Houthis Emerge From Red Sea Shipping Crisis Unscathed – Analysis

By Paulo Aguiar

Since stepping into the Israel-Hamas conflict in late 2023, the Houthis have steadily gained military strength and political leverage. The war has fueled their recruitment, increasing their forces from an estimated 220,000 in 2022 to around 350,000 by late 2024. Their foothold in northern Yemen has only grown stronger, drawing in local tribes and political groups that align with their anti-Israel stance. The group’s ability to leverage regional conflicts for political and military gain has raised concerns over Yemen’s internal stability and broader regional security.

An increasingly sophisticated military player in the Red Sea region

The Houthis’ military power has expanded with significant support from Iran, which has provided them with advanced missile and drone technology. Their arsenal now includes the Hatem-2 missile, the Asif anti-ship missile, and Iranian-made drones, enabling them to strike targets at long distances, including Israel, US and UK warships, and critical maritime trade routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The group’s military doctrine has evolvedbeyond traditional guerrilla tactics, adopting strategies similar to Iran’s other regional proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas. This evolution includes the use of swarm drone warfare, precision-guided missile strikes, and a growing reliance on electronic warfare tactics to counter air and missile defense systems. The Houthis have also developed sophisticated deployment strategies, utilizing mobile launch platforms, coastal areas, and deeply buried underground storage facilities.

Since November 2023, the group has launched more than 100 attacks in the Red Sea, significantly disrupting commercial shipping, delaying global supply chains, and prompting an international response. This campaign has served dual purposes: projecting strength on the international stage while reinforcing internal legitimacy by portraying themselves as defenders of Palestine and Yemen’s sovereignty.

Despite consistent US and UK airstrikes targeting their weapons stockpiles, the Houthis have proven resilient. Their ability to disperse military assets across civilian infrastructure, remote locations, and hard-to-detect subterranean facilities has made it challenging for Western military interventions to deliver decisive blows. Their reliance on asymmetric warfare, coupled with Iran’s continued military and logistical support, has ensured their continued capacity to launch attacks despite external pressure. Additionally, the group has improved its naval warfare capabilities, deploying unmanned explosive-laden boats and sea mines to threaten shipping lanes and naval forces operating in the region.

A central part of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’

The Houthis’ ideological alignment with Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas—often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance“—has strengthened their position both regionally and domestically. Their anti-Israel and anti-American rhetoric resonates deeply in Yemen, where resentment toward Western involvement in the region is widespread. They have capitalized on this sentiment to frame themselves as defenders of Yemen’s sovereignty and the broader Arab cause, further solidifying their domestic legitimacy.

Their intervention in the Israel-Hamas conflict, in particular, has allowed them to garner increased public support, as they are seen as actively engaging in the struggle against perceived Western and Israeli aggression. This narrative has enabled the Houthis to consolidate their grip on northern Yemen, further marginalizing political rivals and dissenting factions.

Israeli airstrikes against Houthi positions have further amplified their nationalist appeal, allowing them to frame themselves as a direct opponent of Israel and a key player in the broader Middle East conflict. These strikes, rather than weakening them, have provided the Houthis with more justification to rally support and recruit additional fighters. Meanwhile, the Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) remains weak and fragmented, struggling with internal power struggles and a lack of coordinated military resistance.

The Southern Transitional Council (STC), which controls parts of southern Yemen, has been unable to coordinate effectively with other anti-Houthi factions, making the government susceptible to collapse. This ongoing political disunity provides the Houthis with opportunities to expand their influence further south, targeting strategically and economically significant cities like Marib and Taiz. If they continue their territorial expansion, they could exert even more control over Yemen’s critical energy resources, which would further cement their position as the dominant force in the country and increase their bargaining power in any future peace negotiations.

Houthis have weathered Western reprisals following Red Sea shipping crisis

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes have significantly escalated geopolitical tensions, prompting a military and economic response from the United States and its allies. Initially, the Houthis claimed their attacks were directed at Israeli-linked vessels, but their increasingly indiscriminate targeting of commercial ships has led to widespread regional volatility. Their ability to threaten crucial maritime trade routes, including those used for oil and goods transportation, has forced Western powers to react. The establishment of multinational naval patrols aims to deter further attacks and protect vital shipping lanes, but challenges remain in fully neutralizing the Houthi threat.

Western responses have thus far been primarily defensive, with limited offensive operations against Houthi-controlled areas. While airstrikes have targeted missile launch sites, radar systems, and storage facilities, they have not significantly degraded the Houthis’ fundamental  military capabilities. Quite the contrary, the group has demonstrated adaptability by frequently relocating assets, employing hit-and-run tactics, and utilizing decentralized command structures to sustain operations despite external pressure. Additionally, Iran’s continued logistical and technical support has enabled the Houthis to refine their attack strategies.

Looking ahead

The Houthis appear poised to continue their Red Sea campaign and intermittent strikes on Israel, particularly as long as the situation in Gaza remains unresolved. Their ability to maintain internal unity despite historical tribal and political divisions suggests that they will remain a dominant force in Yemen. Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to engage in renewed large-scale military intervention further strengthens their hand, making an expansion into southern Yemen increasingly possible.

However, these ambitions carry potential risks. A push too far into the south could provoke renewed intervention from regional players like the UAE, whose interests lie in securing maritime trade routes along the Arabian Sea and controlling Yemen’s ports. Additionally, a successful Houthi expansion could create security vacuums that groups like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS could exploit, further complicating Yemen’s already fragile security environment. The presence of multiple factions, including southern separatists and tribal militias, adds another layer of complexity, potentially leading to prolonged territorial conflicts and instability.

Another key concern is the possibility of increased international intervention should Houthi actions begin to significantly impact Western economic and security interests. The Red Sea remains a critical global trade artery, and continued Houthi disruptions could trigger an escalated response from the United States, the UK, and other international players. While these nations have primarily taken a reactive stance, an extended campaign against commercial and military assets could push them toward stronger military engagements, shifting the conflict dynamics in unforeseen ways. Additionally, any further escalation could strain diplomatic efforts to stabilize Yemen, leaving the country even more vulnerable to prolonged warfare and economic collapse.

On the other hand, a significant international intervention won’t necessarily happen. Even though the Houthis are causing problems in the Red Sea, the U.S. and its allies might not want to get too deeply involved in another drawn-out conflict. Instead of ramping up direct military action, they could lean on diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, or naval escorts to stabilize trade flows without escalating the situation. There’s also the risk that a stronger military response could provoke Iran or destabilize the region even more, making Western countries think twice before diving in. Finally, there will be a temptation to defer to Saudi Arabia and the UAE and let them take the lead so as to avoid direct involvement.

• This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com