ISSN 2330-717X

Armenians Fear Neither West Nor CSTO Will Block Baku On Zengezur Corridor – OpEd

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Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s statement that he is prepared to use force to ensure that a transit corridor opens between Azerbaijan proper and the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan opens as called for in the November 2020 declaration ending the 44-day war has sparked outrage in Armenia.

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It has led Yerevan to appeal to numerous countries and international organizations in the hopes of finding allies for Armenia to resist this Azerbaijani “ultimatum,” but it has also led, Moscow’s Nezavisimaya gazeta says, to a recognition that neither the West nor the CSTO is prepared to block Azerbaijani assertiveness (ng.ru/cis/2021-12-08/5_8321_armenia.html).

What that means, Yury Roks, a specialist on the former Soviet space at that newspaper, says is that both the Armenian government and the Armenian opposition feel that the only hope they have to prevent Azerbaijan from moving in the direction Aliyev has indicated rests with the personal intervention of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

What that almost certainly means is that Armenia officially and unofficially will defer to the Kremlin on a variety of issues in the hope that doing so will prevent Yerevan from losing the Syunik region to Azerbaijan, something that would further isolate Armenia and allow for a further linking up of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia’s worst nightmare.

The fact that both government and opposition in Yerevan have concluded that they cannot get effective assistance from elsewhere likely means that Nikol Pashinyan and other Armenian officials will defer to Putin in what would otherwise be unexpected ways, Roks’ article suggests.   

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Paul Goble

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Earlier, he served as vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. He has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Goble maintains the Window on Eurasia blog and can be contacted directly at [email protected] .

2 thoughts on “Armenians Fear Neither West Nor CSTO Will Block Baku On Zengezur Corridor – OpEd

  • January 29, 2022 at 11:57 am
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    Paul Goble, director at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy, and Analyst on Soviet Nationalities, US Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the CIA, advocates the invasion of a sovereign country — Armenia.

    If Azerbaijan invades Armenia or coerces Armenia into giving up its recognized sovereign territory, the Armenian government will violently collapse. This collapse will not be in the interest of Azerbaijan, the West, nor the CSTO. Mr. Goble, what would your advice to Baku be in that eventuality, since you can’t have it both ways?

    Yerevan, Armenia

    Reply
  • January 29, 2022 at 12:28 pm
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    Paul, Paul, stop with your propaganda and misinformation, your title says it all ” Director of research & publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic academy.. Really?? or in simple English a paid so called consultant for the dictator of Azerbaijan.
    You know and the globally community knows there was never any corridor, or alley, or street or avenue or any such garbage discussed nor even included in the signed agreements.
    Now be a good boy and get a real job, that leash will soon begin to burn

    Reply

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