Bangladesh: The Eye Of A Storm – Analysis
By SATP
By Sanchita Bhattacharya
2024 was a watershed year for Bangladesh, as an elected Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, within seven months of taking oath for her fifth term (and fourth consecutive term) as Prime Minister, was forced not only to resign, but to flee Bangladesh, on August 5, 2024. Later, on August 8, an Interim Government led by Muhammad Yunus, was formed under the aegis of the Bangladesh Army and various Islamic radical elements.
Before Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh experienced violence and vandalism. The protests against the Quota System eventually became fierce in nature. The turmoil started after a High Court decision (June 5, 2024) reinstated a 30 per cent quota for family members of freedom fighters, who had fought during the Liberation movement of 1971. According to the High Court, the Government was free to reform the quota if it saw fit.
However, on July 10, the Supreme Court suspended the High Court’s order for a month, and was set to hear the Government’s challenge on August 7. Nevertheless, commencing on July 14, the protests took a dark turn after a statement by Hasina on television in which she refused to accept any demands of the protestors, referred to them as razakars (members of an East Pakistan paramilitary force that opposed the freedom struggle of 1971 and collaborated with the Pakistan Army in its genocide). Violence intensified as the BTV building was torched on July 18; protestors attacked the former Mayor of Ghazipur, Jahangir Alam, and killed his bodyguard on July 19; and in Narsingdi District, protestors stormed a jail and freed hundreds of inmates before setting the building on fire.
Under pressure, the Supreme Court preponed its verdict on July 21, curtailing the quota of Mukti Jodhha’s families from 30 per cent to 5 per cent, with 93 per cent of positions now to be filled on merit. The remaining two per cent were assigned to people with disability, ethnic minorities, and transgender individuals. The Court also urged student protesters to return to their classes. Meanwhile, on July 31, Hasina government announced a ban on the Jamaat-e-Isami (JeI) and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS). The Government claimed it had sufficient evidence that JeI and ICS were involved in killings, destructive and terrorist activities directly and through incitement. Following this ban, the situation became more tumultuous and countrywide protests, gradually led by Islamist radical elements, ultimately forced Hasina to flee Bangladesh and take refuge in India.
Later, on September 4, the 13- member committee, formed by Health Ministry identified over 17,000 cases of fatalities and injuries at various hospitals across the country between July 17, 2024, and August 5, 2024. Also, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) of the United Nations, in its report titled Preliminary Analysis of Recent Protests and Unrest in Bangladesh, published on August 16, 2024, observed that between 16 July and 11 August, more than 600 people were killed. Of these, nearly 400 deaths were reported from 16 July to 4 August, while around 250 people were reportedly killed following a new wave of protests between 5 and 6 August.
However, apart from the Quota protest, according to partial data collated by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) through 2024, there was not a single case of a fatality related to proscribed Islamist terrorist groups reported in the country, continuing with the trend established in the previous years, 2023, 2022 and 2021.
2024 recorded a total of 29 arrests of Islamist terrorists/radicals belonging to various groups, including 21 Ansar al-Islam/Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), four Jama’atul Ansar fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS), three Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT), and one ICS cadre.
However, at least 32 incidents of violence were reported in Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh in 2024. At least 38 persons (32 civilians, 1 SF trooper and 5 militants) were killed, and another 19 civilians were injured, in these incidents. The Rohingya crisis in Bangladesh, is aggravating due to armed conflict in the neighbouring Rakhine province of Myanmar. On December 23, Home Advisor Mohammad Jahangir Alam Chowdhury asserted that the government would not bring any change to its decision on preventing Rohingya entry to Bangladesh. On December 22, Touhid Hossain, Foreign Affairs Adviser added that, amid escalating conflict between the junta government and Arakan Army (AA) in Myanmar, a fresh 60,000 Rohingya had entered Bangladesh in the preceding two months. Local sources indicate that Rohingya are entering through 25-30 points along the Cox’s Bazar and Bandarban borders, including Teknaf’s Jadimora, Damdamia, Keruntali, and Ukhiya’s Balukhali and Anjumanpara.
Explaining the criminal activities of Rohingyas within Bangladesh, a report dated December 14, mentioned 11 militant groups operating out of Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, which include the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), Arakan Rohingya Army (ARA). RSO is suspected to have partnerships with Al-Qaeda in Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) and JeI. These outfits have recruited young orphans (some as young as six years of age) from Rohingya camps in Bangladesh and are training them to fight when they turn teenagers. As reported on September 8, M. Gafuruddin Chowdhury, Chairman of the Ukhiya Panglakhali Union Parishad, noted that, since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, Rohingya infiltration had increased daily due to the lack of law enforcement, with brokers charging BDT 20,000 to BDT 30,000 per person to assist their entry into Bangladesh.
The violence in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) is also continuing. The CHT region, consisting of three hilly and forested southeastern Districts of Bandarban, Rangamati, and Khagracchari, witnessed increasing ethnic violence even after 26 years of the signing of the CHT Accord of 1997. According to partial data collated by SATP, in 2024, 25 fatalities were recorded in CHT, in comparison to 21 in 2023, 15 in 2022, and 10 through 2021. On October 6, the Interim Government imposed a travel ban on Districts of Rangamati, Khagrachhari, and Bandarban due to ethnic tensions between local minority communities and Bengali settlers. In a press statement issued on September 20, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) reported on the clashes and escalating tensions in Khagrachhari and Rangamati, warning that the unrest could lead to severe riots across the three hill districts, and urged everyone to maintain peace and harmony.
