US Africa Command Faces Challenges Under Trump – OpEd

By

The incoming Trump administration is set to pursue an aggressive approach to Africa that will prove challenging for the US Africa Command (Africom), the Pentagon’s combatant command for Africa.  Trump may have described African nations as “shithole countries” during his first term and largely ignored the continent.  But, in his second term, right-wing advisors are determined to transform US national security policy and implement new policies on competing with China, expanding economic relations with African countries, promoting democracy and human rights, and responding to the threat of armed jihadi insurgent groups.

We already know Trump’s nominees for the leading national security positions:  Mike Waltz as Director of the National Security Council (NSC), with Joe Foltz reportedly likely to serve as NSC Senior Director for Africa; Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, with J. Peter Pham as Assistant Secretary of State for Africa; Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense; and John Ratcliffe as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. 

In addition, Tibor Nagy, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in the first Trump administration, just announced that he will be returning to the State Department in a temporary role “beyond just Africa.”  And retired Lieutenant Colonel Rudolph Atallah, a specialist on African security issues, is expected to join the National Security Council and focus on US counter-terrorism operations in Africa.

Their priority will be countering China’s “malign influence” in Africa and competing with them for control over strategic raw materials, particularly uranium, oil and natural gas, coltan, lithium, and other “green energy” minerals.  And their primary focus will be on central Africa, where they will exert pressure on the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo to curtail Chinese mining operations and increase security cooperation with Rwanda and Uganda in the mineral-rich, but war-torn eastern part of the country.   

According to J. Peter Pham, in an essay entitled “Africa in the Second Trump Administration” and published in November 2024, minerals from the Democratic Republic of Congo “are key to securing supply chains for US defense needs as well as the demands of America’s renewed domestic energies.  This—rather than exporting raw materials to China, where supply chains can be weaponized—is how to achieve a ‘win-win’ outcome for both Africans and Americans.”

And, according to Ambassador Pham, South Africa will be punished for its “closeness to Russia, China, and Iran, and its role in leading the ‘genocide’ case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.  All three members of the national security team nominated by President Trump—Marco Rubio and Representatives Michael Waltz and Elise Stefanik—are on the record raising concerns about Pretoria’s positioning itself in the orbit of Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran as well as its antisemitic antics.”

They will also expand and escalate US counter-terrorism operations in Africa, particularly in the Sahel.   They view the greatest threat coming from conflicts which pose a threat to US citizens, businesses and organizations, US government agency personnel, and US national security interests.  

According to Ambassador Pham, “the epicenter of terrorism has shifted from the Middle Est and North Africa to Sub-Saharan Africa, concentrated in the Sahel region.”  So, “tackling these challenges in a way that is consonant with US interests is not at cross purposes with President Trump’s determination to avoid new wars and open-ended commitments to counterinsurgency operations or nation-building exercises.” 

This means resuming security cooperation with the military regimes that seized power in the Sahel, pressuring the coastal West African states to host a growing number of US personnel and increased US military activities, pressuring the French to resume aggressive security involvement in the region, increasing security cooperation with northern African countries (Morocco, Tunisia, and Libya), and expanding security cooperation with Nigeria.  They are likely to ignore the activities of Russian mercenary forces—from the Africa Corps, formerly known as the Wagner Group—and Russian commercial and business activities in Africa.

They may decide to follow the advice of prominent members of the first Trump administration like J. Peter Pham and Tibor Nagy to recognize Somaliland as an independent state.  At the very least, this will complicate US Africa Command operations in Somalia against al-Shabaab (including both military training operations and airstrikes by US aircraft and drones).  It will also make it extremely difficult to continue security cooperation with Ethiopia and maintain ordinary diplomatic relations with the Abiy regime, as well as US arms transfers and military training programs for the Ethiopian military.  

Since the Ethiopian military is a major component in the AU-sponsored peacekeeping force in Somalia (backed and financed by the US), this will severely disrupt their operations and provide al-Shabaab with a golden opportunity to expand its operations in Somalia or even launch strikes against US interests and citizens elsewhere.  

“But,” wrote Ambassador Pham, “in his first term, President Trump correctly assessed that there was neither a capable local partner in the Mogadishu regime nor any US national interest that warranted risking American lives or treasure on the ground in Somalia.  He ordered US military personnel pulled out.  Any threats posed by al-Shabab, the Qaeda-aligned Islamist movement, or the Islamic State’s local affiliate could be dealt with from offshore or bases in nearby countries.  The Biden administration reversed this Trump order, which will need to be revisited after the inauguration.”

They will avoid any meaningful effort to resolve the civil war in Sudan, choosing instead to ignore the role of Egypt and the UAE in arming the rival forces and prolonging the conflict.  And they are unlikely to pay any significant attention to the spreading armed jihadist insurgency in northern Mozambique, despite the recent discovery of large deposits of oil and natural gas in the region.

Africom, which was founded in 2008 to manage US military relations with African states and conduct military operations in Africa, will have its hands full keeping up with all these changes in US security policy toward Africa. 

It will have to manage the retreat of US intelligence drone operations and other American forces in the Sahel to coastal west Africa and move its counter-terrorism operations to coastal west African states like Ghana, Benin, and Cote d’Ivoire.

It will have to implement Trump’s likely decision to recognize the sovereignty of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland and try to find a way to continue operations against al-Shabaab in the rump state of Somalia.  

It will have to respond to orders to increase its involvement in the continuing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo and expand its military training programs and other military assistance programs in Rwanda and Uganda.  

It will have to manage military relations with Morocco, including preparing for the possible outbreak of renewed warfare in the Western Sahara between Morocco and the Sahrawi Democratic Republic.  

And it will have to continue to prepare for possible American military intervention in Nigeria in response to what the Pentagon regards as the “nightmare scenario” of state collapse and civil war, especially if it impacts the Christian communities in the country or impedes oil production.

So, when will we know more about the Trump administration’s security policy toward Africa and its military intentions on the continent?  While we may see some indications before then, we are certain to learn a great deal about them in March, when President Trump will submit his budget request for fiscal year 2026 to Congress and when Marine General Michael Langley—the current commander of Africom—will testify in support of the proposed budget before the House and Senate Armed Services Committees.  General Langley was very revealing last time and I, for one, look forward to hearing what he has tell us this coming March.

Daniel Volman

Daniel Volman is the director of the African Security Research Project in Washington, DC, (www.africansecurity.org) and a specialist on U.S. military policy toward Africa and African security issues.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *