US Political Outreach To China Imperiously ReBuffed -Analysis


Manifesting Communist China’s current supercharged aggressive mood US President Joe Biden’s well-intentioned political outreach in November 2021 to Communist China to defuse highly surcharged strategic environment over Taiwan was imperiously rebuffed by President Xi Jinping.

Perceptional analysis of this Virtual Meet TV Visuals clearly indicates that not only the body-language of Communist China’s President Xi Jinping but also his grim visage in responding to President Joe Biden’s opening pleasantries were one of imperial condescension.

In terms of substantive outcomes of defusing the ongoing escalating conflictual overtones of Communist China’s heightened belligerence over Taiwan, the foregone conclusion was that such a Virtual Meet of Communist China’s President Xi Jinping with US President Joe Biden would in the end up as a ‘Dialogue of the Deaf’.

Communist Chinese President Xi Jinping expectedly stuck to his imperial postures over all of Communist China’s so-called ‘Core Issues’ which place Beijing on collision trajectories with the United States.

Political dialogues at the highest Summit Levels presuppose that some homework and backroom consultations would obviously have been resorted to by both sides as an enabling factor for further Summit Dialogues by conceding some conciliatory overtures.

Analytically, the November 2021 Virtual Meet between American President Biden and Communist Chinese President Xi Jinping did not reflect even remotely any of the above highlighted ingredients.

Starkly staring in United States face was the inescapable reality that Communist China in November 2021 was in a strategically challenging mood and was militarily prepared to go to any lengths for military intervention against Taiwan to merge it with Communist China Mainland.

The above strategic reality was also a foregone conclusion even before this Virtual Meet, at least to me, and would have similarly struck many in the US strategic community and worldwide too. 

Host of vexing questions arise therefore as to what impelled the Washington policy establishment to advise US President Joe Biden to make this political outreach to Communist China in November 2021. Major questions that plague strategically are (1) Was the impact on Indo Pacific Nations of a dead-end Virtual Meet in terms of its impact on US strategic credibility were taken into account? (2) Were there any indicators in Washington suggesting that Communist China might be inclined to adopt some conflict de-escalation over Taiwan? (3) Where does the United States go now after being imperiously rebuffed by Communist China?

The Washington policy establishment must not be oblivious to the fact that each and every step that the United States makes on Communist China are minutely scrutinised in Indo Pacific capitals from Tokyo to New Delhi. United States credibility cannot take a dent or a dive over any perceived hint of United States appeasement of Communist China. United States political outreach to Communist China in November 2021 fully conscious of the analytical rebuff by Beijing precisely smells of ‘China Appeasement’ by Washington.

The entire world today is aware that Communist China in 2021 in a Hitlerian military aggrandisement mood of achieving the ‘Great China Dream’ has prepared its over-sized military machine to not only evict the United States from the Western Pacific but also challenge the United States global predominance.  Communist China does not seem to be relenting from this course going by available indicators from right across the global strategic calculus. It seems that Washington in 2021 in the absence of such indicators has “Gambled” on vain hopes that some reason and strategic sense would prevail over Communist Chinese President Xi Jinping?

The last question that needs addressing is that where does the United States go to after this imperial rebuff by Communist Chinese President Xi Jinping?  There are no soft options like ‘China Appaesement’available to the United States in light of the current conflictual and conflict-escalation strategies of the United States.

The United States cannot be perceived globally to buckling over Communist China’s aggression against Taiwan. Taiwan is fast approaching the boiling point for Communist China and will sorely test United States resolve and determination.

The global strategic canvass and especially that of the Indo Pacific, unlike World War I and World War II, does not permit the United States to make “late entries” to checkmate ‘Revisionist Powers’ like Communist China. There is a growing bipartisan feeling within the United States that Communist Chinese imperialism in the Indo Pacific has gone too far, from Taiwan to South China Sea and onwards to India’s Himalayan Borders with Communist China Occupied Tibet.

The United States in order to maintain its global predominance as the nett provider of global security and stability cannot be seen at this cortical juncture in 21st Century to be wavering in its intent and capacity for a military showdown with Communist China, if the need so arises. Taiwan seems to be emerging as the starting point.

In terms of global balance of power, the same is not in favour of Communist China, despite the uncertain Communist China-Russia strategic nexus.

Need it be said that the United States has critical economic levers of power to bring Communist China to its knees even before it intends to inflict a ‘Hot War’ on America and its Allies and Strategic Partners. This is despite recent reports that Communist China has outstripped United States as the richest nation in the world. Presumably, the richness of Communist China has not been co-related to its burgeoning expenditures on its vast military machine and also Beijing’s mounting expenses on internal security from Occupied Xingjian and Occupied Tibet to Hong Kong.

Concluding, it needs to be emphasised, to the limits of over-emphasis, that in the ensuing 2020s the US Presidents must shun the Henry Kissinger ill-advised Nixonian precepts of ‘China Appeasement’ hoping that it could offset Russia. Russia today is in an uncertain strategic nexus with Communist China and is having its own strains with Beijing.

Historically and contemporaneously taking into account global perspectives, the United States must be perceived as having overall the “Intent”, “Political Will” and the “Capacity” to confront Communist China’s belligerence wherein the “China Threat” seismic tremors have extended to NATO and the European Union’s Major Nations also.

Dr. Subhash Kapila

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army Brigadier ( Veteran), diplomatic assignments in the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Bhutan. Served in India's Cabinet Secretariat also. He is a Graduate of Royal British Army Staff College, Camberley, UK, Msc Defence Studies from Madras University and a Doctorate in Strategic Studies from Allahabad University. Papers have been presented by him in International Seminars in Japan,Turkey, Russia and Vietnam. Credited to him are over 1,500 Papers on geopolitical & strategic topical issues and foreign policies of USA, Japan, India, China and Indo Pacific Asia. He has authored two Books : "India's Defence Policies & Strategic Thought: A Comparative Analysis" and "China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives"

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