Indonesia’s Assertive Foreign Policy Under Prabowo: Balancing Regional Leadership And Global Engagement – OpEd

Under the leadership of Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s foreign policy is anticipated to experience a more assertive shift in response to the evolving dynamics within Southeast Asia and the broader geopolitical landscape. Historically, Indonesia has adhered to an independent and active  (bebas-aktif) foreign policy, characterised by non-alignment and active participation in multilateral diplomacy. However, the increasing complexity of regional disputes, the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China, and Prabowo’s defence-focused background suggest a potential departure from Indonesia’s traditionally cautious approach. 

This emerging strategy may result in Indonesia adopting a more proactive role within regional security frameworks, modernising its military capabilities, and leveraging its strategic geopolitical position to foster global partnerships. While this shift presents promising opportunities, it also introduces challenges related to balancing regional leadership, defence posture, and global engagement. 

In the context of Prabowo’s likely foreign policy, a primary focus will be the establishment of Indonesia as a regional leader within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). As Southeast Asia grapples with rising tensions in the South China Sea and broader security issues, Indonesia’s leadership could play a pivotal role in shaping regional security frameworks. Prabowo may advocate for a more robust ASEAN that transcends consensus-based decision-making, aiming to create a more decisive body capable of addressing external threats. His previous experience as defence minister could inspire Indonesia to promote stronger military collaboration within ASEAN, including joint exercises and enhanced disaster relief capabilities, particularly in areas vulnerable to external aggression. 

Indonesia’s approach to the South China Sea may also become more assertive. Although it has previously avoided confrontation, Prabowo’s administration might adopt a firmer stance on defending its maritime claims in the Natuna Islands. Expanding naval capabilities and increasing patrols in contested areas may signify Indonesia’s determination to assert its claims, potentially positioning it as a mediator in disputes among ASEAN members and external powers.

An essential component of Prabowo’s foreign policy will also involve the strengthening of Indonesia’s defence posture. Southeast Asian nations, including Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand, have been modernising their military forces in response to regional threats, and Indonesia is likely to pursue a similar path. Prabowo’s defence-oriented background suggests a significant emphasis on enhancing Indonesia’s military through investments in advanced technologies, including fighter jets, naval vessels, and missile defence systems. Modernising the navy and air force is critical to securing Indonesia’s extensive maritime territory, particularly in light of its strategic location along major shipping routes.

However, Indonesia’s military modernisation will not be confined to conventional threats. Increased investments in cybersecurity and counterterrorism initiatives will be essential to address challenges posed by non-state actors. With the rise of cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure in the region, Indonesia’s security apparatus is likely to prioritise the enhancement of its digital defence systems and the strengthening of collaboration with international partners for intelligence sharing. Additionally, fortifying capabilities to counter-terrorism, particularly in regions susceptible to radicalism and piracy, will complement these broader defence efforts.

Indonesia’s assertive foreign policy is expected to extend beyond regional concerns, with global engagement emerging as a central focus. The intensification of the US-China rivalry presents Indonesia with opportunities to leverage its non-aligned stance for strategic advantage. As the United States seeks to consolidate alliances in Asia to counterbalance China’s influence, Indonesia could assume a pivotal role in managing relations with both nations. The administration under Prabowo may pursue stronger defence ties with the United States, potentially securing military aid and participating in joint military exercises while concurrently fostering robust economic and trade relations with China. This diplomatic balancing act could enhance Indonesia’s geopolitical significance and facilitate negotiations for favourable terms in defence procurement, technology transfer, and infrastructure development. 

In addition to bilateral engagements, Indonesia may aspire to position itself as a mediator in managing regional disputes arising from US-China tensions. Such a role could elevate its diplomatic profile and strengthen its status as a strategic power broker in Southeast Asia. However, global engagement will not be limited to interactions with great powers. Prabowo’s administration could seek to deepen strategic partnerships with other significant global players, including Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. Cultivating closer economic ties with these nations will be crucial for diversifying Indonesia’s partnerships, reducing dependency on China and the United States, and attracting foreign direct investment in critical industries such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and defence.

While Prabowo’s assertive foreign policy presents considerable opportunities for Indonesia, it also poses challenges. Increased military spending may exert pressure on the nation’s budget, particularly if economic growth decelerates. Moreover, balancing Indonesia’s assertive stance in the South China Sea with its leadership role in ASEAN may prove complex, given that other member states might adopt varying approaches to managing relations with China. Overextending military ambitions, in conjunction with Indonesia’s traditional non-aligned position, may risk alienating key partners. Additionally, navigating global pressures will necessitate careful diplomacy to avoid becoming ensnared in the broader US-China conflict.

In conclusion, Indonesia’s assertive foreign policy under Prabowo Subianto is poised to significantly reshape its regional and global engagement strategies. By emphasizing the enhancement of regional leadership, defence modernisation, and the establishment of global partnerships, Prabowo’s administration holds the potential to elevate Indonesia’s standing within Southeast Asia and the broader international community. Nonetheless, the effectiveness of this policy will be contingent upon Indonesia’s ability to reconcile its ambitions with the economic and diplomatic constraints it encounters. To adeptly navigate these challenges, Indonesia must prioritise regional cooperation within the ASEAN framework while concurrently bolstering its defence capabilities. Moreover, a careful and strategic diplomatic balancing act among global powers will be crucial for ensuring Indonesia’s strategic autonomy and fostering sustainable growth.

References

he opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

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