Bangladesh On The Brink: Army Gearing Up For All Eventualities – Analysis

Chaos, power plays, and a nation’s fate hang in the balance as the region and the world watch with concern

Bangladesh is teetering on the edge of collapse. Lawlessness has unleashed a tidal wave of crime—robberies, extortion, rape, and strikes—while the Muhammad Yunus-led Interim Government, in power since August 2024, flounders helplessly.

Eight months after ousting Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League in a fiery student-led uprising, the nation is spiralling into chaos, and the army is stepping in with boots on the ground.

In Dhaka, troops from the 9th Infantry Division now patrol the streets, setting up checkpoints and raiding hotspots like the Baitul Mukarram mosque. It’s a bold move, triggered last week by a nationwide crackdown on crime ordered by a rattled Interim Government.

But the real showdown is brewing between the military and the very students who ignited the July 2024 “revolution.” The National Citizens’ Party (NCP), born from that uprising, is clashing head-on with Army Chief Gen. Waker-uz-Zaman, accusing him of plotting to resurrect a “refined Awami League” under India’s shadow.

Suspicion runs deep: Gen. Zaman, rumoured to be Hasina’s kin, whisked her to safety in New Delhi last August as furious mobs closed in. Now, the students smell betrayal.

On March 23, the army’s top brass huddled in a high-stakes meeting at headquarters, weighing drastic options—including a State of Emergency—to wrest control from the spiralling disorder. Sources whisper of a military poised to act, even as Gen. Zaman insists he wants troops back in barracks once order is restored.

“I’ve had enough,” he snapped to his ranks, vowing to pave the way for elections within 18 months. But can he deliver?

Islamic Fire and Student Fury

A darker force is rising: Islamic radicalism. The NCP’s uneasy pact with Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam has unleashed a wave of fundamentalism, rattling nerves at home and abroad. Last Friday, a fiery rally near Baitul Mukarram mosque roared against Israel, India, and any hint of an Awami League comeback. Army searches at the mosque gate barely kept the lid on.

Meanwhile, Yunus’s refusal to ban Hasina’s party—despite promising justice for its alleged crimes—sparked student protests at Dhaka University. The NCP demands a total purge of “fascist” forces, while the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) pushes for democracy, not bans.

Hasina, safe in India, isn’t staying quiet. From exile, she’s rallying her base, decrying “genocide” against Hindus and vowing a triumphant return. India and the US are fuming—New Delhi over minority attacks, Washington over Islamic radicalism’s resurgence.

President Trump and intel chief Tulsi Gabbard have slammed Dhaka, with Gabbard warning of an “Islamic Caliphate” threat. Bangladesh fired back, calling her claims reckless. Meanwhile, ties with China are heating up as relations with India and the US hit rock bottom.

General vs. Rebels: A Showdown Looms

Gen. Zaman isn’t backing down. Facing student barbs, he warned that infighting could doom Bangladesh’s freedom, positioning the army as the nation’s saviour.

On March 11, NCP leaders Hasnat Abdullah and Sarjis Islam confronted him at Sena Bhaban, demanding answers. Zaman played the wise elder, urging unity over division—but his offhand remark about a “refined Awami League” lit a fuse.

Hasnat took to social media, alleging Indian meddling, while Sarjis downplayed it as a misread opinion. The army dismissed the uproar as a “political stunt,” but the damage was done.

Saturday’s emergency meeting of the army brass—five Lieutenant Generals in person, others virtual—mapped out the crisis. Elections? Emergency rule? Countering NCP propaganda? All options were on the table.

The World Watches, Breath Held

Global powers are on edge. India and the US want stability restored for holding elections; Bangladesh’s dalliance with China and Pakistan only deepens the rift. Yunus and Modi won’t even meet at next month’s BIMSTEC summit.

Trump and Gabbard’s rhetoric has Dhaka bristling. The Interim Government’s grip over the country is slipping.

Can Yunus and Zaman weather the storm—or will Bangladesh fracture under the weight of its own revolution? Bangladeshis and all South Asians are waiting to see with bated breath.