ASEAN 2025: Navigating Unity In A Divided World – OpEd
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has long served as a cornerstone of stability and cooperation in Southeast Asia. Founded in 1967 it has played a vital role in fostering peace economic growth and regional dialogue among its ten member states. However, as the world becomes increasingly multipolar ASEAN’s geopolitical competence faces heightened scrutiny. The bloc’s ability to navigate this complex landscape in 2025 will depend on its capacity to strengthen internal cohesion enhance economic integration and assert itself as a mediator in global and regional conflicts all while addressing challenges posed by external interference internal disparities, and non-traditional security threats.
Historically ASEAN has been instrumental in promoting regional stability. The organization emerged during the Cold War as a platform to prevent conflicts among its member states and to counter external ideological influences. Its early success in fostering peace within a plagued region by territorial disputes and ideological divides is a testament to its effectiveness. ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) and its principle of non-interference have provided a framework for peaceful coexistence ensuring that member states resolve disputes through dialogue rather than confrontation. Furthermore, ASEAN has been pivotal in driving economic stability most notably through initiatives like the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), which has facilitated intra-regional trade and investment. This historical role as a stabilizing force underscores ASEAN’s geopolitical significance.
In recent years ASEAN has achieved remarkable success in regional diplomacy and economic integration. Its role in mediating disputes such as those in the South China Sea highlights its importance as a platform for dialogue. Although the South China Sea disputes remain unresolved ASEAN’s consistent emphasis on diplomacy has prevented these tensions from escalating into open conflict. The establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)the world’s largest free trade agreement, further demonstrates ASEAN’s ability to foster economic cooperation among its member states and external partners. Additionally, ASEAN forums led such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) have enhanced the bloc’s role as a convener of global powers, enabling it to shape regional security and economic agendas.
However, despite achievements ASEAN faces significant challenges that threaten its geopolitical competence. The internal bloc is marked by in disparities economic development governance, politics and systems among its member states. For instance, Singapore enjoys one of the highest GDPs per capita in the world the countries like Myanmar and Cambodia lag significantly behind. This economic gap often translates into diverging national priorities complicating efforts to achieve consensus on critical issues. Additionally, ASEAN lacks enforceable mechanisms to address intra-regional disputes which undermines its ability to present a unified front. Fragmented response, to external pressures, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, further highlighted these internal divisions.
Externally the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China poses a significant challenge to ASEAN’s neutrality. Both powers seek to expand their influence in Southeast Asia often forcing ASEAN member states to choose sides. For example, the U. S. has ramped up its military presence in the region under its Indo-Pacific Strategy while China continues to assert its claims in the South China Sea and expand Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in ASEAN countries. These competing influences risk fracturing ASEAN’s cohesion, as member states prioritize bilateral relations with these powers over collective interests. Moreover the rise of other regional players, as such India and Japan, complicates further ASEAN’s strategic calculations.
Non-traditional security threats present a growing challenge. Climate change and environmental degradation have disproportionately affected Southeast Asia, rising with sea levels threatening low-lying countries like Vietnam and the Philippines disaster as typhoons and earthquakes are becoming more and more frequent straining severe state members’ resources and capabilities. Cybersecurity threats and the rapid pace of digital expose ASEAN transformation to risks of cyberattacks and digital inequities. Transnational crimes including human trafficking, drug smuggling and terrorism add layer another of complexity to ASEAN’s security landscape necessitating coordinated responses that are often hindered by differing national policies and priorities.
To address these challenges and bolster its geopolitical competence ASEAN must adopt a multifaceted strategy. Enhancing internal cohesion should be a top priority. Strengthening ASEAN’s institutional framework such as by granting more authority to the Secretariat ASEAN can help improve coordination and decision-making. Bridging economic and political divides among state members requires targeted investments in capacity-building initiatives and infrastructure development in less developed countries. Establishing more robust conflict resolution mechanisms—such as binding agreements on dispute settlement—will further enhance ASEAN’s unity.
Economic integration must also be deepened. Accelerating the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will facilitate seamless trade investment and flows, boosting the region’s global competitiveness. Embracing the digital economy fostering and innovation are equally critical. For instance, expanding digital infrastructure and harmonizing regulations on e-commerce can help ASEAN leverage the opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution. These efforts will not only strengthen intra-ASEAN economic ties but also enhance the bloc’s resilience external against economic shocks.
In the realm of regional security ASEAN must assert its role as a mediator and advocate for multilateralism. The “ASEAN Way” of consensus-building and non-confrontation remains a valuable diplomatic tool for managing tensions among major powers. By positioning itself as a neutral platform for dialogue ASEAN can mitigate the risk of U. S. -China rivalry spilling over into Southeast Asia. Moreover, ASEAN should expand its role in addressing non-traditional security threats by fostering regional cooperation on disaster preparedness cybersecurity and environmental sustainability.
Strengthening external partnerships is another critical strategy. ASEAN must manage great-power competition maintaining a delicate balance between engaging with major powers and safeguarding its centrality. Diversifying strategic alliances—such as deepening ties with the European Union, Australia and Africa—can reduce dependency on any single power and enhance ASEAN’s strategic autonomy. Promoting a rules-international based order through participation in global institutions like the United Nations further ASEAN’s geopolitical relevance.
In conclusion, ASEAN’s geopolitical competence in 2025 will depend on its ability to adapt to a rapidly evolving global landscape. While the bloc has demonstrated remarkable resilience and achievements in fostering regional stability and economic growth, it must significantly overcome internal and external challenges to remain the cornerstone of regional and global diplomacy. By enhancing internal cohesion, economic deepening integration asserting its role in regional security and externally strengthening partnerships ASEAN can navigate these complexities and reaffirm its position as a central player in the multipolar world. Adaptability and unity will be the key determinants of ASEAN’s success in the years to come.
In this article, the author expresses his personal view.
References
- Acharya, Amitav. The Making of Southeast Asia: International Relations of a Region. Cornell University Press, 2012.
- Beeson, Mark. Rethinking Regionalism: Europe and East Asia in Comparative Perspective. Palgrave Macmillan, 2019.
- Severino, Rodolfo C. Southeast Asia in Search of an ASEAN Community: Insights from the Former ASEAN Secretary-General. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2006.