By Sajad Abedi*
Syria’s field developments have practically changed regional equilibrium, as analysts today report the new regional order in Western Asia.
The fact is that the victory of the Syrian army in Aleppo and the positive outlook for the Mosul liberation operation in Iraq today have shaken the terrorists’ position so that even their supporters do not even have the power to use these terrorists to influence the talks in the region. Saudi Arabia, which has been plunged into the Yemeni war, has witnessed the weakening of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, and has lost its international reputation for the global hatred of terrorists. Qatar is no longer able to play with the Jabhat al-Nusra Front, because even the Western-backed terrorists in Syria are no longer willing to accept this terrorist group as their ally.
The result of such a situation is the holding of an Astana summit without the presence of supporters of terrorism and the Americans’ limited role. Although these talks continue in Geneva, and perhaps in the coming peace talks, Europeans have a greater role, but at present, the Syrian arena has caused transatlantic players to leave West Asia at least and leave their allies in Leave the Middle East alone.
The West Asia region has seen two different situations in the last half century. The first situation was based on the conflict between regional governments and the role of trans-national powers through the identification of gendarmes for the region. Following the gradual removal of the United Kingdom, the United States was well versed in this model, following the Pahlavi regime as its successor to the region, following this model. But in the second model, which occurred during the Bush period, transatlantic powers like the United States and Britain, with direct military presence, tried to directly determine the order of the region and not use the proxy method. Their excuse for direct involvement was not only the internal conflict in the region, but also the emergence of a self-made phenomenon called terrorism.
But now, considering the important role that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has played in Syria and Iraq, we are witnessing the formation of a third model of regional order. In this model, a regional power like Iran has the potential of restoring stability to other countries involved in the civil war, and diplomatically so powerful that it can capture other regional and transatlantic actors such as Turkey or Russia Accompanied by yourself. In such a situation, the order of the region is determined by a supreme regional power, and other actors must set their own interests based on the ratio of those with the highest power.
Undoubtedly, the powers that had ever gained the benefits of the role of Western powers in the region would not be happy with the new order and seek to tension. However, if the Arab powers, if viewed realistically, will find that approaching Tehran and working with Iran to restore stability to the region and end the ferocious wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen can be in the interest of all countries. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and other governments that have already paid for the direct US and British military presence in the region should know that if they bring stability to the Middle East through cooperation with Iran, they will incur fewer costs And will no longer need to use their oil dollars for the benefit of Western governments.
The intrinsic order of the West Asian region is a phenomenon that has not been experienced for nearly a century, and maybe recent developments in Syria and Iraq could help it. The global experience has shown that Europeans, through the same model, were able to turn the green continent from a built-up to continental shelf after World War II, and so the fate could be ahead of the Middle East, of course, if the hands behind the curtain And the warlord lobbies allow the establishment of such an order.
About the author:
*Sajad Abedi is a Resident Research Fellow at the National Security and Defense Think Tank. He obtained his Ph. D. degree in National Security from the Nationl Defense University under group of leader of Islamic Republic of Iran. His research interests pertain to Arab-Israeli studies, the Cyber Security studies and National Security.
This article was published by Modern Diplomacy