Supporting Burma’s Democratic Transition: A Strategic Imperative For America’s Security, Strength, And Prosperity – OpEd

In a Press Statement issued on January 26, 2025, regarding the implementation of the President’s Executive Order on Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid, Secretary of State Marco Rubio articulated a clear directive for U.S. foreign policy. He emphasized, “Every dollar expended, every program funded, and every policy pursued must be justified by answering three fundamental questions: Does it enhance America’s security? Does it bolster America’s strength? Does it augment America’s prosperity?”

From the perspective of a Burmese American advocate for freedom and democracy in Burma, supporting the country’s democratic transition unequivocally satisfies all three criteria. This policy not only aligns seamlessly with America’s core values but also addresses a critical strategic oversight in Southeast Asia—one that carries profound implications for regional stability, economic growth, and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific theater. By championing Burma’s democratic aspirations, the United States stands to fortify its position in a region of escalating geopolitical significance.

Why Burma Matters: The Strategic Blind Spot

Burma (Myanmar) occupies a pivotal position in Southeast Asia, bridging South and Southeast Asia while providing China direct access to the Indian Ocean. Its strategic importance has grown exponentially as China has expanded its influence through projects like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and critical oil and gas pipelines. Yet, Burma has often been overlooked in U.S. foreign policy, creating what analysts call a “strategic blind spot.”

The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC)

The CMEC is a cornerstone of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia, with far-reaching implications for regional geopolitics and energy security:

Strategic Access to the Indian Ocean: CMEC provides China with a crucial gateway to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Strait of Malacca. This addresses China’s “Malacca Dilemma” by reducing reliance on a potential chokepoint through which approximately 80% of its oil imports currently pass.

Energy Security: The oil and gas pipelines running from Myanmar’s western coast to China’s Yunnan province are critical components of CMEC. With an annual capacity of 22 million tons, the oil pipeline could potentially account for over 4% of China’s total oil imports if brought to full capacity.

Economic Development: CMEC aims to boost economic growth in China’s underdeveloped western regions, particularly Yunnan province, while opening Myanmar’s market to Chinese goods and services.

Regional Influence: The project deepens China’s economic and political influence in Myanmar, potentially bringing it further into Beijing’s orbit and helping China compete with other regional powers, particularly India, for influence in the strategically important Bay of Bengal region.

Rare Earth Elements (REEs)

Burma’s significance extends beyond its geographical position to its mineral wealth, particularly its reserves of rare earth elements (REEs):

Critical Resources: REEs are a group of 17 chemical elements crucial for advanced technologies, including renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, and military equipment. Four REEs – neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium – are particularly important for the clean energy sector.

Global Supply: As of 2023, China remains the dominant global producer of REEs, producing approximately 240,000 metric tons, accounting for about 68.6% of global production. However, Burma has emerged as a significant player, producing an estimated 38,000 metric tons of rare-earth oxide equivalent, representing approximately 10.9% of global production. This makes Burma the second-largest producer globally, surpassing the United States.

China’s Dependence on Burmese REEs: A substantial portion of China’s REE exports actually originate from Burma. In 2023, China imported 41,700 tonnes of heavy rare earth oxides from Burma, which is more than double China’s own quota for domestic heavy rare earth element (HREE) mining. This indicates that a significant part of China’s REE exports are actually re-exports of materials originally sourced from Burma.

Unregulated Extraction: Unregulated mines in Burma, particularly in Kachin State bordering China, have become an essential source of heavy rare earth elements (HREEs). This extraction often comes at a severe environmental and human cost, with reports of widespread pollution and health issues among local communities.

Strategic Implications: The control of REE supply chains has significant geopolitical implications. The United States and its allies are actively seeking to diversify their sources of these critical materials to reduce dependence on China. Burma’s role as a major source of REEs, even those exported through China, makes it a crucial player in global supply chains.

Making America Safer

Supporting Burma’s democratic transition enhances American security in several ways:

Combating Transnational Crime: Under military rule, Burma has become a haven for Chinese-backed cybercrime syndicates targeting Americans and others globally. A democratic government would be more likely to cooperate in dismantling these networks.

Curbing Narcotics Production: Burma is a major producer of methamphetamines, fueling organized crime and addiction crises worldwide. A democratic Burma would be better positioned to combat drug trafficking.

Mitigating Extremism Risks: While not currently widespread, the persecution of minorities like the Rohingya Muslims creates conditions that could lead to radicalization. Democratic reforms can address these root causes of potential extremism.

Reducing Regional Instability: The ongoing conflicts and refugee crises stemming from Burma’s internal strife have destabilizing effects on neighboring countries. A democratic Burma would likely be better positioned to address these issues, potentially promoting regional stability. China’s current policy of supporting the military junta, contrary to the aspirations of the Burmese people, may be counterproductive to long-term regional stability.

Making America Stronger

Supporting Burma’s democratic transition strengthens America’s global position:

Countering China’s Influence: A democratic Burma would be better equipped to resist China’s economic coercion through projects like CMEC, helping maintain the balance of power in this critical region. This could potentially limit China’s ability to project maritime power into the Indian Ocean and reduce its control over critical energy routes.

Securing Critical Resources: Burma’s significant reserves of REEs are crucial for advanced technologies. Collaboration with a democratic Burma could secure these supply chains, reducing U.S. dependence on China for materials essential to high-tech industries and defense applications. Given that a large portion of China’s REE exports originate from Burma, engaging directly with a democratic Burma could provide more transparent and ethical sourcing of these critical materials.

Strengthening Regional Alliances: A democratic Burma would likely align more closely with ASEAN’s democratic members and the U.S., reinforcing America’s network of allies in the Indo-Pacific. This could create a more united front against authoritarian influence in the region.

Enhancing Diplomatic Leadership: Successfully supporting Burma’s transition would reaffirm America’s commitment to democracy and human rights, enhancing its soft power globally while demonstrating leadership in addressing authoritarianism.

Making America More Prosperous

A democratic Burma offers significant economic benefits for the United States:

Opening New Markets: With over 55 million people, Burma represents an untapped market with immense growth potential once it transitions to democracy. This could create new opportunities for U.S. businesses across various sectors.

Promoting Fair Competition: Transparent economic policies in a democratic Burma would allow U.S. businesses to compete more effectively against Chinese state-backed enterprises, which currently dominate many sectors of Burma’s economy.

Benefiting U.S.-Friendly Trade Partners: A stable and democratic Burma would enhance trade opportunities for U.S.-aligned nations in Southeast Asia, strengthening economic ties across the region and potentially creating new supply chain alternatives to China.

Diversifying Energy Routes: While the current oil and gas pipelines primarily benefit China, a democratic Burma could potentially diversify its energy partnerships, providing new opportunities for U.S. and allied energy companies while reducing China’s leverage over regional energy infrastructure.

The Path Forward

In conclusion, supporting Burma’s democratic transition is a multifaceted strategy that directly addresses Secretary Rubio’s key questions. As someone who understands the value of freedom from tyranny, Secretary Rubio is uniquely positioned to appreciate why supporting Burma’s democratic transition is crucial. It’s an opportunity to reaffirm America’s role as a champion of freedom while simultaneously advancing its security, diplomatic, and economic interests in one of the most strategically significant regions of the world—the Indo-Pacific.

By addressing this strategic blind spot through targeted sanctions on the military junta, non-lethal aid to pro-democracy forces, and sustained humanitarian assistance, the United States can make significant strides in making America safer, stronger, and more prosperous while fostering democracy and stability in Southeast Asia.