Implications Of Indo-US Strategic Partnership On South Asia – OpEd

The south Asia region is setting the stage for the great power competition, as China and US use diplomacy to contain each other, leading to increase rivalry. The US dominance has been challenged by China, a rising economic power in the region. Over two decades, the US has strengthened its strategic partnership with India through initiatives like QUAD and I2U2, aimed at  countering China’s growing influence and maintaining the dominant status of US in the Indo Pacific region. This partnership includes cooperation in trade, defense, technology, and various other fields, which has deep implications for South Asia, a region already burdened with historical rivalry, arms race, and under developed infrastructure. As a result South Asia has become victim of the new great powers competition. The rivalry between the major players affects the smaller states of the region, consequently, the expanding Indo-US strategic partnership is continuously hindering the regional cooperation in South Asia.

Furthermore, China is one of the emerging dominant powers in the world, having developed various projects such as Infrastructure development in Srilanka, military cooperation with the Maldives and CPEC project in Pakistan to counter influence of United States. On other hand India and the US have deepened the strategic partnership, which has gravely impacted the South Asian nations. The shared political interests of India and US in countering China had led to significant changes in both countries policies. Additionally the shift in US foreign policy towards India has strengthened China’s partnership in South Asia, escalating geopolitical tensions in the region. 

The Indo-US partnership has been marked by numerous agreements including Civil Nuclear Agreement 2005, Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in 2016, Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018 and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020. The Civil Nuclear Agreement of 2005 un-officially granted the India the status of De-facto nuclear state and lifted technological restrictions allowing India to modernize its military capabilities. As a result the Indo-US partnership is accelerating military modernization and triggering an arms race in the region, raising security concerns for countries like China and Pakistan. 

Moreover, the Indo-US partnership appears to move away from conflict resolution mechanism in the region, allowing India to strengthen its influence both regionally and beyond. For instance 2019 Balakot crisis and the Indian submarine incursion near Pakistan’s territorial water highlighting India’s aggressive behavior. However Pakistan as a responsible actor, always strives to maintain peace and stability. While the US has historically acted as a mediator in India and Pakistan relations, its increasing partnership with India is undermining its neutrality in the conflict. Consequently, India’s refusal to restart confidence-building measures, coupled with its irresponsible and belligerent behavior and tolerance from the US  allows India to dominate the South Asian region. 

Additionally, The Indo-US partnership is fulfills the economic interests of both countries through trade and investment in defense, information technology and in energy sector. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) 2024, India is the largest arms importer in the world. It imports about 9.8% of the total global arms supply.  However 62% of these imports come from Russian and 10% from US, Therefore, the US is enhancing its cooperation with India to encourage the country to reduce its dependency on Russian weapons and shift more of its arms import from Russia to US. This shift would lead to economic gains for the US and further increase its influence in South Asia, enabling it to counter the economic rise of China and Russia.

Although China founded the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project for regional connectivity, many of the smaller states of South Asia such as Pakistan, Srilanka, Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh have joined it. Analogously the US and India have also initiated the Build Better World (B3W) and India Middle East Europe (IMEC) projects to counter the China’s influence in the region. However this situation presents a herculean task for the smaller states of the South Asia which must decide whether to align with China, Indo-US or to remain neutral. This growing polarization adds to the regions geopolitical challenges.

As a result, Indo-US strategic partnership is causing significant geo-political changes in South Asia. It has undermined the effectiveness of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) by reinforcing India’s aggressive posture, which exacerbates regional tensions and fuels an arms race. This increases the likelihood discord and hampers conflict resolution efforts. Furthermore, non-traditional security threats such as climate change, poverty, and food security are being left unaddressed due to India’s non-cooperative policy in the region. Ultimately, the Indo-US strategic cooperation is transforming South Asia in to a hotspot for the great-power competition, contributing to the regional instability rather than enhancing cooperation and resolving existing tensions.