By Vladimir Fedoruk
The U.S. will not hesitate to use any means, including force to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. This was stated by U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta. He threatened to launch pre-emptive attacks if necessary.
The Americans suspect that there is a hidden facility in Iran that may be engaged in enriching nuclear fuel. In fact, there is no convincing evidence to this end. The surveillance services should find them. Earlier, Washington accused Teheran of developing nuclear weapons but now, it publicly said that Iran would have nuclear weapons within a year. Leon Panetta threatened to take measures to disrupt the appearance of nuclear weapons in Iran.
It’s not excluded that preparations are going on to launch an operation but the U.S. officials are talking about their intention to confirm their suspicion to put up a smoke-screen but later, to launch an operation. At the same time, the toughening of Washington’s rhetoric might be linked to its desire to oust the Iranian regime. This opinion was expressed by Professor Sergei Druzhilovsky at the Oriental Studies Department of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
“The Americans need a blitzkrieg – launch strikes, oust the regime and establish a puppet regime. The main thing is to oust the regime which is like a burr in the saddle for the U.S. If there is such a scenario, strikes will be launched for sure. The U.S. wants to oust Ahmadinejad rather than crush the nuclear industry. However, I do not see any possibility of ousting the Iranian regime as a result of foreign pressure on it. On the contrary, with the knowledge of Iranians and their Shiism and sacrifices I can say that the effect will be otherwise. If the Americans miscalculate this and get tangled up in an adventure, it will take years to get out of it,” Sergei Druzhilovsky said.
Nevertheless, Washington has drawn a red line in its relations with Teheran. It plans to act together with Israel to eliminate the Iranian threat. This will heighten the risk of a war in the region which will first and foremost hit the oil market, says an expert at Analytical Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, Vladimir Averchev.
“A war will sky rocket oil prices and the situation will reach close to a state of panic. In response to an attack, Iran is capable of closing the Strait of Ormuz through which the Gulf States export their oil. This will be a disastrous situation for the oil market,” Vladimir Averchev said.
Analysts link the toughening of anti-Iranian rhetoric with the U.S. presidential election campaign which is gaining momentum. The Republicans traditionally reproach the Democrats for their indecisiveness when it concerns national security. They will continue to exert more pressure and Barack Obama will be prompt to react. However, he will hardly decide to take any sharp steps before the elections, but it’s impossible to exclude a scenario of military interference. Moreover, the time framework given to the surveillance services to find a nuclear trail in Iran will expire by that time. A similar task was set concerning Iraq some time ago. Although weapons of mass destruction were not discovered Iraq was invaded. It’s unclear, whether the Pentagon will repeat the same scenario again.