Protecting Shipping In The Strait Of Hormuz Will Be Politically Difficult – Analysis

Given that about one fifth of daily global oil production passes through the Strait of Hormuz https://www.dw.com/en/oman-may-mediate-between-iran-and-uk-over-tanker-crisis/a-49761892,  the security and safety of shipping there is critical to the world’s energy and economy. But since the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement and unilaterally slapped sanctions on Iran, US-Iran relations have been in free fall and the security situation has rapidly deteriorated. They have downed each other’s drones and threatened each other with further kinetic actions.  Worse, Iran thinks the UK seizure an oil tanker carrying Iranian oil was instigated by the U.S.  In response, Iran has seized a British oil tanker.   As a result, the risk level for foreign shipping in the region has risen to ‘critical’ – the UK’s highest threat.   Now both the U.S. and the U.K. are proposing multinational efforts to address the situation.  But their implementation will be politically difficult.

The U.S. is proposing “Operation Sentinel” to “promote maritime stability, ensure safe passage, and de-escalate tensions in international waters throughout the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Oman.” https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/middle-east/1563593118-us-announces-multinational-maritime-effort-to-secure-gulf-waters-following-seizure-of-tankers The early focus would most likely be on the main trouble spot – the Strait of Hormuz.  https://www.americanshipper.com/magazine/daily/?year=2019&month=6&day=25&page_number=3&via=asdaily;https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/u-s-launches-maritime-security-initiative-for-strait-of-hormuz 

The U.S. has asked the U.K., France, Germany, Norway, Japan, South Korea and Australia to participate. http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0005899604The problem with the U.S. proposal is that many prospective participants – including US allies –are wary of joining US led and coordinated military cooperation there. The U.K., France and Germany opposed the US decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement and continue to honor the accord. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/23/jeremy-hunts-plan-of-european-led-maritime-force-in-gulf-hits-opposition  They fear that the U.S. will try to use the effort to press its unilateral “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, including its attempts to totally ban Iranian oil exports. In short, they think a US-led effort will only escalate the situation, thus making it worse for their interests.

The U.S. is trying to allay this concern.  US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford said “This is not related to the pressure campaign on Iran.  It’s focused on freedom of navigation.”  https://insurancemarinenews.com/insurance-marine-news/us-sees-european-initiative-as-complementary-to-its-operation-sentinel/ The U.S. says that Operation Sentinel “will enable nations to provide escort to their flagged vessels while taking advantage of the cooperation of participating nations for coordination and enhanced maritime domain awareness and surveillance.”  In other words the U.S. will co-ordinate and provide intelligence– but others will have to escort and protect their own flagged ships. https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/07/18/world/middleeast/18reuters-mideast-iran-usa-maritime-exclusive.html

But this concern persists. The evolving US plan is based on a conference held in Poland in February that was criticized by some countries as having been used by the U.S. to focus on its bilateral problems with Iran thathttps://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/led-middle-east-summit-warsaw-190212230343271.html  US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has stated that the US mission is to “convince” Iran that ” this piracy, this terrorism, was unacceptable and the regime must change its ways”. https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/us-seeking-participation-of-other-countries-in-maritime-security-initiative-in-the-gulf-119072600130_1.html  In this context the head of US Central Command General “Frank” McKenzie did not help dispel the notion of US military dominance in regional affairs saying “Our ability to bring forces into the theater has acted to deter” the Iranians from more hostile acts. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190717000720   

Also looming in the background is the 33-nation naval partnership based in Bahrain and commanded by a US vice-admiral. https://breakingdefense.com/2019/06/us-wants-allies-to-do-more-in-gulf-but-theyre-already-there/  This particular grouping is committed to maintaining maritime security in the Arabian Sea.  But it is focused on counter-piracy.  It is not clear that most participants in this multilateral task force would participate in a military coalition escorting others’ tankers through Iranian waters.

Possible participants in the US-led coalition include Japan, China and India.   Last year about 86% of Japan’s annual oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-election-mideast-usa-explainer/explainer-japans-abe-faces-headache-from-u-s-plan-for-mideast-maritime-coalition-idUSKCN1UD0TD Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been pushing to change Japan’s pacifist constitution and public opinion so that it could to take a more active military role in the world. But even though his ruling coalition won the recent election, it did not maintain the required two-thirds majority to revise the constitution. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/07/22/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-vows-push-forward-constitutional-change-despite-failure-pro-revision-forces-win-upper-house-supermajority/  Moreover, Abe still wants to be a mediator between the U.S. and Iran and its participation would negate his neutrality in Iran’s eyes. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/23/jeremy-hunt-sides-with-eu-over-us-in-plan-to-address-gulf-crisis

In 2015, Japan passed legislation permitting it to provide logistical support to multi-national forces if another country is under attack –but only if the situation constitutes an “existential threat” to Japan.  Its participation in anti-piracy patrols off Somalia is not a relevant precedent because that involved protection against non-state actors. Sending the Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) to participate in a US-led operation would be highly controversial.  So it is not surprising that Japan has  apparently declined to join “Operation Sentinel”.  It might be possible to deploy JSDF assets to protect Japanese ships and cargo destined for Japan, but they could not protect other countries’ vessels.

