Why Have ‘Rare Earths’ Become A Critical Issue In Bid To End Russian-Ukrainian War? – Analysis

Trumps needs Ukrainian and Russian rare earths to make American industries grow in competition with China’s.     

Certain elements known as “rare earths” have become critical in the search for a way to end the Russo-Ukrainian war that has been going on for three years without an end in sight. 

The unconventional US President, Donald Trump, had thought of a unique way of ending the war –  by doing a deal with Ukraine and Russia that would benefit all three parties- Ukraine, Russia and the United States.

Under the deal, the US would be given access to rare earth deposits in Ukraine and Russia in return for trade and economic cooperation that would boost all three economies and, in the process, bring the curtains down on the war, that has been adversely affecting all three countries.   

Both Ukraine and Russia have given their nod to discuss the deal. But  both have unresolved security issues to be addressed. Trump has not shared his ideas on these security issues so far, though his top officials have indicated what they might be. The officials endorse Russia’s stand which Ukraine has rejected. 

Be that as it may be talks are to take place between Trump and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington shortly. Trump is to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia later. The security issue is expected to be discussed in these meetings.

Security Issues

Russia does not want to give back the territories it had captured and annexed since 2022. Moscow currently controls an estimated two-thirds of Donetsk, three-quarters of Zaporizhia and Kherson, and 99% of Luhansk. In its view, these territories are needed for its security against NATO. 

Also, Russia does not consider Ukraine a separate country. Putin claims that Ukraine didn’t exist as a separate state and had never been a nation. Instead, he argues that Ukrainian nationality was always an integral part of a “triune” nationality: Russian, Belorussian, and Ukrainian. 

Putin also writes that Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians share a common heritage—the heritage of a realm known as Kievan Rus (862–1242 AD), which was a loose medieval political federation located in modern-day Belarus, Ukraine, and part of Russia.

On its part, Ukraine does not accept Putin’s concept of sameness and points out that Moscow recognised Ukraine as a separate country after the Soviet Union split in 1991. Ukraine does not want to give up its claims to territories Russia had captured in the war. It certainly does not want to give up its independent status. 

US Stand 

As for the US, its Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed the Russian view when he told Ukraine Defence Contact Group partners in Brussels that “returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective,” and that “the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.” 

Historically, NATO membership has been a US promise to Ukraine since 2008. And the US has, throughout the war, supported a restoration of its borders with Russia as of 1991. Trump wants to abrogate both commitments now.   

Trumps Questions Zelenskeyy’s Stature

Trump even challenged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskeyy’s political stature, saying that his approval rating was at 4% and that he had “never seen an accounting” of the “US$ 350 billion” given by the US to Ukraine through the war. Both were challenged by research institutions. 

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, which conducts nationwide surveys in Ukraine, said that Zelenskyy’s approval rating was 57%.  And according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which tracks military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, the US had donated US$ 114 billion and the European Union US$ 132 billion over three years. A far cry from Trump’s estimates. 

Zelenskyy said that Trump was “caught in a web of disinformation” and Trump responded saying Zelenskyy was a “modestly successful comedian who had become a dictator without elections and had done a terrible job”.

Rare Earths Deal

It was in the midst of such unseemly wrangling that Trump came out with the novel idea of a deal involving rare earths deposits in Ukraine and Russia. The US wants rare earths, and Ukraine and Russia have them. A deal on them will end the war and restore broken economies of the three countries, Trump thinks. 

Trump told Fox News on February 10, “I told Ukraine that I want the equivalent of, like, US$ 500 billion worth of rare earth, and they’ve essentially agreed to do that.” 

Rare earth minerals are strategic metals essential for developing computers, batteries, and cutting-edge energy technologies. They are actually abundant in the Earth’s crust across the globe. In 2024, the United States Geological Survey estimated that there were 110 million tonnes of rare earth deposits worldwide, including 44 million in China – by far the world’s largest producer. 

A further 22 million tonnes are estimated in Brazil, 21 million in Vietnam, while Russia has 10 million and India, seven million tonnes. 

According to The Guardian each of the 17 rare earths are used in industry and in a wide variety of devices, from lightbulbs to guided missiles. Europium is used in fluorescent-light and radar systems; cerium is used for polishing glass and in automobile catalytic converters; lanthanum salts are used in refining oil while alloys with lanthanum are used in the power systems of hybrid and hydrogen-gas cars. 

Neodymium and dysprosium, for example, allow the fabrication of almost permanent, super-strong magnets that require little maintenance, making viable the placement of ocean wind turbines to generate electricity far from the coastline.

And all have unique properties that are almost irreplaceable or can be substituted only at prohibitive costs.

The Guardian says that mining the metals requires heavy chemical use that results in huge amounts of toxic waste which has caused several environmental disasters, making many countries wary of shouldering the considerable costs for production. And these rare earths are often found in minute ore concentrations, meaning large amounts of rock must be processed to produce the refined product, often in powder form.

China’s Dominance  

The Guardian further says that, “For decades, China has made the most of its rare earth reserves by investing massively in refining operations – often without the strict environmental oversight required in western countries. China has also filed a huge number of patents on rare earth production, an obstacle to companies in other countries hoping to launch large-scale processing.”

“As a result, while rare earths reserves are plentiful elsewhere, many firms find it cheaper to ship their unprocessed ore to China for refining, further reinforcing the world’s reliance. The US and EU get most of their supply from China, but both are trying to boost their own production to reduce dependence on Beijing.” 

If Trump pulls off a deal with Ukraine and Russia on rear earth supplies, it will be of huge advantage to the US in its burgeoning competition with China.

Unanswered Questions 

But there are unanswered questions: 

1)    Will Ukraine agree to a humiliating deal with Trump and Russia, especially so soon after winning a vote in the UN General Assembly by a massive majority against the US and Russia? 

2)    Will Ukraine agree to a humiliating deal while having the full support of Europe? 

3)    Will Ukraine write off its territories to Russia that had been taken by force of arms? 

4)    Will these questions be answered at the Trump-Zelenskyy talks in Washington and the Trump-Putin talks in Riyadh?