Israel’s Choices In Gaza – OpEd
It boils down to two stark alternatives. Negotiate a full hostage release, end the war and leave Hamas still functioning; or defeat Hamas, ensure the return of all the hostages, and help build a Hamas-free future for Gaza.
The former course is currently being offered by Hamas at the negotiations in Doha; it means the terror organization would remain in being, free to continue its existential vendetta against Israel.
The latter course is being pursued now by the Israeli government and, if successful, removes the constant threat by rocket and missile attack that has endangered Israeli lives and property for nearly twenty years. It removes a neighboring entity dedicated to Israel’s destruction and the slaughter of its people.
If it does succeed, it will not be without cost. There will inevitably be much collateral death and injury, and Israel’s international reputation will be further damaged. In pursuing this strategy Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is clearly modelling himself on Winston Churchill in the Second World War when he declared: “Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory, however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival.”
The release by Hamas on May 12 of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander after 584 days in captivity significantly energized and advanced ceasefire-hostage release negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Brokered by the US, Egypt and Qatar, they had just resumed in Doha on May 7 after a period of deadlock, but Alexander’s release acted as a catalyst in re-energizing the discussions. Qatari spokesperson, Majed Al-Ansari, said Alexander’s release “gave a push to Gaza ceasefire negotiations,” adding that Qatar was working with mediators Egypt and the US to bridge the gap between the two sides.
That gap, however, remains dangerously wide.
The latest US-backed proposal under discussion is the so-called Witkoff framework, named for Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East. It would see the release of as many as half of the remaining living hostages in exchange for a ceasefire lasting several weeks. During this period, Israel would engage in talks about ending the war, but without agreeing in advance to a permanent cessation of hostilities.
In fact Netanyahu refuses to commit to ending the war or withdrawing from Gaza as a precondition for further hostage releases. In the days leading up to Trump’s tour of the Middle East, he delivered a clear ultimatum to Hamas. They had until the end of Trump’s four-day visit to the region to accept the terms of the Witkoff plan, or Israel would unleash the full force of its Operation Gideon’s Chariots into Gaza. This military operation has as its objective to crush Hamas militarily and politically, secure the release of all hostages, and establish permanent Israeli control over recaptured areas in Gaza.
Netanyahu emphasized that if Hamas did not comply Israel would launch its major ground operation; in the meanwhile any ceasefire-hostage release negotiations would be conducted “under fire,” meaning that there would be no pause in military activities except for brief periods to facilitate hostage releases. That is what is now taking place.
It was on May 15, perhaps to mark what Palestinians term “Nakba Day” – their commemoration of the mass displacement that accompanied the birth of the State of Israel – that Israeli military operations in Gaza intensified. Widespread airstrikes targeted more than 130 militant sites, including rocket launchers and command centers. Ground operations were also conducted in areas like Rafah and Gaza City.
As for Netanyahu’s ultimatum to Hamas, President Trump’s visit to the region has ended and, despite ongoing negotiations and US pressure, Hamas has still not agreed to implement the Witkoff framework.
Hamas’s terms for releasing the remaining hostages are a guaranteed permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. So far, this has been its red line. While the group has indicated that it is willing to discuss disarmament and the transfer of governing power to an independent Palestinian technocratic committee, it has consistently maintained that, for a comprehensive deal, ending the war and an Israeli withdrawal is non-negotiable. Its reasons are not hard to discern. Even though it has gone along with the demands, including from the Arab world, that it disarms, it cherishes the hope that it might somehow retain influence and a presence in a postwar Gaza. This would only be possible if Israel had no presence there.
Egyptian and Qatari mediators, with US support, are attempting to bridge the divide by proposing an initial ceasefire longer than previous ones (potentially several months), during which substantive negotiations on a permanent end to the conflict would occur. Mediators hope the extended truce will create space for further agreements.
On May 13, as part of Israel’s broader strategy to degrade Hamas’s command-and-control infrastructure and prepare for intensified military operations if peace talks fail, the IDF targeted Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar. The airstrike hit the Gaza European Hospital in Khan Yunis, where Sinwar was reportedly present in an underground command-and-control center located beneath the hospital. His death awaits official Israeli confirmation, although Arab media have been reporting that he died in the air strike.
Israeli defense sources believe that two other leading Hamas figures were with Sinwar in the tunnels beneath the hospital during the strike, namely Muhammad Shabana, head of Hamas’s Rafah Brigade; and Abu Obaida, Hamas’s military spokesman. Both may have been killed with him.
Mohammed Sinwar’s elimination could possibly lead to greater negotiating flexibility from Hamas. Media reports suggest that Sinwar has been one of the hardest-line figures in the Hamas leadership – arguably even more extreme than his brother Yahya, killed in October 2024. He was among the top operatives behind the onslaught on Israel on October 7, 2023, and has since shown no signs of moderation or willingness to compromise. On the contrary, he has demonstrated that to maintain Hamas’s grip on Gaza he is ready, indeed willing, to sacrifice tens of thousands of lives. He has repeatedly blocked a ceasefire, or any deal with Israel.
If he is indeed out of the picture, more pragmatic voices within the leadership might be heard. Muhammad Ismail Darwish, Khalil al-Hayya and Nizar Awadallah – all of whom are in the Hamas talks team – have recently demonstrated some inclination to compromise and focus on negotiation over continued conflict.
In short the Israel-Gaza ceasefire and hostage release talks are active but stalled, with both sides holding firm on core demands. For the moment Israel seeks a temporary truce tied to limited hostage releases; Hamas insists on a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal as conditions for release of all hostages. Meanwhile international mediators continue efforts to find common ground, and Israel seeks final victory over Hamas.
