Pakistan: Launching New Military Operation Facing Tough Resistance From Political Parties and Pashtoon Population; What Needs To Be Done By The Establishment? – OpEd

On June 23, Pakistan announced another new military operation Azm-e-Istehkam, meaning “Resolve for Stability”, to escalate its ongoing counterterrorism campaign amid a surge in TTP-led militant violence from neighboring Afghanistan. 

This initiative aims to curb the surge in attacks since the TTP unilaterally ended a ceasefire in November 2022. Founded in 2007, TTP is advocating for the reversal of the merger of the northwestern tribal regions with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and the imposition of stricter Islamic laws.

Chronological History of Previous Military Operations

Pakistan launched several military operations in the past that resulted in the deaths, disabilities, displacement, and destruction of millions of Pashtuns in KP province. The statistics from the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) associated with the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi and other anti-war groups reported that approximately 80,000 people mostly in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwawere killed in the war against terror. The report further noted that about 26,862 terrorists and 5,498 security forces personnel had lost their lives.

Prominent Among the Military Operations Were:

• Operation al-Mizan was a series of strategic military campaigns conducted by the Pakistan Army from 2002 to 2006.
• The First Battle of Swat, also known as Operation Rah-e-Haq, took place in late 2007 and involved a conflict between Pakistan and the Tehrik-i-Taliban for control of the Swat District. 
• The Battle of Bajaur, also called Operation Sherdil, was another military campaign in the Bajaur region. It was launched on August 7, 2008.
• Operation Zalzala was a Pakistan Army military offensive and so-called counter-insurgent operation that commenced on January 18, 2008. 
• The Second Battle of Swat, also known as Operation Rah-e-Rast, began in May 2009 and involved the Pakistan Army and Tehrik-i- Taliban Pakistan militants in a struggle for control over the Swat district. 
• Operation Rah-e-Nijat was an offensive military operation conducted by the Pakistan Armed Forces against (TTP) and other extremists in the South Waziristan area of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The operation commenced on June 19, 2009, and a major ground-air offensive was launched.
• Operation Koh-e-Sufaid was launched in Kurram Agency in 2011. It took place from July 4 to August 18, 2011, with the primary objective of dismantling Taliban structures in the Kurram Agency and securing the Thall-Parachinar.
• Operation Zarb-e-Azb was aimed at combating the (TTP), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement for the security, as well as targeting Al-Qaeda and the Haqqani Network.  It was initiated on June 15, 2014, in North Waziristan, resulting in the internal displacement of approximately one million Pashtuns from the region within just one month, witnessing the destruction of their homes, markets, forests, roads, clinics, schools, etc. 

Factors Leading to a New Military Operation

Pakistan has witnessed a significant increase in terrorist attacks over the past 18 months, with more than 700 attacks reported in 2023 alone by the TTP, resulting in nearly 1,000 deaths both civilian and law enforcement persons, with most attacks occurring in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province followed by TTP and BLA in the province of Balochistan. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), in 34 BLA-linked incidents recorded in 2024, at least 97 persons, including 17 civilians, 59 SF personnel, and 21 militants, have been killed.

Blame game and mistrust. Despite numerous high-level visits to Kabul, including those by the defense minister and ISI chief, mutual distrust between Pakistan and the Taliban-led government persists. Islamabad blames the recent uptick in attacks on Afghanistan, saying TTP leaders have taken refuge there and run camps to train militants to launch attacks inside Pakistan. The Afghan government says rising violence in Pakistan is Pakistan’s domestic issue and it does not allow militants to operate on its territory against any country including Pakistan. 

Chinese factors. The newly launched operation also addresses concerns from China, a key ally and investor in Pakistan’s infrastructure through the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The security of Chinese nationals and projects has become critical following multiple attacks, including the death of five Chinese engineers in March 2024. In the wake of escalating threats to the (CPEC) from (TTP) and Baloch extremist groups, Pakistan has found it necessary to initiate a new Operation, “Azm-e-Istehkam”. 

Indian factors. In this regard, Pakistan’s perspective is clear: India fuels this fire by supporting and financing TTP. This alleged support takes multiple forms, weakening Pakistan’s security from within. Secondly, with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, India is exploiting its potential influence with the new regime to create safe havens for the TTP in Afghanistan, facilitating even more cross-border attacks. Thirdly, India has been exploiting Pakistan’s internal ethnic and sectarian fault lines. India allegedly creates fertile ground for the TTP extremist and BLA insurgents to destabilize Pakistan.

Difficulties in the Way of Launching New Military Operation

The first and foremost is the Lack of public support for the new operation, particularly in the violence-affected provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa followed by Baluchistan, which could hinder the operation’s effectiveness.

Opposition parties, including the PTI, JUI-F, ANP, PKMAP of Mehmood khan Achakzai, PTM of Manzoor Pashtoon, JI, and PKNAP of Khushal group have rejected the military operation. Leaders of all those parties have called on the government to take the public of the KP and parliament into confidence before launching such a new military operation. 