Since August 5, JeI has made a political comeback. On August 6, JeI opened its central office at Boro Moghbazar in Dhaka city, after 13 years. Later, on August 28, 2024, the Interim Government lifted the ban (imposed by Hasina’s government on August 1) on JeI and ICS. The Home Ministry stated in its gazette that the government has rescinded the previous circular that banned JeI-ICS, citing the absence of specific evidence linking them to terrorist activities. The present Government believes that these organizations are not involved in such activities.
ICS is also demonstrating its ‘presence’. On October 29, ICS announced its Jahangirnagar University (JU) Committee, in a statement on its Facebook page. On October 28, a Facebook post by ICS revealed that it had 2,200 active members in the Islami University in Kushtia. On October 3, ICS’s Dhaka University (DU) unit declared its full 14-member DU Committee. JeI-ICS are on a path to political resurrection, as their combined capacity was substantially diminished by the Hasina government.
In 2009, Hasina established the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) to try those accused of war crimes. The War Crimes (WC) Trials, which began on March 25, 2010, have so far indicted 50 members of JeI. Prominent leaders of the Jamaat were convicted and hanged, including JeI politician Abdul Quader Mollah (hanged in 2013), Ameer Matiur Rahman Nizami (hanged in 2016) and secretary general Ali Ahsan Mujaheed (hanged in 2015). Ghulam Azam was sentenced to 90 years in prison, while Delawar Hossain Sayedee’s death sentence was commuted to life imprisonment. Both died while serving their jail terms.
Since August, 2024, however, with increased political presence, the JeI-ICS combine is very much present on Bangladesh’s political landscape. On December 15, Mia Golam Parwar, JeI ‘secretary general’ declared that JeI wants to establish an Islamic welfare state in Bangladesh:
The Jamaat’s associate brothers should spread out in the field to make the religion of Allah victorious. They should be by the side of the helpless people in their happiness and sorrow…They should win the hearts of the people with the ideals of Islam. Jamaat-e-Islami will gift the people of this country a developed Islamic welfare state free from hegemony, God willing.
Ominously, after August 5, many radical and extremist operatives have been acquitted or released on bail. As reported on December 24, at least 144 militants belonging to ABT, Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), HuT and others, were released from jails, prominently including: on August 11, a top-listed ICS cadre, Nasir Uddin alias Shibir Nasir, was released from Chattagram Central Jail (Chittagong District) after 26 years; on August 26, ABT ‘chief’ Mufti Jashimuddin Rahmani was released on bail from Kashimpur High-Security Central Jail in Gazipur District of Dhaka Division; on October 22, 41 leaders of JeI-ICS were acquitted by a court after 11 years in a case filed under the Speedy Trial Act in Rangpur District; on October 24, a Narayanganj court acquitted Mamunul Haque, former ‘joint secretary general’ of Hefazat-e-Islam (HeI) and secretary general of Khelafat Majlish, in a rape case filed at the Sonargaon Police Station in 2021.
Besides, religious minorities, have been going through harrowing times, as the Jihadi element within Bangladesh society now operate with absolute impunity. According to partial data collated by SATP, since August 5, 2024, there have been at least 27 instances of minority persecution in Bangladesh. Minorities have been subjected to lynching, arrest, robbery, desecration of their temples, land grabbing, etc. The affected Districts were Kishoreganj, Netrokona, Sunamganj, Moulvibazar in the east; Mymensingh, Rangpur, Kurigram, Dinajpur in the north; Khulna, Patuakhali and Lakshmipur in the south; Rajshahi in the west; and Rangamati in the CHT, among others.
On August 13, the Bangladesh Jatiya Hindu Mahazot (BJHM), an alliance of 23 Hindu religious organisations, said that following the fall of the Hasina government, the Hindu community faced attacks and threats in 278 locations across 48 districts. Furthermore, there have been incidents of vandalism in Sufi shrines. On September 10, a mob attacked the Shah Paran shrine in Sylhet District; on September 13, the shrine of Fakir Charu Miji Shah in Laxminarayanpur of Noakhali District was vandalised; on November 26, an incident of vandalism, looting and arson took place at the shrine of Murshidpur Pir in the Lachmanpur area of Sherpur District.
After the initial anti Awami League furor, which was the common point of convergence for all radical organisations, led by the JeI-BNP cohort, there are reports suggesting infightings between these groups. For instance, on December 21, 10 people were injured in a clash between JeI and BNP at Sagata Upazila (Sub-District) in Gaibandha District. Police said that the clash took place over the naming of a BNP leader in an Islamic meeting in Saghata Sardar Para village. On December 2, HeI condemned and protested a case filed against its prominent Islamic scholars and leaders, by a follower of the Maulana Saad faction of Tablighi Jamaat, with the Joint District Judge’s Court in Dhaka District. In a statement sent to the media, HeI ‘secretary general’ Sajidur Rahman called for the immediate withdrawal of the case, terming it as an attempt to malign the country’s respected Islamic scholars. Earlier, as reported on November 29, Amir Nurul Kabir of JeI’s Mirsrai Upazila branch said that the convenor of the Mirsrai Municipality Jubo Dal (youth wing of BNP), Kamrul Hasan, attacked JeI leaders and workers. On October 10, Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB) ‘district president’ Mufti Maulana Habibur Rahman accused BNP members of collecting BDT 401.7 million in extortion since August 5 in the Kalapara and Rangabali Upazilas of Patuakhali District.
Under the ongoing mayhem in the country, the caretaker government and its radical cohorts are trying to carve out their own areas of influence. With no declared date for future election, even after five months, the country is at the mercy of extremist elements. Their agenda of a totalitarian regime in the garb of a ‘welfare Islamic state’ will ultimately lead Bangladesh into an extremist darkness.
- Sanchita Bhattacharya
Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management