Can Netanyahu Survive Without War? – OpEd

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, has long been associated with a hardline stance on security issues, often leveraging military actions to bolster his political standing. However, the question of whether he can survive politically without war is complex and multifaceted. Netanyahu’s political survival hinges on the current political landscape, his reliance on conflict as a tool for consolidating power, and the significant challenges he faces in maintaining authority without resorting to military action.

Netanyahu’s Political Landscape

Netanyahu’s political survival has been a remarkable feat, given the numerous challenges he has faced, including corruption allegations and opposition from within his own coalition. His ability to maintain power is largely due to his skill in navigating Israel’s complex political system and leveraging external factors to his advantage. The ongoing conflict with Hamas has provided Netanyahu with a rallying point, allowing him to consolidate support by framing himself as a strong leader in times of crisis.

However, recent developments suggest that Netanyahu’s reliance on war might not be as effective as it once was. The ceasefire with Hamas, while initially seen as a strategic move, has been criticized for giving Hamas an opportunity to reorganize itself. This has led to accusations that Netanyahu prioritized political survival over national security interests.

The Role of War in Netanyahu’s Politics

War has historically been a tool for Netanyahu to galvanize public support and maintain his political base. During times of conflict, Israelis often rally behind their leaders, a phenomenon known as “rallying around the flag”. This effect can temporarily boost Netanyahu’s popularity and distract from domestic issues such as corruption allegations and economic challenges.

However, the prolonged nature of the current conflict and the economic strain it imposes on Israel have begun to erode this support. The war has hit the Israeli economy hard, with the stock market declining and consumer spending decreasing. Moreover, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has sparked international criticism, further complicating Netanyahu’s position.

Challenges Without War

If Netanyahu were to pursue a path without war, he would face several significant challenges:

1. Coalition Stability: Netanyahu’s government is held together by a fragile coalition of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. These partners have been critical of any concessions to Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, making it difficult for Netanyahu to negotiate peace without risking his coalition.

2. Hostage Crisis: The ongoing hostage situation with Hamas remains unresolved, with many families of hostages calling for stronger action to secure their release. Without a military solution, Netanyahu must find alternative ways to address this issue, which could further strain his political capital.

3. Economic Pressures: The economic costs of war are substantial, and without conflict, Netanyahu would need to address these issues through other means. This includes managing the budget and appeasing ultra-Orthodox parties demanding exemptions from military service.

4. International Pressure: The international community, particularly the United States under President Trump, has been influential in shaping Netanyahu’s actions. While Trump’s administration has provided some support, there are also pressures to engage in peace negotiations, which could undermine Netanyahu’s hardline stance.

5. Judicial Reforms and Public Protests: Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms have sparked widespread protests across Israel. These reforms are seen by many as an attempt to undermine judicial independence and consolidate executive power.

Growing International Criticism

Netanyahu’s international standing has also taken a hit in recent years. According to a 2024 Pew Research Center survey, a majority of Americans (53%) expressed little or no confidence in Netanyahu’s ability to handle world affairs responsibly. This marks an 11-point increase in negative sentiment since 2023. The decline is particularly pronounced among younger Americans and Democrats, reflecting broader generational and partisan divides in attitudes toward Israel under Netanyahu’s leadership.

This growing skepticism extends beyond Netanyahu himself to perceptions of the Israeli government as a whole. Favorable views of the Israeli government among Americans have declined from 47% in 2022 to 41% in 2024. These shifts suggest that Netanyahu’s hardline policies are increasingly out of step with global public opinion, particularly among younger and more liberal demographics.

Netanyahu’s ability to survive without war is uncertain and fraught with challenges. While he has managed to maintain power through a combination of political maneuvering and military action, the current landscape suggests that this strategy may not be sustainable. The economic costs of war, international pressure for peace, and domestic political tensions all pose significant hurdles.