Swing States: ‘Battlefields’ That Will Decide The US Presidential Election – Analysis

The electoral system of the United States is one of the most unique in the world, resulting from historical processes (British colonialism, the American Civil War) that have produced a very complex political structure based on strong federalism and significant rights for individual states.

Among other peculiarities, the most visible specificity of the US political system is the presidential election. Unlike most countries where the president is the candidate with the highest number of votes in general elections or is elected in parliament, the US has a combination of both models. The president becomes the candidate with the highest number of electoral votes, which are collected in the states.

The Importance of the Electoral College

Electors form the Electoral College, which elects the president and vice president of the US. The total number of electoral votes is 538. Each US state has a certain number of electoral votes based on the number of its representatives in the bicameral US Congress. Each state has 2 senators regardless of its size or population. Fifty states provide 100 senators and 100 electoral votes.

The number of representatives a state has in the House of Representatives is based on its population, which is determined every 10 years by a census. The more populous the state, the more representatives it has in the House of Representatives and the more electoral votes it has. There are a total of 435 representatives and 435 electoral votes. The remaining 3 electoral votes are held by Washington, D.C., which is not a state but has the right to participate in presidential elections under the 23rd Amendment to the US Constitution.

After the general presidential elections, usually held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November (November 5 this year), electors meet in their states in mid-December to formally vote for the president and vice president. The vast majority of states have adopted a “winner-takes-all” system, where the candidate who wins the majority of votes in the state gets all the state’s electoral votes.

The only exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, which use a proportional system of allocating electoral votes. Nebraska has a total of 5 electoral votes. The winner of each congressional district receives one electoral vote – 3 votes in total. The remaining two electoral votes go to the candidate who wins the most votes in Nebraska. It is similar in Maine, which has a total of 4 electoral votes. There are 2 congressional districts that carry two electoral votes. The remaining two electoral votes go to the candidate with the most votes in Maine.

Red, Blue, and Purple States

The existence of the Electoral College in presidential elections puts states at the center, specifically those states where both Democratic and Republican candidates can realistically win. Such states that can become “blue” and “red” are popularly called “swing” states, “battleground” states, and “purple” states. There are different classifications of swing states, and they change over time depending on the population structure and the policies of the presidential candidates. The most important purple states from 2000 to the present are: New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. In addition to these, there are classic red and blue states that regularly lean towards Republicans or Democrats.

Democratic presidential candidates usually can count on victories in the East (New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Illinois), on the West Coast (California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii), and in the Southwest (Colorado and New Mexico). Republican candidates win rural states and states of the Great Plains, such as Idaho, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Montana, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, states of the Bible Belt (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and South Carolina), and Alaska. Interestingly, in presidential elections, red and blue states vote for their red and blue candidates, but sometimes they do not do so in local gubernatorial elections. For example, blue strongholds like Virginia and Vermont have Republican governors Phil Scott and Glenn Youngkin. On the other hand, red states Kansas and Kentucky have Democratic governors Laura Kelly and Andy Beshear.

The Invaluable Importance of Swing States

It is important to emphasize that swing states do not have such great importance when a presidential candidate achieves a landslide victory in the entire US. Good examples are the 1972 election when Republican Richard Nixon defeated Democrat George McGovern by a margin of 520 – 17 electoral votes, and the 1984 election when Republican Ronald Reagan overwhelmingly defeated Democrat Walter Mondale by a result of 525 – 13.

However, convincing victories have not occurred in the last thirty years, and swing states are of invaluable importance. Election results show that a candidate can win the overall majority of American votes but still lose the election because they lost the battles in decisive swing states. This first happened in the 2000 election when Democratic candidate Al Gore won the most votes (a difference of about 500,000 votes), but Republican George W. Bush won with 271 electoral votes to Gore’s 266. The deciding state was Florida, where Bush received just 537 more votes than Gore. Bush won Florida by mobilizing conservative voters in rural areas and smaller towns. Tax cuts, gun rights, and highlighting moral values were policies that secured Bush’s triumph. In the 2016 election, it happened again that the candidate with the most votes suffered an electoral defeat. Hillary Clinton received almost 3 million more votes than Donald Trump, but she lost key states Florida, Rust Belt states – Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, as well as the 2nd congressional district of Maine. Trump won because he criticized deindustrialization policies in the US and advocated for the return of traditional heavy industry to devastated cities. The outcome of the electoral votes was 304 – 227 for Trump.

Controversial 2020 Election

The importance of swing states can be best seen in the 2020 election in Joe Biden’s very narrow victory over Trump. Although Biden received about 7 million more votes than Trump, he barely secured the victory. The final outcome of the election was not clear for days.

In the election, Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,555 votes (a difference of 1.16%), Wisconsin by 20,682 votes (a difference of 0.63%), Arizona by 10,457 votes (a difference of 0.31%), Georgia by 11,779 votes (a difference of 0.24%). If Trump had managed to win in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, the result of the electoral votes would have been 269-269, and the president would have been decided by the House of Representatives. Trump would have been favored to win in the House of Representatives due to the rules of the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution. Therefore, Trump lost the election by only 43,000 votes! This is a fascinating fact given the numerous population of the US – more than 155 million voters voted in the election.

However, if Trump had won Pennsylvania, the matter would have been immediately resolved without additional voting in Congress. Trump missed out on a secure triumph by only 123,000 votes. Given such a narrow outcome, there will always be questions of possible rigging of election results, especially when considering the widespread mail-in voting due to the pandemic and the subsequent process of collecting mail-in votes.

