ISSN 2330-717X

Iran: The Supreme Guide Is Waiting For Another Tsunami To Consolidate Its Power – OpEd

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On February 21st, the 11th parliamentary election of the Iranian regime will be held. The main source of the power of the regime, the supreme guide, has made a serious decision not to take any risk at all and not to let any other candidates in the parliament except his loyal inner circle and factions. Thus, in any form, he exploits the leverage of the Guardian Council to achieve this end.

For example, a spokesman for the Guardian Council on television reported that 90% of disqualified individuals were involved in financial corruption cases. Meanwhile, the candidate who is the head of Tehran’s list and likely to be the next speaker of the parliaments has 12 financial corruption cases during his administration in the municipality of Tehran, and after two years no judicial investigation has been conducted yet. 

In November’s uprising in which at least 1500 revolutionary youths were killed, the primary slogan “down with the dictator, whether is King or the Supreme Leader” was a clear message for the regime change. This uprising, with its brutal killing and unprecedented violence, sent a sharp message to the international community that the Iranian regime has lost its legitimacy. During the November uprising, it became clear that the Iranian regime had completely lost its power and influence.

And during the student-led uprising after the fall of the Ukrainian airliner, the students were chanting “commander in chief should resign.” This is while the Iranian regime has always relied on its two fundamental pillars namely, warmongering and exporting terrorism abroad and repression inside.  One of its two pillars, exporting terrorism is collapsing, which means the collapse of the regime as a whole. According to Khamenei, Ghassem Soleimani, the symbol of the terrorism and warmongering policies of the Iranian regime, has succeeded in securing Iran by fighting wars abroad in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

The sanctions have closed the way for financing the Iranian regime’s militias. The strategic plan of the Iranian regime, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon is crumbling, but Khamenei has always said that if we do not fight in Iraq and Syria, we should fight in Tehran.

The economy is on the verge of collapsing because of rampant corruption, the destruction of production capacity and sanctions. Poverty and unemployment affect more than two-thirds of society. Oil sales have declined to zero and the regime’s survival cannot be assumed under these conditions.

To Khamenei, negotiating with the US is like a deadly poison for his regime. He believes that the US’s ultimate goal is to make Iran abandon its warmongering policies, such as intervening in regional affairs and development of ballistic missiles program. This means the overthrow of the foundations on which the Iranian regime had relied since its inception.

It is true that the US would like a regime-change; however, Khamenei also knows well and has stated again and again that a change in the regime’s behavior is equal to the change of the regime. 

In the current situation that the governance of the jurist regime is trying to consolidate its power in order to survive, it looks like Khamenei is preparing himself for facing another uprising. 

One representative of Khamenei says that for the next step “we should establish a loyal and Hezbollah government, meaning that Rouhani’s moderate agenda has come to an end.    

One famous state-run newspaper has depicted the dead-end of the regime and claims that the only way out for the country is a constitutional referendum.  The constitution is based on the Governance of the Jurist doctrine, and it simply means that the dead-end will only be overcome through the change of the Guardian Jurist and that would be the end of the regime. 

Hamid Enayat

Hamid Enayat*

Hamid Enayat is an Iranian human rights activist and analyst based in Europe.