The Potential Sources Of Change In Ethiopia – OpEd


The new status quo of Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, is trying to establish in the country is unsustainable for the following reasons:

1. There are no racial differences in Ethiopia but only non-basic language and religious differences which can easily be resolved through technical and political solutions.

2. Abiy is trying to establish ethnic hegemony and therefore ethnic inequality by population size.

3. Ethiopian territory is apportioned by ethnicity which aims to carve up the country into two or three bigger sovereign states leaving some 80 ethnic groups stateless with the fate of being incorporated into the bigger states which is totally unacceptable in the context of ethnicism.

4. The ethnic political arrangement has already caused ethnic genocide, ethnic cleansing and a bloody civil war which is still ranging at the time of writing.

5. The economy is crumbling, and inflation, unemployment and currency depreciation are at an all-time high.

6.Abiy is trying to mask the underlying political and economic chaos and mayhem by displaying fake megaprojects on TV; only the other day he was seen playing football on a medium-size Premier League type artificial turf pitch he ordered built even as hundreds of Ethiopians are perishing in the civil war his OPDO/OLF and Tplf deliberately created.

The potential sources of change as usual are the following:

1. The national military.

2. A splinter group within the government.

3. A Fano-like armed opposition group.

4. A spontaneous or organized popular uprising.

5. A foreign-orchestrated operation.

6. A combination of two or more of the above.

If corrective measures are not taken through the above-mentioned ways, Ethiopia will enter a period of permanent chaos and instability marked by civil war, genocide, ethnic cleansing, mass emigration, dislocation and untold economic suffering in which death may be preferred over life as a final solution!

Girma Berhanu

Girma Berhanu, Department of Education and Special Education (Professor), University of Gothenburg

10 thoughts on “The Potential Sources Of Change In Ethiopia – OpEd

  • October 29, 2022 at 2:20 am

    Ridiculous attempt to undermine Ethiopian integrity, Whoever the person wrote this is clearly have no clue about history, culture and strong moral and religious base that Ethiopian share in its long-standing history or deliberate propaganda campaign for the West.

  • October 29, 2022 at 2:55 am

    Dear professor Girma,

    Thank you for breaking down the current political condition of our country, I can’t agree more on what you have alreardy said. I would say, the current scenario in general is a written drama (foreign orchestrated) as you mentioned. In addition to fighting what the government is implementing , I strongly believe defending the puppet king leaders (that most of us don’t have a clue who this forces are), but they are the one proposing and sponsoring for their political mission in order to keep their interest at the expense of the poor people. We have pleanty of experiences, the constitution of Ethiopia was first written in English and then translated to Amharic, one can practically read the constitution to understand it clearly. Its not our product, we are fighting over and over on a pre-calculated document. We should start saying no to the Ethiopian constitution before trying to avoid any governmental change since it all depends on that critically written to dismantle the country into pieces. In my opinion, if we still agree to keep the constitution and change the government that’s where we make mistakes. Dear prof. Girma, for all the things you mentioned above, I believe the source is the constiution, in such a way we can get from there who is messing the country. At some point, we will see opposing forces if we ask the constitution to be at least suspended to end the conflict.

    Thank you

    • January 2, 2023 at 7:49 pm

      The good professor seems to be in real trouble when the few here who find his articles good even call for the abolition of the Constitution. How easy could it be to agree on a new constitution in a state with over 90 ethnic groups and the known troubles nowadays? Is it necessary to undertake such a mammoth undertaking at this time? How far removed has the diaspora become from the lives of the people of Ethiopia to entertain such thoughts? We have read a lot about the toxic effect of the Tigrayan Diaspora. Have we come across an equivalent of the Amharic one here?

  • October 29, 2022 at 7:47 am

    This is completely irraneous. Ethnic politics and Religion difference are very much basic. They are the deterimental factors in world alliances and state formation.
    Unless US put extraordinary sanction like it did in Venzuella, Ethiopia will not have the catastrphy u mentioned.

  • October 29, 2022 at 9:44 am

    Abiy Ahmed is very immature person with anti Amhara sentiment who clings to power but has no clue how to lead a country. All his advisors come from the previous TPLF administration. More people were killed in the last 4 years since he became PM than the entire 27 Years of TPLF. There are thousands of Political prisoners and no due process of law. The country is divided ethnically and millions of people cant vote or elect outside their own ethnic zones. The main reason of the war in northern Ethiopia is the defunct apartheid based constitition which divides the country in tribal groups. Abiy Ahmed is still a chairman of Oromo ethnic party and there is no hope to bring lasting peace and growth unless the ethnic laws are banned in Ethopia even after the war stops. The so called ethnically established regional governmentof oromo have the largest armed militia army which can strike against any opposition in the country. While inflation in the country is highest since the last 30 years and the local currency is falling daily against major currencies, Abiy Ahmed already started to build a new Palace worth 130 Million US Dollars.

    • January 2, 2023 at 8:22 pm

      A whole lot of unfounded accusations without the slightest effort to provide any evidence. The so called “immature person” has just concluded a good peace for Ethiopia and is taking care of the implementation. TPFL started the war, not the government. This is often forgotten. The government did not give in to the enormous international pressure and finally achieved the dissolution of the TPLF army and administrative structures. This is a huge step for the preservation of the state of Ethiopia. The PM Abiy Ahmed has also allied with the Amhara for this. But not with the extreme among them. The unimpeachable dealings of the militias (FANO?) have cost him a lot of international prestige – which is often overlooked by the extremists. There can also be no comparison to the political prisoners in the times of TPFL and the present government. Abiy Ahmed released many and the prisoners have their rights nowadays. The courts are independent and they decide, not the PM. And no – the main reason of the war in northern Ethiopia is not the constitition, but the old familiar power-hungry TPFL that has failed to recognise the turning of the times. PM Abiy Ahmed has only defended the interests and integrity of the state. That is what one expects from a head of state. The abolition of ethnically divided federal states is something that will take a long time. The Federal Republic of Germany also has a similar structure. However, there every citizen can live where he wants and is not discriminated against. There is a consensus on this in society. Someday, Ethiopia will also be ready for that. You concentrate on what you have in common and let what separates you fade away over time. You try to treat the others with the same respect as you want to be treated by them. You get the best man for the job, not the tribebesmen, etc.

  • October 29, 2022 at 1:10 pm

    This guy is such a pessimist. Try to relax, dude. This too shall pass. Once Abiy takes control of all of Tigray and annihilates the TPLF from existence, everything will be just fine.

  • October 29, 2022 at 3:43 pm

    The correction and healing process of Ethiopian crisis begins and ends by dismantling the Tplf ethnic fascist mafia clique in its entirety, Afterwords everything is open for discussion including the removal of the so-called Ethnic based constitution which is a Tplf political manifesto imposed on the people of Ethiopia for the last 29 years with help of the western power.

    • January 2, 2023 at 8:30 pm

      My dear Adane!

      The peace treaty contains a lot of African wisdom. It is not for nothing that it says – both sides will stop hate comments from now on. When there is peace, the enemy is no longer an enemy, but your compatriot. Protected by the law! Just like you. So let’s all stick to the treaty, that will bring peace faster and fortify it.

  • October 29, 2022 at 8:28 pm

    Tesfaye. I think you perchance forget the TPLF war on Eritrea in 1998-2000 in your calculations.
    Perhaps it was before you are borned.


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