Second, the most important and primary criticism from KPK’s political parties, civil society, and people at large, revolves around the lack of transparency and accountability regarding the outcomes of previous military operations. Particularly operation Rah-e-Haq and Operation Zarb-e-Azb, have left lasting negative impacts on the minds of local populations in the shape of large-scale Displacement, and loss of their businesses and livelihood. The people of KP’s merged districts are suffering a lot as the state has failed to fulfill its commitments to mainstreaming and resettlement of displaced in these areas. 

Therefore, the anger against the state institutions is at its peak, the common man in these districts and other parts of the Province of KP is not ready to accept the launching of another military operation and the return of the TTP in the province. They largely considered such government initiatives to exploit their mines and minerals resources in the province. They feel alienated from all walks of life in the country and wonder about the resurrection of TTP in their province despite the fancied and heavily guarded border with Afghanistan.

On the other hand, contrary to the public sentiments, the security establishment warns it will respond with indiscriminate military operations to crush ‘terrorism’, without explaining to the public their failure to fulfill their past commitments and why innumerable operations in the past did not cut off what appears to be a never-ending supply of ‘terrorists’. and resurgence after a short period.

Consequently, trouble and mistrust are running high between the government and the public where terrorist attacks are growing, particularly after the two assaults on a cantonment and a rural health center in Banu and DeraIsmail Khan districts of KP respectively, which claimed the lives of 15 Pakistanis, including 10 soldiers, allegedly carried out by the TTP. Consider, for example, that the first reaction from Banu residents to the assault was to state that, they would not evacuate the area in case of a military operation. Locals said they would rather stand up and fight the terrorists themselves than abandon their homes for another antiterrorism drive.

Third, it is different than previous military operations in several respects. First, it has been announced in an environment wherein the U.S. has left Afghanistan and there is no international funding available for counterterrorism campaigns. Pakistan depends on (IMF)’s bailout packages, and funding a new kinetic campaign is a question mark.

Fourth, the operation has been announced at a time when the Pakistani polity is polarized and the state-society gap is alarmingly high. Further, lack of institutional uniformity, and the economy is in the doldrums. Against this backdrop, a judicious implementation of Azm-e-Istehkam seems difficult. This situation will hinder the government’s effort to forge a national consensus against another military operation.

Finally, Pakistan has initiated several counterterrorism and counter-extremism initiatives in the past as well, which looked very comprehensive on paper, but their poor implementation undermined their efficacy. 

What Needs to be Done?

Pakistan’s fight against terrorism and extremism requires a multi-pronged approach. The current strategy of launching a series of military operations needs a paradigm shift from reactive to proactive. The success of any counter-terrorism operation hinges on the support and cooperation of the local population and their representatives. Ensuring that past mistakes are not repeated and fostering a collaborative approach involving all stakeholders is imperative. 

Addressing terrorism and extremism is not merely a military endeavor but a societal one. Unfortunately, our societal fabric has been marred by extremist ideologies not just on religious grounds but also on political and linguistic bases due to wrong policies in the past. To tackle the terrorists and prevent the spread of extremist ideologies, it requires effective legislation and judicial processes to prosecute terrorists and dismantle their networks.

Notwithstanding the importance of military operations, it is important that the government put this matter to debate in the parliament so that a holistic and transparent approach is adopted to combat terrorism and extremism. The new military operation does not plan to displace people from the targeted regions nor does it plan to launch a full-spectrum kinetic attack.

The people of Pakistan are willing to eradicate terrorism and extremism from their society but Working together with the relevant stakeholders, it can be done. The right step has to be taken in the right direction at the right time; otherwise, it will all be counterproductive and loss of human and financial resources.

The ruling elites both civil and military are to critically and analytically evaluate the highly charged situation, particularly after killing of a famous Pashto poet Gillaman in Islamabad followed by violent clashes between security forces and unarmed protesters in Banu district of KPK. The headship must review their failures in the past, read from history with an open mind, and take steps for pragmatic decision-making with clarity, and analytical skills to engage the public for restoring peace with in prior launching new military operation.

In conclusion, what Pakistan needs in such a critical situation is; a Singaporean model of peaceful coexistence, tolerance, debate, inclusiveness, and acceptance within the country which could yield unity in diversity, resulting in overall societal peace and security.

Second, the Colombian model; Colombia was plagued by issues similar to those in Pakistan today. Political instability, institution ineffectiveness. Additionally, socioeconomic inequality, porous and unregulated borders, historical conflicts, and external interference weakened the country. in the year 2000, Colombia, with the backing of the US, devised a plan known as “Plan Colombia”, consisting of four pillars. The first was to fight terrorism, and narcotics, the second to strengthen governmental institutions and the judicial system, the third was economic and social revitalization and the final was the process for peace and reintegration. The Truth, Justice, and Reparation Commission was established to investigate human rights violations and provide reparations to victims. Pakistan’s leadership should learn from those good practices to manage a crisis and multiple challenges particularly the menace of extremism and terrorism facing the country once again.