India’s Limited Options Against China: Strategic And Diplomatic Dilemmas – OpEd
Three recent developments involving China are raising alarms in South Asia, with serious implications for the geopolitical landscape, particularly for India. These developments are:
- China’s plan to build a $137 billion Yarlung Tsangpo dam in Tibet, which could generate 40,000 megawatts of electricity annually. This dam, located in Medog County, could potentially be used as a weapon to control and divert the flow of water to India, leading to flooding risks.
- China’s refusal to withdraw troops from areas they intruded upon in 2020, coupled with military drills in Eastern Ladakh to prepare for possible future conflicts with India.
- China restricting the export of critical equipment to India, especially for manufacturing solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics.
These actions indicate that China is unlikely to mend ties with India anytime soon. There’s a growing sentiment that China is determined to prevent India from emerging as a dominant power in Asia.
First, The Yarlung Tsangpo dam project, which will be the world’s largest hydroelectric project, has raised serious concerns. While China claims that the dam is a “run-of-the-river” project meant solely for hydroelectric power, India worries that China could use the dam to control the water flow of the Yarlung Zangbo river, which flows from Tibet to India’s Arunachal Pradesh and then to Bangladesh. If China were to divert or block the flow of water, millions of people downstream in India and Bangladesh could be affected.
Experts, such as Y. Nithiyanandam from the Takshashila Institution, argue that the area chosen for the dam is prone to landslides and is situated on a geological fault line. This poses significant risks to both Tibet and the downstream regions of India and Bangladesh. The dam’s construction could cause environmental damage and displace local Tibetans. Further, it could lead to ecological disaster as the Tibet Plateau to regions seismic activites.
India has expressed its concerns, fearing that China could leverage the dam to choke India’s economy by manipulating the flow of water, potentially affecting vital agricultural regions. A report from the Lowy Institute suggests that controlling the river could significantly impact India and Bangladesh’s water security.
Second, China has refused to pull back its troops from areas where they intruded into India in 2020, contrary to agreements made between the two countries. Chinese military drills in Eastern Ladakh signal preparations for a potential escalation, even though both nations had agreed to disengage their forces in late 2024 following months of tension.
The military situation remains fragile, and while India has been focused on maintaining peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), China’s actions suggest that they are preparing for potential conflict.
Thirdly, China has also restricted the export of critical equipment to India, particularly for the manufacturing of solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics. Taiwanese company Foxconn, which has operations in India, has been significantly affected by China’s move, hindering its efforts to ramp up production.
China’s refusal to supply essential components is seen as an attempt to slow down India’s growth as a manufacturing hub, especially as companies are increasingly moving their operations to countries like India and Vietnam to escape China’s dominance in global trade. China, by adopting this strategy, is forcing companies not to move their facilities from China.
India’s position in the face of China’s rising power is constrained by several factors—geopolitical, economic, military, and diplomatic.
India faces significant challenges in countering China militarily. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is one of the largest and most advanced military forces in the world, with superior technology, resources, and a strategic focus on the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast, India’s military, despite being one of the largest standing armies, struggles to match China’s advancements. The terrain of the disputed border regions, particularly the Himalayas, further complicates military operations.
In recent clashes, like the 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish, India has demonstrated a willingness to confront China militarily, but the risks of escalation into a larger conflict, including the use of nuclear weapons, deter both sides from engaging in full-scale war. Therefore, India’s military options remain limited to smaller-scale confrontations rather than a broader, all-out conflict.
Economically, India is deeply intertwined with China. China is India’s largest trading partner, and many Indian industries rely on Chinese imports, particularly in electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals. While India has taken steps to reduce its dependence on China, such as promoting self-reliance through the “Atmanirbhar Bharat” campaign, complete decoupling is difficult and would likely have severe economic consequences for India, from inflation to supply chain disruptions.
China’s dominance in global supply chains and its economic influence across various regions, including Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, complicates India’s ability to isolate China economically without facing significant repercussions.
Diplomatically, India faces challenges in dealing with China. While India engages China in forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, the strategic mistrust between the two nations makes cooperation difficult. China’s veto power in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has also hindered India’s efforts to isolate Pakistan and designate certain terrorist organizations as global threats.
India has sought to counterbalance China’s influence by strengthening alliances with the United States, Japan, and Australia through the Quad—an alliance aimed at promoting stability in the Indo-Pacific. However, the focus of the Quad is more on diplomacy and regional cooperation rather than direct confrontation. Moreover, China’s growing global influence dilutes India’s ability to rally international support against Chinese actions.
The way forward
India’s options against China are limited by a complex web of military, economic, and diplomatic factors. While India possesses considerable resources and influence, its ability to confront China directly is constrained by the risks of escalation, the complexities of global trade, and China’s deep geopolitical influence.
To meet the Chinese challenge, India must invest in Research and Development, particularly in defense technology, like developing fighter jets and manufacture of jet engines to reduce its overdependence on GE for jet engines to match China’s advancements. However, the prospect of military conflict remains a last resort, given the devastating consequences of escalation. In the long term, India will need to pursue a balanced strategy that involves military preparedness, economic diversification, and strategic diplomacy to safeguard its national interests while managing its complex relationship with China.