By Andréia Verdélio
The financial market forecast for the National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considered the country’s official inflation rate, rose from 5.88 percent to 5.91 percent for this year, according to Focus Bulletin published today (Nov. 28), a survey released weekly by the Central Bank (BC) about the expectations of financial institutions for the main economic indicators.
For 2023, the inflation projection stands at 5.02 percent, and for 2024 and 2025, at 3.5 percent and 3 percent, respectively.
The forecast for 2022 is above the ceiling of the inflation target that should be pursued by the Central Bank. The target – which is defined by the National Monetary Council – stands at 3.5 percent for this year, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points up or down. In other words, the lower limit is 2 percent and the upper limit is 5 percent.
Similarly, the market’s projection for inflation in 2023 is also above the expected ceiling. For 2023 and 2024, the fixed targets are 3.25 percent and 3 percent, respectively, also with tolerance intervals of 1.5 percentage points. That is, for 2023 the limits are 1.75 percent and 4.75 percent.