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Iran: Talk Of War Sounds Louder – OpEd

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By Boris Pavlishchev

The situation around Iran is getting tenser every day. The preparations for military operations are obvious. The US and its allies are building up forces in the area of the Persian Gulf. According to the Israeli media, by March up to 100,000 troops will be concentrated there. In response Iran is conducting large scale military maneuvers developing protection of its nuclear objects and sea borders. Teheran has even warned its enemies of a possible preventive strike if they pose a threat to its national interests.

The complex situation with Iran’s nuclear program is one of the main causes of tense relations between the Islamic Republic and Western countries. Teheran is reporting about its new nuclear achievements, in particular on launching a new line of uranium enrichment centrifuges which make it possible to increase uranium enrichment to the 20% level three times quicker. Out of this uranium a 90% weapon grade uranium can be produced in only six weeks. Iran has also speeded up work on the relocation of its enrichment centrifuges to the Fordo underground facility, where 80 m underground they will be invulnerable for air strikes.

On February 20-21, breaching earlier commitments Teheran did not let the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) visit its nuclear facilities. The inspectors were especially interested in visiting the Parchin facility which was earlier mentioned in the report of IAEA as a potential site for testing components of nuclear weapons.

Considering this, Teheran’s recent statement on its readiness to resume talks with the sixth of the mediators looks like a deceptive maneuver and an attempt to gain time. Nevertheless, currently there are no serious grounds to using force against the Islamic Republic, the head of the Center of Social and Political Research Vladimir Yevseyev says.

“Teheran’s decision to conduct nuclear tests could become an excuse for the use of force. The volume of the fissile material Iran has will enable it to produce not more than two nuclear warheads. With such a small amount no country will dare to start nuclear tests. The second reason is that Iran has no missiles which pose threat to Israel.”

Iran has the army and fleet which are capable of carrying out powerful strikes on any enemy. The Western media even use such a term as “potential for an asymmetric response”. But all these advantages will be reduced to zero in case of a large scale land operation against Iran. However, for the moment such an operation is not even being discussed, Pyotr Topychkanov, an expert of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, says.

“Israel won’t be able to conduct such an operation alone and the global society is not ready to support it because the issues caused by the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have not been resolved yet. But Israel may conduct an operation similar to the one it conducted in 2007 against Syria. It may carry out air and missile strikes on Iran’s nuclear objects, which would allow to hold back Teheran’s progress in the nuclear developments. But it is necessary to understand that such an act of preventive aggression will lead to a new crisis in the international diplomacy and in the UN.”

Earlier this week Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barack said that Teheran has not passed the point of no return with its nuclear program yet that means that it has not made a political decision on creating nuclear weapons. That is why there is no need for surgical attacks. But the risk of such attacks remains, Israeli political analyst Alex Kogan says.

“Israel may dare to carry out such an operation. The experience of recent years shows that while you are gathering a big coalition, discussing different issues time goes by. There is an old English saying – if you want something to be done do it yourself. This saying has become a motto which defines the policy of Israel.”

Such a scenario is fully inadmissible for US President Barack Obama in the year of the election campaign. Although the US continues to build up its forces in the region its goal is making psychological pressure on Teheran. In reality the US is trying to hold back Israel’s military impulse. The US envoys who are trying to prevent the war have become frequent guests in Jerusalem. By now their visits have brought no results. Perhaps the situation will change after Barack Obama meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington on March 5.

VOR

VOR

VOR, or the Voice of Russia, was the Russian government's international radio broadcasting service from 1993 until 2014, when it was reorganised as Radio Sputnik.

One thought on “Iran: Talk Of War Sounds Louder – OpEd

  • Avatar
    February 24, 2012 at 6:26 pm
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    Iran faces a delicate issue. On the one hand it wants to show the world all it’s got and put it at ease, while on the other hand it fears that such show ‘n tell will give its enemies a roadmap to bomb it.
    Saddam Hussein faced a similar dilemma ten years ago. Though he wanted the world to know he had nothing to hide, he also wanted to bluff his archenemy Iran into believing Iraq still had WMD.
    Bluffing did not go well for Saddam, and it might not go well for Ahmadinejad.
    But since the price tag for ridding Saddam proved high, maybe we ought to reflect what we are asking of Iran now. On the eve of a threatened attack, we are asking it to take us to the depths of its arsenal and show us all it’s got.
    Such great expectations are a sign we have been talking to our friends too long and are in need of a broader perspective. Exactly when was the last time we asked Pakistan, India, China or Russia to show us their arsenal?
    “But those countries are not advocating the destruction of Israel.”
    True, but Israel is not a thorn on their side either.
    Surely, however, we can see beyond the hyperboles and figure out their underlying purpose. Or have we forgotten that not all Iranians are thrilled with Ahmadinejad?
    He sure hasn’t forgotten.
    Nor has he forgotten that that his countrymen hate Israel even more. So he tells them that Israel will be wiped from the face of the earth. Expectantly, this nonsense unites them against a common enemy. It is even a diversion from the misery and isolation brought on by his theocratic regime.
    Quite clever work by Ahmadinejad — and not a rial spent or a bullet fired.
    So why are we letting the crazy talk about destroying Israel get us all worked-up — to the point of turning the world topsy-turvy again.
    Can we not see the desperate attempts of an unpopular regime simply trying to hold on?

    Reply

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