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War In Ukraine ‘Will Lead To Revision Of Borders’ That Could Threaten Moscow’s Interests – OpEd

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Speculation about the future borders of Ukraine and of geopolitical relations in the lands in between the Russian Federation and the European Union is intensifying even as the fighting continues, Vladimir Vinokurov says. But one thing is obvious, this war “will lead to the revision of borders,” both of individual countries and of alliances among them.

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And those changes, the professor at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy suggests, will affect not only the region but the world because when borders change in one place, that almost inevitably raises questions about borders elsewhere and thus can trigger developments far and wide (nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2022-06-02/1_1191_appetite.html).

“The closer to the end of the special military operation of Russian in Ukraine, Vinokurov says, “the more speculation there is in the expert community relative to the future fate of Ukraine.” Kyiv is certainly going to have to make territorial concessions, however much it now says it is against them.

And the ones it will make to Russia will lead Poland and Hungary to insist on border changes or at least alliance changes in the western part of Ukraine, with the near certainty that those changes, some of which Kyiv in desperation may support, will work against Russia’s interests and thus are something Moscow must focus on and oppose.

Ukraine may disappear completely as an independent state, something Putin has said he favors; but if this happens as a result of the advance of countries and alliances to the West into what is now Ukrainian territory, Moscow may face new problems. Consequently, it must oppose any such border changes in the west even while insisting on them in the east.

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Paul Goble

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Earlier, he served as vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. He has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Goble maintains the Window on Eurasia blog and can be contacted directly at [email protected] .

One thought on “War In Ukraine ‘Will Lead To Revision Of Borders’ That Could Threaten Moscow’s Interests – OpEd

  • June 21, 2022 at 5:59 pm
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    With all due respect, your article seems to be incomplete. You did not explain how the border changes in east of Ukraine , will cause border changes in the western part of Ukraine (with Poland and Hungry?), as you imply in your article.

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