BRICS Membership: Opportunity Or Risk? – OpEd

The BRICS Summit gathered this week in Kazan, the capital of the Republic of Tatarstan, a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. This marked the largest international meeting hosted by Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, drawing participation from over 30 countries. (1)

Designed largely under the leadership of President Putin as a platform to counterbalance the global dominance of the US-led Western bloc, the BRICS group entered the international stage in 2009 with the involvement of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and the Republic of South Africa joined the group in 2010. The group adopted the acronym BRICS+ with the addition of Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia at the beginning of this year.

Currently, comprising nine member nations, the group has attracted considerable interest: according to recent statements, 26 countries have formally applied for membership, and 22 others have expressed interest. This list includes countries such as Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, Cuba, Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand, Serbia, Algeria, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Venezuela. Therefore, it is highly likely that the group will expand its membership rapidly in the near future.

The surge in applications to join the group reflects the growing discontent in recent years with the Western-centric global order, particularly against the United States. Many countries in the Global South feel increasingly isolated in the face of institutions like the United Nations, IMF, and the World Bank, which embody the established world order.

One of the countries that has loudly voiced its discomfort with the current global order is Türkiye. Recently, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, regarding the BRICS membership application, openly expressed Türkiye’s discontent once again by saying, “If our economic integration with the European Union (EU) had been crowned with membership, perhaps we would not be in such a search on many issues. (2)

However, Türkiye’s exploration of new avenues is not solely due to being shut out by the EU. The implicit or overt support given by the US and the EU for the establishment of a Kurdish state south of Türkiye has had a far more significant impact on Türkiye’s gradual distancing from the West. For this reason alone, Türkiye’s pursuit of BRICS membership should come as no surprise. After all, Türkiye is expected to join BRICS in the near future as a “member state” or at least as a “partner state”, and in this case, Türkiye will be the first NATO member among the countries in the group.

Türkiye’s decision to apply for BRICS membership, alongside its discontent with the global order, is also driven by significant geopolitical and geoeconomic reasons. Primarily, in a region where geopolitical competition is rapidly intensifying, the positioning of Russia, and especially China – whose political, economic, commercial, and technological influence is growing – as counterweights to the US bloc is not a situation unique to Türkiye. The rising interest in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East and Caucasus attests to this fact.

On the other hand, among the reasons why Türkiye wants to join the group are the desire to develop trade relations with member countries and the expectation of benefiting from the group’s financial resources. In this context, being part of BRICS would provide Türkiye with significant advantages in terms of participating in projects that are of direct interest to the country, such as the Middle Corridor connecting China and Europe and the International North-South Transport Corridor led by Russia.

Moreover, considering that Türkiye is heavily dependent on Russia for energy imports and that its first nuclear power plant is being built by this country, it is a strategic choice for Türkiye to be part of the BRICS structure together with Russia, with which it has been building increasingly warm relations in recent years.

Türkiye, which has been strengthening its ties with Russia and China for a long time, does not see the BRICS decision as a deviation from its traditional orientation towards the West and describes BRICS as a complementary platform rather than an alternative to its relations with the West. (3) However, with the growing interest in BRICS, led by China and Russia, it cannot be said that the possibility of a regional power like Türkiye, which could change the balance, joining the group does not excite the nerves of the Western bloc. If anti-Western sentiments within the group take on a more confrontational tone, the existing sensitivities may heighten, potentially alienating Türkiye from its strategic partners, such as the US and the EU, with whom it has traditionally maintained strong relations.

However, it is still unclear what the future direction of BRICS will be. Despite all its expansion, the group has yet to form a coherent institutional identity bound by a common set of rules. Furthermore, we know that there are significant rivalries and tensions among various countries within the group, such as India and China, India and Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Egypt and Ethiopia. We must also note that dissatisfaction with the international order does not resonate equally among all BRICS-affiliated countries. For instance, it cannot be said that countries such as India and Malaysia are seeking a new world order or share the same ideas as the others regarding the breaking of the dominance of the dollar in international trade^,, (4) (5) which seems to be one of the main goals of the group. Therefore, it is quite difficult to predict today how long-lasting BRICS will be, or at least to what extent it will be successful.

Currently, even though the group’s focus seems primarily on global economics and trade, it is worth noting that China and Russia, as apparent leaders of BRICS, are two significant rivals to the Western bloc in the global power struggle, suggesting that political and military challenges may become more prominent over time. Indeed, Putin frequently speaks of creating a “new world order” to counterbalance the geopolitical and economic dominance of the US-led Western bloc, signalling that the BRICS format aims to challenge the West economically and geopolitically.^,(6) (7)

It is not easy to predict the fate of BRICS at this point. Will this initiative gradually fade away due to internal disparities? Or will it pioneer the way toward a reformed world system that addresses today’s criticized global structures? Or will it evolve into an institutional structure representing an authoritarian civilization, departing from democratic norms?

The choices of BRICS will undoubtedly have an impact on the future of Türkiye, as they will on many other nations.

Endnotes:

1.  AlJazeera, 2024. Russia’s Putin welcomes world leaders for three-day BRICS summit, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/22/russias-putin-welcomes-world-leaders-for-three-day-brics-summit, 22 October 2024.
2.  Euronews, 2024. Turkey wouldn’t be interested in joining BRICS if it was an EU member state, foreign minister says, https://www.euronews.com/2024/09/19/Türkiye-wouldnt-be-interested-in-brics-if-it-was-an-eu-member-state-foreign-minister-says, 19 September 2024.
3.  A News, 2024. FM Fidan on joining BRICS: Türkiye in pursuit of where its interests lie, https://www.anews.com.tr/turkey/2024/06/24/fm-fidan-on-joining-brics-turkiye-in-pursuit-of-where-its-interests-lie, 24 June 2024.
4.  Geopolitical Monitor, 2024. Is BRICS De-Dollarization Program a Step Too Far for India?, https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/is-brics-de-dollarization-program-a-step-too-far-for-india/, 16 October 2024.
5.  The Hindu, 2024. Vladmir Putin for creating parallel SWIFT system to break U.S. dollar dominance, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/vladmir-putin-for-creating-parallel-swift-system-to-break-us-dollar-dominance/article68773237.ece, 19 October 2024.
6.  CNBC, 2024. Russia pushes ‘new world order’ agenda as it hosts beefed-up BRICS summit, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/russia-hosts-brics-summit-pushes-new-world-order-agenda-to-rival-west.html, 22 October 2024.
7.  The Telegraph, 2024. New world order is forming, Putin tells growing Brics summit, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/23/new-world-order-forming-putin-tells-summit-brics/, 22 October 2024.