Fresh Rohingya Influx Puts Bangladesh Under Pressure Amid Myanmar’s Escalating Conflict – Analysis

In the midst of intensifying clashes between Myanmar’s junta government and Arakan Army rebels, Bangladesh has faced a new wave of Rohingya refugees, with around 60,000 crossing its borders over the past two months, according to a Bangladeshi official’s statement on December 23, 2024. This influx has added further strain to the southeastern Cox’s Bazar district, already sheltering over 1.2 million Rohingya who fled Myanmar, primarily during the military’s brutal crackdown in August 2017.

Growing Crisis at the Border

The latest surge in Rohingya arrivals has brought to light the vulnerabilities and complexities of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. Corruption has played a significant role, with reports indicating that individuals on both sides of the border facilitate illegal crossings in exchange for money. The porous nature of the border and the escalating violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine state have created a humanitarian and political dilemma for Bangladesh.

A Delicate Balancing Act

Md. Touhid Hossain, the foreign affairs adviser for Bangladesh, shed light on the situation during a press briefing in Dhaka. Speaking after attending an informal consultation meeting in Bangkok on December 19, 2024, involving six countries—Laos, Thailand, India, China, Myanmar, and Bangladesh—Hossain described the country’s stance on the ongoing influx.

“Our position in principle is not to allow any more Rohingya to enter. However, sometimes the situation becomes such that we have nothing more to do. In such a situation, we allowed 60,000 Rohingya to enter. It’s not that we officially let them in; they entered through different routes,” he clarified.

Regional Dynamics and Challenges

The Bangkok meeting, chaired by Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa and attended by Myanmar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe, emphasized the necessity for Myanmar to address its internal conflicts. Hossain highlighted the collective appeal made by neighboring countries, urging Myanmar to resolve its issues through dialogue with all parties involved.

Despite these calls, the reality on the ground presents significant hurdles. The Arakan Army has expanded its control over several regions in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, including areas near the Bangladesh border. This development complicates the situation further, as formal negotiations with these non-state actors remain unlikely.

A Border Beyond Control

Hossain expressed concern over the deteriorating security conditions along the border. “I told him (Than Swe) that the Myanmar border is not under your control. The border has come under the control of non-state actors. As a state, we cannot get involved with non-state actors. So, they (Myanmar government) have to see in what way to solve the border and Rohingya problems,” he recounted.

The instability has left Bangladesh in a precarious position. While its official policy is to prevent further refugee influxes, the practicalities of managing an uncontrolled border amid ongoing violence make enforcement challenging.

International Cooperation Needed

Hossain underscored the importance of collaboration with the international community to prevent future waves of refugees. While he expressed hope that no further influxes would occur, he acknowledged the necessity of proactive measures. “But we have to make arrangements to stop that wave, along with the international community,” he stated.

The Bangkok meeting also revealed a grim consensus among regional stakeholders: Myanmar shows little sign of returning to stability under its current regime. Neighboring countries, including Bangladesh, are grappling with the ripple effects of Myanmar’s internal conflicts, which extend beyond refugee crises to broader regional instability.

A Prolonged Crisis with No Easy Solutions

For Bangladesh, the ongoing Rohingya crisis represents not only a humanitarian challenge but also a significant strain on resources and diplomatic relations. The 2017 influx saw the arrival of nearly a million refugees, overwhelming local infrastructure and sparking international outcry. Efforts to repatriate the Rohingya to Myanmar have repeatedly stalled, with refugees expressing fears for their safety and a lack of guarantees for basic rights.

The recent wave of arrivals, driven by escalating violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, adds a new layer of urgency to the crisis. As the Arakan Army consolidates power in the region, the prospects for a peaceful resolution appear increasingly remote.

Moving Forward

Bangladesh finds itself at a crossroads, caught between its humanitarian obligations and the practicalities of managing a protracted refugee crisis. The government’s stance, as articulated by Hossain, reflects this delicate balancing act. While the country cannot formally open its borders, it also cannot ignore the realities of those fleeing violence.

The international community’s role will be pivotal in addressing the root causes of the crisis. Pressure on Myanmar to engage in meaningful dialogue and resolve its internal conflicts is essential. Equally, support for Bangladesh in managing the immediate and long-term challenges posed by the Rohingya influx will be critical.

As the situation unfolds, the resilience of both the Rohingya community and the host nation will be tested. With no clear resolution in sight, the need for a concerted, multi-faceted approach to the crisis has never been more apparent.