Biden secured the victory with 306 electoral votes to 232. The key was that Biden’s campaign capitalized on the shortcomings of the Trump administration during the COVID-19 crisis, advocating for workers’ rights, and mobilizing the Black and Latino communities.

Negatives of Focusing on Swing States

The crucial importance of swing states has directed the election headquarters of both parties to focus on these states with money, time, political programs, while neglecting others considered safe zones. Far more campaign rallies are held in purple states, and more political ads are aired. In red and blue states, the campaign will be carried out pro forma because victory or defeat is already assured. Battleground states are given precedence over safe states like California or Alaska, which is not good for their residents. The problems of the residents of those states are largely ignored, and candidates do not give the necessary attention to development projects in those states.

According to some estimates, about 80% of voters are neglected because they will vote for their party’s candidates anyway. Of course, even within swing states, it is known which areas are battle zones and which are safe zones, further segmenting the interest of election headquarters. For example, Democrats will aim to win minority voters, while Republicans will target wealthy white residents of developed suburbs.

Swing States in 2024

Although a total of 240 million American voters have the right to vote, swing states are at the center of the election campaign of the both parties in 2024. As for their structure, no significant change is expected compared to the 2020 election. The same states could be decisive.

According to David Schultz, professor of political science at Hamline University and professor of law at the University of Minnesota, the most important swing states this year will be Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes), and Wisconsin (10 votes). The last three states form an important part of the so-called Blue Wall, which is crucial for Democrats’ victory. Schultz argues that neither the polls nor the overall swing states are important but rather certain districts within those states according to the 5-5-5-270 theory. The election is decided by five percent of voters in five leading districts in five purple states, and based on that outcome, the winner gets the required 270 votes. Political scientists point out that Nevada (6 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), and Minnesota (10 votes) could also be decisive swing states this year.

Key Issues for the 2024 Election: Economy, Abortion, and Immigration

In Arizona, key issues are illegal immigration and abortion. As a border state with Mexico, Arizona has been significantly impacted by record waves of illegal migration since the Biden administration took office in 2021. This has forced Biden to take a tougher stance on illegal immigrants. Recently, Republicans tried to introduce an almost total abortion ban with an 1864 law, leading to political struggles, and Trump distanced himself from this move. Illegal immigration could work in Trump’s favor, while abortion issues might benefit Democratic candidate.

In Georgia, about one-third of the Black population delivered the victory for Biden in 2020 but has been disappointed with his policies and unresolved racial issues, which could be good for Trump. Michigan was a pivotal state in 2016 and 2020, and it could be the same in 2024. Trends favor Trump due to the disappointment of Arab Americans with Biden’s support for Israel. Arab Americans are most numerous in the US in Michigan – 2.1 million. During the Democratic primaries in February, more than 100,000 voters chose the “undecided” option to show their dissatisfaction. In Pennsylvania, the key issue is inflation and controlling consumer goods prices. In this state, food prices have risen the most, and one in eight residents of the purple Erie County feels “food insecure.” Pennsylvania is state where Democrats are strong, but the decline in living standards will be a significant challenge that Trump will try to exploit.

In Wisconsin, the Republican National Convention (RNC) was held in Milwaukee in mid-July, indicating the Republicans’ attempt to capture that state. The main issues are jobs. Democrats can boast about Microsoft’s decision to invest $3.3 billion in an artificial intelligence research center, which is expected to bring 2,000 jobs. In Nevada, the large Latino population of 28% plays a significant role. Both Democrats and Trump are trying to win them over. The main issues are economic. Nevada has the third-highest unemployment rate in the US at 5.1%. Trump promotes lower taxes and fewer regulations to facilitate business and is currently in a good position. North Carolina is a state which Democrats want to win to compensate for potential losses in some Rust Belt states. Trump narrowly won there four years ago. The main issues are the economy (inflation), immigration, and abortion. Similarly, in Minnesota, liberal voters care about protecting democracy, while Trump supporters focus on controlling crime.

The Obama Lesson

Although Barack Obama is not among the (most) successful American presidents, he undoubtedly owes his meteoric political rise to his commitment to the American motto “E pluribus unum” (“Out of many, one”). At the 2004 Democratic National Convention (DNC), he gave an impressive speech that opened the door to the White House: “The pundits like to slice and dice our country into red states and blue states; red states for Republicans, blue states for Democrats. But I’ve got news for them too: We worship an awesome God in the blue states, and we don’t like federal agents poking around in our libraries in the red states. We coach Little League in the blue states, and, yes, we’ve got some gay friends in the red states.”

Skillful rhetorical appeals to national unity, along with his background and charisma, are the main reasons for Obama’s political success. In reality, Obama did not lead neutral policies aimed at reconciling conservatives and liberals but rather policies that fueled fierce American divisions. Thus, at the end of Obama’s 8-year term in the 2016 elections, America was more divided into red and blue states than ever, launching Trump into the White House. However, Obama’s rhetoric shows how a politician who promotes and implements generally beneficial ideologically neutral policies with the aim of national reconciliation can easily win key swing states.

Admittedly, neither Trump nor the majority of top-tier Democrats and Republicans show such ability. They all have a party base that adores them while their rival voters despise them. In the future, embracing moderate rhetoric will be a good option for national prosperity.