. Since then, North Korea has revealed two additional iterations on the basic technology. The launch of January 6 of a solid-fuel, intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile marks the third payload iteration, offering insights into what appears to be an active research and development area for the country’s missile advancement programs.
Even when Pyongyang’s missile administration succeeds in test-firing of new type intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missiles, nuclear tensions build up further in the region. While Kim Jong-un might be seeking to pile pressure on Trump during his second term, he has surely left his long-time ally China with which he maintains a sort of lips-and- teeth relationship in a no-win situation. This is following his growing alignment with Moscow and new-found bonhomie with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Kim has called his “best friend”. No doubt, Kim has put Beijing in an awkward position.
In order to ensure that everything goes in perfection, Kim Jong-un oversaw the test-fire of the new-type Intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile through a monitoring system on the spot when General Jang Chang Ha, general director of the Missile Administration of North Korea and leading officials of the defence science institute guided the test-fire.
This acquisition of the new strategic weapon system demonstrates Kim’s resolve to develop North Korea’s national defence capabilities in order to raise the durability and effectiveness of strategic deterrent against what Pyongyang identifies as potential rivals. In Kim’s calculations, such thoughts are in conformity with the changing regional security environment. Kim was pleased that few countries in the world possess such weapon system. He expressed optimism that the newly developed hypersonic missile system will reliably contain any rivals in the Pacific region and secure the country’s security.
Kim was generous in applauding the efforts of the researchers, technicians and the workers of munitions industry enterprise for contributing to the successful development of the new-type strategic weapon system. The missile that was fired reached its first peak at the height of 99.8 kilometers and the second peak at the height of 42.5 kilometers. It was a 1,500-km-long flight, travelling 12 times the speed of sound and accurately landing on the waters of simulated target in the open area. Though the test-fire had no negative effect on the security of the neighbouring countries, the concern nevertheless remains as Pyongyang resolved to continue developing its defence capabilities with the aim of accelerating the path to emerge as a strong military power.
The Defense Ministry in Tokyo said the missile landed outside its exclusive economic zone and that there were no reports of damage to vessels or aircraft. South Korea’s military also confirmed it had detected an unidentified ballistic missile fired toward the Sea of Japan.
Reactions of South Korea
South Korea was swift to react, saying Pyongyang’s claim is likely to be a ‘deception’. South Korea that faces continuous threat from its neighbor, the unease can be understandable. While South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) spokesperson Col. Lee Sung-jun confirmed the launch, he did not identify the type of missile and disputed Pyongyang’s claim that the missile flew some 1,500 kilometers (930 miles). Lee’s claims were based on the flight range analysed by South Korea, the United States and Japan, which put the range around 1,100 kilometers. Lee explained that hypersonic missiles will be difficult to demonstrate their performance in the Korean Peninsula, which has a short length of depth. In the military, the term ‘depth’ refers to the extension of operations in space, time, or purpose. Behind Pyongyang’s claims, the technological assistance from Russia could not be disputed given the new-found bonhomie between the two countries.
North Korea-Russia Bonhomie
Both North Korea and Russia have been drawn closer over the past year or more amid widespread suspicion that North Korea has supplied conventional weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine in return for military and economic assistance. The US and South Korea are concerned that Russia could transfer North Korea advanced weapons technology in return for Kim’s dispatch of North Korean soldiers to fight Putin’s Ukraine war, which could potentially enhance the threat posed by Kim’s nuclear-armed military. While in Seoul, Blinken described the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea as a “two-way street,” saying Russia has been providing military equipment and training to the North and “intends to share space and satellite technology.”
According to a February 2022 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in the past five years, Russia, China and others have accelerated their development of hypersonic missiles to threaten US forces in the homeland and abroad.
Hypersonic weapons combine the speed of ballistic missiles with the manoeuvrability and detectability challenges of cruise missiles, leaving little time to react. The CSIS report observed that “the current Ballistic Missile Defense System, largely equipped to contend with legacy ballistic missile threats, must be adapted to this challenge. The same characteristics that make hypersonic missile attractive may also hold the key to defeating them”. Most modern missile defence systems, including the one on South Korea, are designed to target ballistic missiles.
Cause for concern in Japan
It was a worrying sign for Japan when Pyongyang claimed the new hypersonic intermediate-range weapon is effective at “breaking at any dense effective barrier”. Kim’s claims that the latest missile test would help deter North Korea’s enemies in the region was a veiled reference to the US, Japan and South Korea. Kim claimed that the hypersonic missile system will reliably contain any rivals in the Pacific region that can affect North Korea’s security.
The timing of the missile test is significant as it came two weeks before the inauguration of US President-elect Trump, who had tried to woo North Korea during his first term by his summit diplomacy but without success. It also coincided with Washington’s top diplomat Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to the region. Blinken first visited strategic ally South Korea and then Japan to discuss issues surrounding Pyongyang and the region. On his part, Kim justified the missile launch as a plan and effort for self-defence, and not an offensive plan and action. For him, the missile launch was to prepare for a serious military strike to a rival while effectively breaking any dense defensive barrier.
While in Seoul, Blinken condemned North Korea’s latest launch, which violated United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions against the North, and reiterated concerns about the growing alignment between Pyongyang and Moscow over utin’s war on Ukraine.
The launch was a clear message to the United States to engage in dialogue based on Pyongyang’s new game-changing technology as Trump prepares to enter the White House on January 20. Kim was only sending a message to Washington that North Korea’s strategic position must be acknowledged in any dialogue process. Kim feels he scored a point by the missile launch as he knew that this technology was possessed only by Russia, China and the United States before Pyongyang achieved the sophistication.
Pyongyang has plans for extended range for future launches to between 3,000 to 5,000 kilometers and if successful, could threaten not only the US forces in Japan but even further targets. No wonder, Blinken and his South Korean counterpart Cho Tae-yul condemned the launch and underlined the importance of deepening a three-way alliance with Japan. Both the leaders also shared concerns that North Korea sent thousands of troops to fight against Ukraine in support of Russia and also suffered hundreds of casualties.
Like in Seoul with Cho, in Tokyo too Blinken strongly condemned North Korea’s latest ballistic launch during his talks with his Japanese counterpart Takeshi Iwaya and underlined the importance of trilateral cooperation with South Korea. While committing to raise the Japan-US alliance to new heights, Blinken and Iwaya committed to strengthen the relationship between Washington and Tokyo in various fields such as national security and the economy, even after the transition of power in the United States. The two ministers also pledged to boost the deterrence and response capabilities of their alliance and exchanged views on issues related to China, as well as the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Future of Regional Stability
If a recalcitrant Kim sticks to an uncompromising attitude, can anyone guarantee regional security and efforts to secure regional stability be achieved? That is a million dollar question for which there is no easy answer. It is to be seen if Trump comes out with any new innovative strategy to deal with the North Korean leader while protecting the interests of the two Asian allies, Japan and South Korea.