Trump 2.0 And ASEAN: Balancing Challenges And Opportunities In A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape – Analysis

The return of Donald Trump to the presidency could significantly alter the dynamics of Southeast Asia, presenting ASEAN with a complex array of challenges and opportunities. As a cornerstone of regional integration and stability, ASEAN plays a crucial role in the Indo-Pacific geopolitical landscape.

Trump’s previous presidency was characterized by dramatic shifts in U.S. foreign policy, defined by a transactional approach to diplomacy and an “America First” agenda. Suppose this policy orientation resurfaces in a second Trump term. In that case, it will challenge ASEAN’s ability to maintain cohesion amidst growing tensions over the South China Sea, North Korea’s evolving role in global conflicts, and the intensification of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

At the same time, this situation offers ASEAN a chance to reinforce its strategic autonomy, strengthen economic partnerships, and position itself as a mediator in global conflicts. This essay explores the potential impacts of Trump’s return to ASEAN, focusing on critical issues such as the South China Sea disputes, North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war, renewed U.S.-North Korea diplomacy, and ASEAN’s positioning about the Quad. 

The South China Sea, a vital route for global trade and resource extraction, remains a contentious flashpoint. China’s expansive claims, represented by the “nine-dash line,” have angered several ASEAN members, including Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, all of which also hold competing territorial claims. During Trump’s first term, the U.S. adopted a more assertive stance in the South China Sea, conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) and strengthening ties with key ASEAN claimants.

These actions were presented as a challenge to China’s militarization of the region, but they risked polarizing ASEAN, which values neutrality and consensus. A Trump 2.0 presidency is likely to heighten these tensions, as his administration may further militarize U.S. policy in the region. While this could support some ASEAN states in opposing China, it might also worsen divisions within the bloc, particularly among countries like Cambodia and Laos, which are aligned more closely with Beijing. The unity of ASEAN, a fundamental principle of its effectiveness, would be put to the test under these circumstances. 

The North Korea issue adds another dimension of complexity. Recent reports indicate that North Korea is providing troop support to Russia in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, signalling Pyongyang’s increasing alignment with anti-Western powers. These developments pose challenges to ASEAN’s traditional diplomatic engagement with North Korea, which has relied on cautious dialogue efforts to prevent escalation. Trump’s previous strategy toward North Korea, highlighted by high-profile summits with Kim Jong-un in Singapore and Hanoi, was unconventional but produced mixed outcomes.

While these meetings momentarily reduced tensions, they failed to yield substantial denuclearization agreements. In a Trump 2.0 presidency, the possibility of renewed diplomacy with Kim could engage ASEAN in a mediating role, capitalizing on its reputation for neutrality. Hosting another U.S.-North Korea summit within ASEAN could enhance the bloc’s diplomatic profile but might also draw criticism if such talks result in minimal progress or undermine global norms against authoritarian regimes.

Furthermore, the rise of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), an informal alliance comprising the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, complicates matters. The Quad’s increasing focus on Indo-Pacific security raises concerns that ASEAN’s centrality could be diminished in regional diplomacy. Under Trump, the Quad was revitalized as a means to counterbalance China’s growing influence, and a second Trump term could lead to its further institutionalization. Although Quad initiatives related to infrastructure, investment, and disaster relief align with ASEAN’s goals, their strategic implications risk alienating ASEAN states that prefer not to take sides in great power rivalries. The Quad’s heightened visibility may also deepen existing divisions within ASEAN as members navigate their relationships with both the Quad and China. To maintain ASEAN’s centrality in this evolving security architecture, the bloc will need to engage in skilful diplomacy and clearly articulate its vision for the region.

Despite these challenges, Trump’s return could provide opportunities for ASEAN to enhance its economic and strategic autonomy. His transactional approach to trade and investment might facilitate bilateral agreements tailored to ASEAN economies. For instance, revisiting the U.S.-ASEAN Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) or initiating targeted infrastructure investments to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative could strengthen economic ties. Additionally, ASEAN’s commitment to multilateralism and non-alignment positions it as a distinctive partner for the U.S., capable of mediating conflicts and fostering inclusive growth. Trump’s unpredictability could, paradoxically, empower ASEAN to assert its role as a stabilizing force amid global uncertainty. However, ASEAN must manoeuvre these dynamics carefully to avoid being drawn into divisive conflicts. 

The South China Sea will continue to be a litmus test for ASEAN’s capacity to uphold its principles of neutrality and consensus. Additionally, North Korea’s alignment with Russia highlights the necessity for ASEAN to strengthen its diplomatic mechanisms to address global conflicts that increasingly intersect with its region. Moreover, ASEAN needs to engage with the Quad in a manner that preserves its centrality in the Indo-Pacific while deriving tangible benefits from Quad-led initiatives. Achieving this balance will require unity among ASEAN members, a challenge given their diverse strategic priorities and economic dependencies. 

In conclusion, a Trump 2.0 presidency would undoubtedly heighten the stakes for ASEAN as it navigates an increasingly polarized and complex geopolitical landscape. From managing tensions in the South China Sea to engaging in renewed U.S.-North Korea diplomacy and adapting to the Quad’s expanded role, ASEAN faces significant tests of its unity and relevance. To address these challenges, ASEAN should prioritize strengthening its diplomatic and economic frameworks, fostering regional resilience, and upholding its centrality in the Indo-Pacific order. By doing so, it can turn potential disruptions into opportunities for greater integration and influence. The dynamic interplay of challenges and opportunities under Trump 2.0 will ultimately shape ASEAN’s trajectory in the 21st century, underscoring the need for strategic foresight and collective action.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

References

• Bateman, Sam. “The South China Sea: The Importance of Regional Cooperation.” The Diplomat, 2022.
• Chang, Andray Abraham. “North Korea’s Support for Russia: Strategic Implications.” Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2023.
• Green, Michael J. By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783. New York: Columbia University Press, 2017.
• Medcalf, Rory. Indo-Pacific Empire: China, America and the Contest for the World’s Pivotal Region. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2020.