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White House’s Iran War Party – OpEd

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The White House’s Iran war party is now complete. With the installation of Iranophobic extremist John Bolton as the new national security adviser, Trump’s slow march toward war with Iran has now gained momentum, in light of the similar turnovers in the US Department of State and Central Intelligence Agency, now headed by fierce opponents of Iran thirsting for blood of Iranians.

Henceforth, Iran’s national security has been seriously threatened and Iran must do whatever necessary to neutralize the American threat, including by seeking closer strategic alliance with Russia and thereby gaining Russia’s nuclear protection.  Without such initiatives, Iran would be at the mercy of ‘nuke Iran’ hawks in Washington reigning supreme, who may shed crocodile tears for the Iranian people yet have no qualm about instigating an Iraq-type conflict exacting a heavy toll on Iranian population.

In fact, what Bolton’s appointment signifies is that any attempt by Iran to make concessions and compromise is doomed to fail and will only embolden the Washington warmongers, some of whom like Bolton were instrumental in igniting the Iraq war of choice that has wreaked havoc on the Middle East.  The Bolton-Pompeo duet will almost definitely mean a new and highly menacing level of hostility toward Iran that may result in the exploitation of any available pretext to trigger open warfare between US and Iran, thus fulfilling the long-sought dream of ardent Zionist behind Bolton and Pompeo, namely, Sheldon Adelson, who is notorious for his advocacy of nuclear attack on Iran.

Clearly, the non-nuclear Iran is no match for the nuclear western superpower that nowadays relies on an aggressive nuclear doctrine that rationalizes the use of “smart nukes’ in conventional theater.  Iran’s conventional prowess will mean that Iran through the strategy of extended deterrence will be able to inflict some damage on the attacking enemy, yet unable to prevent the latter from using its tactical nuclear weapons in order to bring Iran to its knees.  With the Iran nuclear accord resulting in the foreign dispatch of the bulk of Iran’s enriched uranium, Iran is now deprived of the ability to engage in a race for the bombs in order to protect itself.

At the same time, the Trump war strategy toward Iran dictates a great deal of tactical maneuver with respect to both Russia (and to a lesser extent) China, in order to neutralize and sideline those powers in the event of a showdown with Iran.  Using a mix of carrots and sticks with Russia in particular, the Trump administration would likely seek a temporary appeasement of Moscow while it pursues a war strategy with Iran, hoping that much like the Iraq war, Russia will make some noise but in the end remain a passive observer of the war scenario.  But, should Iran’s quest to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization be allowed and Iran achieves a greater strategic partnership with the countries of the east, then it may succeed in neutralizing the clear and present danger posed by Trump White House’s war party.  It would be rather naïve on Iran’s part to think that it can rely on the international organizations and the like to stop the Trump war machine.

Lest we forget, in the case of Iraq war, Saddam Hussain offered several important concessions, including inviting the US forces on the ground in Iraq to ascertain the absence of an Iraqi WMD program, yet none of that worked and all fell on deaf ears in Bush’s White House, already committed to attacking Iraq no matter what.  Perhaps a similar scenario is brewing right now with respect to Iran, all the more reason for Iran to think the unthinkable, an asymmetrical warfare with a western superpower unchained.

This article was published at Iranian Diplomacy.


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Kaveh L. Afrasiabi

Kaveh L. Afrasiabi

Kaveh L. Afrasiabi, Ph.D. is an Iranian-American political scientist and author specializing in Iran’s foreign and nuclear affairs, and author of several books.

4 thoughts on “White House’s Iran War Party – OpEd

  • March 24, 2018 at 5:13 am
    Permalink

    You are absolutely correct, Iran must prepare for an asymmetrical war right now. This administration does not respect international agreements or norms, only force, so Iran must prepare for all-out conflict.

    Reply
    • March 24, 2018 at 11:20 pm
      Permalink

      Well of course Iran can do whatever it can to defend itself militarily?
      But that’s not the issue.
      The bigger challenge (timebomb?) facing Iran is how to grow the economy, how to lift living standards, how to put enough bread on the tables, to prevent another revolution?

      Reply
  • March 24, 2018 at 11:13 pm
    Permalink

    It’s the economy, stupid, that will facilitate regime change from within.
    Trump strategy is not to bomb Iran, as that would not achieve anything, other than heavy costs.
    The Master Strategy is to deprive Iran from foreign Investment, to chalk off any economic growth.
    Tel Aviv believes this strategy to be most effective as it’d result in one or both of these scenarios:
    1- Iran will pull out of JCPOA – leading to even more economic sanctions (brill)
    2 – Ordinary Iranians will be out on streets revolting against the clergy (bingo)

    Reply
    • March 24, 2018 at 11:17 pm
      Permalink

      The only reason John Bolton and Mike Pompeo were brought in (as arranged in Tel Aviv) was because they are most qualified to scare off Investors from going anywhere near Iran.

      Reply

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