China’s participation is a non-starter – not that it has been or will be asked. It sees Iran as a strategic partner in its Belt and Road Initiative and a critical supplier of its oil.  Moreover, China thinks Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran is the basic cause of the current crisis.  In addition, Law of the Sea issues may prevent participation by countries like China or India because they have the same or similar positions on freedom of navigation as Iran. Indeed, the U.S. often challenges their claims with freedom of navigation operations using warships and aircraft.  Thus participation in a US-led effort to ‘protect’ shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could undermine their legal position on these issues vis a vis that of the U.S.

India purchases the most oil from Iran after China. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-iran-oil/filling-iran-oil-gap-in-india-u-s-supplies-outshine-middle-east-crude-idUSKCN1TP11X  But it has never participated in foreign military task forces outside of the UN.   It will likely escort its own flagged vessels and it may continue to co-ordinate with the US military for logistical support such as refueling. Former Indian naval officer Abhijit Singh, of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation thinks that “_ _ _ in a conflict we will be neutral.  We will be drawn into it only if our shipping is hit”. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-iran-india/indian-warships-to-stay-longer-in-persian-gulf-but-wont-join-u-s-coalition-idUKKCN1UD21N 

So this brings us to the U.K. proposal which some say is complementary to and others say is opposite to that of the U.S. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-usa-europe/us-sees-european-maritime-security-effort-in-gulf-as-complementary-idUSKCN1UJ23D, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-france/france-germany-britain-working-on-maritime-observation-mission-in-gulf-le-drian-idUSKCN1UI1WO]

The U.K. is desperate to protect its shipping in the Gulf.  But it also recognizes the problems with a US-led coalition.  As French Foreign Minister Jaean Yves Le Drian said the European effort is “the opposite of the U.S. policy of maximum pressure.”  https://www.stripes.com/news/european-allies-spurn-us-effort-to-protect-ships-from-iran-1.591848  So the U.K. has proposed a European “coalition-lite” that may include countries from the Gulf. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/23/jeremy-hunts-plan-of-european-led-maritime-force-in-gulf-hits-opposition  It appears that the European effort will, if anything, be only to “monitor and observe” maritime security there. https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/iran-rejects-call-for-eu-led-security-mission-in-persian-gulf

The French and German foreign ministers have been cautious regarding the U.K. proposal. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-france/france-germany-britain-working-on-maritime-observation-mission-in-gulf-le-drian-idUSKCN1UI1WO  They “agreed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is a top priority for European nations, while avoiding escalation in the region.” https://www.gov.government/mews/strait-of-hormuz-incident-foreign-secretary-calls-with-french-and-german-foreign-ministers The UK arrest of a tanker carrying Iranian oil has done nothing to dim the impression that it is doing the U.S.’s  bidding – at least in Iran’s eyes.    Indeed some in the EU think this is “a mess of Britain’s own making” . https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/24/britains-power-play-in-the-persian-gulf/ They question if “there a real danger for internal shipping” or if this is just a temporary tiff between the U.K.  and Iran.  They may also worry that the election of Boris Johnson will bring U.K. foreign policy regarding Iran more in line with that of the U.S. https://www.google.com/search?q=the+guardian+view+on+the+british+arrest+of+an+iranian&rlz=1C1NHXL_enUS733US733&oq=the+guardian+view+on+the+british+arrest+of+an+iranian&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.22998j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 Another problem is that most European navies do not have the capability to undertake a sustained overseas effort.  

For logistical and political reasons few are likely to participate.  Germany has already indicated it will not—at least kinetically. In any case, a fatal blow to the UK proposal may have been struck when Iran rejected the  plan. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/23/jeremy-hunts-plan-of-european-led-maritime-force-in-gulf-hits-opposition Moreover, the main proponent, Jeremy Hunt, has been replaced as Foreign Minister and the idea has been opposed by some of the incoming Prime Minister’s closest supporters. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-oil-tanker-uk-strait-hormuz-gibraltar-syria-navy-a9021886.html Meanwhile the UK Navy is doing its best to escort its national flag vessels although it probably cannot protect them 24/7 throughout the Gulf by itself. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOLxT_UuLcw

These embryonic efforts have been called “coalitions of the willing. But at this stage they are more like coalitions of the ‘cautious’ and ‘reluctant’. Effective implementation will have to overcome many political and legal obstacles. 

The waters comprising the Strait of Hormuz are under the sovereignty of Iran and Oman.  Any initiative to protect shipping there should come from and be led by them. Indeed, Iran’s position is “either everyone enjoys full security or no one does”. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pompeo-pledges-collective-defense-of-shipping-threatened-by-iran

This piece first appeared in the IPP Review. https://ippreview.com/index.php/Blog/single/id/1036.html