Positivity Peaks At The Japan–China Summit – Analysis
By Haruka Satake
Addressing challenges related to North Korea remains a shared concern for both Japan and China and a critical security issue in East Asia. Japan and China’s efforts to strengthen diplomatic and strategic engagement are particularly vital as they navigate complex regional security challenges, including North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and the broader implications for East Asian stability.
During the meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on 16 November 2024, Xi clarified his concern about North Korea, stating ‘China cannot tolerate conflict and chaos in the Korean Peninsula and will not sit by and watch China’s strategic security and core interests being threatened’. Though Xi did not explicitly name North Korea or Russia, the reference to conflict on the Korean Peninsula can be seen as a concern about the possibility of problems between North Korea and Russia.
While the North Korean issue was not discussed at the Japan–China summit in Peru on 15 November 2024, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Xi, agreed to continue to promote their ‘strategic mutually beneficial relationship’. Established in 2008, this framework aims to nurture a stable and progressive bilateral relationship by respecting mutual interests and addressing common challenges through cooperation. This relationship also highlights a shared emphasis on promoting peace and prosperity in Asia and the broader international community.
Reflecting this mutual focus, both sides expressed optimism for the future of Japan–China relations at the summit. Some Japanese media outlets underscored President Xi’s high expectations for Ishiba, with one even citing a Chinese government official who described the meeting as ‘the most favourable of any meeting with a Japanese leader in recent years’. This positive depiction can be attributed to two notable aspects of the summit.
The first sign of improving Japan–China relations during the summit was the behaviour of the two leaders. Both Prime Minister Ishiba and President Xi appeared conciliatory in their public interactions. Xi’s cordial approach reflects China’s shift to smile diplomacy instead of its hard-line wolf warrior approach of the past.
The second sign was Xi’s reference during the summit to Japan’s former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, who was Ishiba’s political mentor and, as prime minister, achieved the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Japan and China in 1972. A Japanese Foreign Ministry official revealed that President Xi quoted Tanaka’s words ‘if I reflect and correct myself, I will move forward even against ten million opponents’. The Japanese official interpreted this as Xi expressing hope for improved Japan–China relations despite current domestic challenges, drawing parallels to Tanaka’s efforts.
With China showing signs of openness toward fostering a more constructive relationship with Japan, this is a critical moment for Japan to solidify cooperation on shared security concerns, particularly the North Korean nuclear threat. To effectively counter the expansion of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities, both nations must align their strategic interests and develop a unified approach to Pyongyang’s provocations.
Japan and China can explore practical steps to jointly induce North Korea to reduce its nuclear ambitions through a conciliatory approach. For instance, Japan could advocate for China to leverage its influence to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table. Japan could also emphasise its own contributions to regional stability through enhanced defence cooperation with the United States and South Korea while signalling its readiness to work collaboratively with China. But Japan must be cautious that advertising its defence capabilities and cooperation could inadvertently push North Korea further toward expanding its nuclear arsenal.
To mitigate this risk, Japan should pursue simultaneous engagement with China and efforts toward demilitarisation. Establishing forums and dialogues at the Track 1.5 and Track 2 diplomatic levels involving Japan, South Korea, the United States and China could help foster discussions on demilitarisation and build trust among stakeholders. In the long term, these efforts could aim to include North Korea in a broader group committed to non-military solutions, gradually reducing tensions and enhancing regional stability.
In these unstable times, an approach centred on dialogue and cooperation rather than confrontation is crucial. Both Japan and China — as major players in the Asia Pacific region — share a responsibility to contribute to the broader peace and prosperity of the East Asia region and the international community. By fostering mutual trust and working together to resolve pressing security issues like the North Korean nuclear threat, Japan and China have an opportunity to set a powerful example of what can be achieved through strategic cooperation, even amid complex and competing national interests.
- About the author: Haruka Satake is a Policy Research Fellow at the Edwin O Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Washington, DC.
- Source: This article was published by East Asia Forum