The Shifting Bottom Line Of The US – OpEd

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By Kung Chan

Trump’s recent remarks on territorial expansion, including topics like Greenland, the Gulf of Mexico, and Canada, have shocked the world. Many people have once again associated this with the concept of “great power”, and feel panic and confusion. After all, Trump is thought to dislike interfering in global affairs?

In reality, Trump’s current actions are more about ensuring the continuation of Trumpism as a worldview, rather than just focusing on his presidential tenure. His time as President will only last for four years, and within the framework of the U.S. system of checks and balances, his ability to enact lasting change was limited. Therefore, he must consider what happens after his term. Hence, he will continue to exert influence through a certain ideology and worldview, which is what we refer to as Trumpism. I believe his recent statements are closely related to this.

Interestingly, there is a political cycle in the United States, though many deny it. I firmly believe that politics does follow a cyclical pattern. Trump’s “America First” rhetoric led many to believe that the U.S. was retreating or even in decline, but this is a mistaken view. In fact, it represents a “shifting of the bottom line” in American politics. At the outset of World War I, the U.S. was at its most conservative, showing no interest in the fierce fighting in Europe. But once the brutality of the war began to impact values such as human rights, democracy, and freedom, which Americans cherish, a tolerance issue arose. The conservative sentiment in American society actually meant that this tolerance had shifted, allowing for more significant impacts than before. Yet, this does not mean that the tolerance is infinite. After World War I had progressed to a certain point, U.S. President Woodrow Wilson declared war against Germany despite having promised conservative voters throughout his campaign that he would keep the U.S. out of it.

Therefore, the changes in America and Trumpism represent a shift in the country’s bottom line. Today and in the future, the U.S. will be more tolerant of certain global issues than in the past. This means that the U.S. will not actively engage in global affairs or maintain an interventionist stance. On the surface, it may appear that the U.S. is retreating or adopting a non-interventionist model, but if things escalate beyond a certain threshold, it will still respond with force and surprise. This is Trumpism, the true America.

Anbound

Anbound Consulting (Anbound) is an independent Think Tank with the headquarter based in Beijing. Established in 1993, Anbound specializes in public policy research, and enjoys a professional reputation in the areas of strategic forecasting, policy solutions and risk analysis. Anbound's research findings are widely recognized and create a deep interest within public media, academics and experts who are also providing consulting service to the State Council of China.

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