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Pakistan A Victim Of Geopolitics – Analysis

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Since independence Pakistan has remained the focus of global and regional powers. The country is termed a natural corridor for trade ‑ including energy products ‑ gateway to Central Asia and landlocked Afghanistan. There is a perception that often regimes are installed and toppled in Pakistan by the super powers to achieve their vested interest. This is evident from cold war era to occupation of Afghanistan and from love and hate relationship with India to creation of Taliban (phantom now having many offspring).

At present Pakistan is facing extremely volatile situation, which has become a threat for its own existence. Fighting a proxy war for United States in Afghanistan for nearly four decade has completely destroyed the economic and social fabric of the country.

Pakistan
Pakistan

Pakistan is suffering from the influx of foreign militant groups getting funds and arms from different global operators.
Analysts say over the years Pakistan has been towing foreign and military policy of the United States, which has often offended USSR, China, India and Iran. Therefore, one needs to analyze Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan, India and Iran, enjoying common borders with the country. It may not be wrong to say that at present Pakistan doesn’t enjoy cordial relation with none of these countries.

Pakistan helped Afghans in averting USSR attack. After the pullout of USSR forces Afghanistan plunged into civil war. It was often alleged that Pushtoons were supported by Pakistan and Northern Alliance was highly annoyed. After 9/11 Pakistan was made to fight Taliban under the US dictate. As the time for withdrawal of Nato forces is getting closer Pakistan once again faces a precarious position.

When British Raj left the subcontinent in 1947 it left a thorn, Kashmir. Since independence India and Pakistan have been living in constant state of war, spending billions of dollars annually on the purchase of conventional as well as non-conventional arms and have also attained the status of atomic powers. However, both the countries suffer from extreme poverty. There seems no probability of reconciliation between the two countries because of presence of hawks on both the sides. Even the trade relations could not be normalized due to Kashmir dispute as Hindus are not ready for another division of Hindustan on the basis of religion.

Pakistan and Iran have enjoyed the best time till toppling of Shah’s rule as both the countries were under the US influence. Iran has been persistently enduring economic sanctions for more than three decades after the Islamic revolution. Pakistan is suffering from severe energy crisis but not allowed to construct Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline or even buy Iranian crude oil under food for oil program. Iran has often complaint that certain outfits, most notorious being Jundullah, having its base in Balochistan province of Pakistan, are involved in cross border terrorism.

Pakistan also faces a difficult situation when Saudi Arabia, under the US pressure asks it to do or not to do certain things. One such example is Saudi Arabia promising to meet Pakistan’s oil requirement if it opts not to buy Iranian oil. There are also allegations and counter allegations that Saudi Arabia and Iran are supporting Sunni and Shia factions in Pakistan. This point is being highlighted by referring to sectarian killings. However, Pakistanis have no doubt that killing is being done by those who are neither Sunni nor Shia. This point got credence when it was discovered that Taliban involved in attack on Peshawar airbase had tattoos on their bodies.

Till today, Pakistan offers the shortest and cost effective route to landlocked Afghanistan, leading to Central Asian countries. Gwadar deep seaport has been constructed in Balochistan province with the financial and technical assistance of China. India often raises its concerns on Chinese presence along Pakistan’s coastal belt. However, India is not only constructing Chabahar port in Iran but also road and rail links up to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

Pakistanis completely fail to understand the duality of US policy. India was asked to withdraw itself from Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project and also rewarded nuclear technology in return. On top of that it has not been stopped from building port and supporting infrastructure in Iran. Some experts say all this is being done to construct an alternate route once the objective of creation of greater Balochistan is achieved. This new country will be created taking one slice each from Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The level of US pressure on Pakistan can also be gauged from the fact that President, Asif Ali Zardari, on the eleventh hour, cancelled his visit to Tehran and went straight to UK. The new date of his visit to Iran has not been announced as yet. This reminds Pakistani’s of a similar cancelled visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and he instead went to United States.
It is also on record that Chinese experts working in Pakistan have often come under attack to make them leave Pakistan. Chinese experts working on Gwadar and Thar coal projects have been repeatedly attacked. At one stage it was feared that Chinese will completely withdraw their support for Thar coal mining and power plant.

China has also complaints that some extremist Muslim groups are trying to create disturbance in one of its province bordering with Pakistan. It seems these attempts are made to disrupt trade being done through this land route.



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Shabbir H. Kazmi

Shabbir H. Kazmi

Shabbir H. Kazmi is an economic analyst from Pakistan. He has been writing for local and foreign publications for about quarter of a century. He maintains the blog ‘Geo Politics in South Asia and MENA’. He can be contacted at [email protected]

3 thoughts on “Pakistan A Victim Of Geopolitics – Analysis

  • Avatar
    December 27, 2012 at 2:01 pm
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    I am an Indian and to be honest met many Pakistanis and very nice people/friends. Similar life, culture, thought process and history. May be some difference in some aspects which can happen within India between Tamilian and Punjabi (different food, practices, interests) but same nation.

    Pakistan need a deep breathe to bunk its 60 year old thinking and re-think. It will have short term pain but absolute long term gain. Wean away from US gradually using nation first policy using calibered adjustments. Build silent bridge with India, Iran, CIS, Russia and rampup China relationship. Silence on India border and some consistent visit to India from broad spectrum and be blunt/frank on sincereity of change.

    If India dont want another Western invasion of life, then it need to bring that good big brother steps to give sustained multi-year multi-billion dollar aids to all nations around India to grow and grow together. Else, it will be more like nation lost in dreamland than a big growing nation alongwith China.

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  • Avatar
    December 27, 2012 at 4:05 pm
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    Pakistan is a victim of misguided policies by its rulers. Until recently, Pakistan used terrorism as instrument of state and resorted to asymmetrical warfare against its archenemy India.

    Mr. Kazmi stated that “fighting a proxy war for United States in Afghanistan for nearly four decade has completely destroyed the economic and social fabric of the country”. The reverse is true; Pakistan continues to provide logistic support to the Afghan Taliban and is engaged in a proxy war against the United States. The duplicity of Pakistan was exposed to the world when Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011 in a raid by the US Navy Seals in Abbottabad near a military garrison; Pakistan was caught sheltering and harboring the al-Qaeda leader. Pakistan played with fire and is now suffering the consequences.

    Mr. Kazmi alluded to “some extremist Muslim groups” in Balochistan harassing Chinese experts in Balochistan. Actually, these are Baloch nationalists fighting for autonomy; rulers of Pakistan are dismissive of their demands and calls them “miscreants” or “misguided elements”.

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  • Avatar
    January 2, 2013 at 9:05 pm
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    I read this several days ago and had to think about anything i could offer in the way of an opinion; the situation in Pakistan has further deteriorated since your last posting, Shabbir, or so it seems to an outsider; I just read about the killing of the medical workers and Doctor who were administering polio vaccines and of course, was horrified; as you may know, we have had mass shootings here of late as well, and there are many theories about why that is happening; Tell me this, what do you think would happen if your government totally withdrew from any commitments and ties it has with our government; i do not mean in a hostile way, but a matter-of-fact way, as a way to curb violence and restore good relations with YOUR neighbors; what kind of effect do you think it would have on the violence erupting in Pakistan? i see many benefits for Pakistan: for one, it would seem to be a way to solve your energy crisis..?

    Reply

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