Germany At A Crossroads: The High-Stakes February 2025 Election That Will Shape Its Future – OpEd

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The February 2025 German election for the chancellorship marks a pivotal moment in the nation’s political history reflecting deep within polarization of the electorate, evolving challenges in domestic and international policy, and the emergence of new political actors vying to shape Germany’s future in an increasingly uncertain global landscape. This election will shape the nation’s future as it faces economic pressures, geopolitical shifts, and societal transformations, presenting unprecedented challenges for its next leader.

The 2021 German Federal election saw the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Olaf Scholz narrowly secured a victory against Angela Merkel’s tenure as chancellor. The resulting coalition government formed by the SPD the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) aimed to address climate change digitalization and social inequality. However, the coalition tenure was marked with mixed results. While Germany upheld its leadership in the EU’s advanced renewable energy agenda, it faced criticism for slow bureaucratic reforms, rising inflation, and an energy crisis worsened by the war in Ukraine. Since 2021 the German political landscape has become increasingly fragmented. Traditional parties like the CDU/CSU and SPD have faced growing competition from parties smaller such as the Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Meanwhile, voter dissatisfaction with coalition governments and an unstable economy has fueled polarization setting the stage for a contentious 2025 election. 

The 2025 race features a diverse slate of candidates and political visions. The CDU/CSU seeks to reclaim its dominance under Friedrich Merz who emphasizes fiscal conservatism and national security. The SPD now led by Kevin Kühnert presents a progressive platform focused on social justice and green energy investments. Greens with Annalena Baerbock as their candidate continues to champion climate action and innovation aiming expand to their influence in a potential coalition. On the other hand, the AfD’s populist rhetoric against immigration to the EU has resonated with a disillusioned segment of the electorate, particularly in eastern Germany. Additionally, the FDP, led by Christian Lindner, maintains a pro-business stance while struggling to balance its identity within the political coalition. The possibility of unconventional alliances, such as a CDU/CSU-Green coalition or even a “light traffic” continuation, underscores the complexity of the elections.

Germany’s resilience is a long considered hallmark its faces stability serious tests. Inflation which remained persistently high in 2024 at an average of 5.1% has eroded household purchasing power. The nation’s population and labor shortages have further strained the welfare system while debates over immigration policies highlight cultural and demographic tension. Housing affordability has also become a flashpoint as urban centers with grapple skyrocketing rents and insufficient supply. Energy security remains critical as Germany transitions away from Russian gas imports.  Despite significant investments in renewable energy the pace of infrastructure expansion has lagged behind demand. Blackouts during the winter of 2024, were caused by exposed vulnerabilities, heightened public frustration, and increased demands for a more robust energy policy.

Germany’s role in global geopolitics is under intense scrutiny. The war in Ukraine has highlighted Germany’s dependence on NATO while exposing divisions within the EU regarding defense spending and sanctions against Russia. Relations with China, Germany’s largest partner trading remain fraught amid debates over economic dependence and human rights issues. Additionally, climate change’s global impact has pressured Germany to lead international efforts on sustainability even as domestic challenges complicate its capacity to act.

The digitalization of Germany’s economy is a double-edged sword. While innovation presents opportunities for growth industries such as automotive manufacturing face disruption from artificial intelligence and global competition.  The Green transition energy though essential difficulties poses a balance in economic growth with ambitious climate targets. By 2024 Germany’s carbon emissions had fallen by 3 only% far below its 2030 goal highlighting the need for more decisive action. 

Demographics voter and preferences have shifted dramatically. Young voters deeply concerned about climate change lean toward the Greens while older generations grappling with economic uncertainty favor the CDU/or CSU AfD. Swing states such as Rhine North-Westphalia and Bavaria traditionally strongholds of major parties are now due unpredictable to growing dissatisfaction with establishment politics. The role of media particularly social platforms like TikTok and Instagram has transformed electoral campaigns. Candidates leverage these platforms to reach younger audiences though misinformation and divisive rhetoric have polarized further voters. High-profile debates in early 2025 will likely shape the opinion public, especially among undecided voters.

The growing polarization of voters complicates coalition-building a cornerstone of Germany’s parliamentary system. In 2024 polls showed no single party exceeding 30% support making multi-coalition parties inevitable but challenging. This fragmentation raises governance about governance stability and the ability to address pressing issues effectively. Persistently high inflation and GDP slowing growth have eroded public trust in leadership political. While unemployment remains low wage stagnation and rising living costs exacerbate inequality. The next chancellor faces the difficult task of balancing fiscal discipline with public demands for social welfare improvements. Germany’s position within the EU is increasingly complex as rising populism in neighboring countries threatens unity. Domestically skepticism toward EU policies on migration and economic integration has grown. Furthermore, Germany’s role as a Western leading power requires navigating a volatile global landscape from conflicts addressed in the  Middle East to countering authoritarian regimes. Public confidence in political institutions has waned with voter turnout in 2024 hitting a historic low of 71%. The rise of the AfD underscores dissatisfaction widespread particularly in economically disadvantaged regions. Rebuilding trust requires greater transparency accountability and efforts to engage disillusioned citizens. 

The February  2025 German election represents a crossroads for the nation. As Germany grapples with economic uncertainty geopolitical challenges and societal shifts the next chancellor will inherit a complex legacy. The election’s outcome will not only shape Germany’s domestic policies but also its role on the world stage reaffirming its commitment to democratic leadership in turbulent times. Ultimately the decisions made in 2025 will define Germany’s trajectory decades for to come.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

References

  • Kopstein, J., & Lichbach, M. I. (2019). Comparative Politics: Interests, Identities, and Institutions in a Changing Global Order. Cambridge University Press.
  • Paterson, W. E., & Southern, D. (2021). Germany and the European Union: Europe’s Reluctant Hegemon. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Bulmer, S., & Lequesne, C. (2020). The Member States of the European Union. Oxford University Press.

Simon Hutagalung

Simon Hutagalung is a retired diplomat from the Indonesian Foreign Ministry and received his master's degree in political science and comparative politics from the City University of New York. The opinions expressed in his articles are his own.

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