NATO’s Revival And Existence – OpEd

The Cold War was over with the Warsaw Pact dissolved, the Soviet Union having broken and left with a weakened Russia. However, the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) one of the most visible symbols of the cold war continued to exist. NATO has been not merely the largest military alliance bloc but also a community of shared values of the European region for a perceived common threat.

The academia had visioned that the alliance would dissolve, because the Soviet threat had largely disappeared. Yes, it was weakening with the popular Trump bashing of how he has weakened NATO, he did manage to ensure that members did their part, at least in partial wake up calls, where Trump was right in denouncing the members who have been benefitting from US securing their defence needs. Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge if the US withdraws from the commitment. 

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine was a watershed moment for NATO. NATO has delivered an estimated 150 billion euros worth of aid to Ukraine, as well as significant military equipment and training, since the war began. Additionally, 25 member states are now among the 37 countries contributing to Ukraine to fight against Russia for its survival. Yet, while NATO has seemingly unified in the face of the Russian invasion, comparisons of support to Ukraine imply that a diverging threat perception of Russia remains between NATO’s eastern and western members.

NATO must generate a threat perception for its continued existence. It has been looking for one and it instigated Russia to attack Ukraine under “Special Military Operation” to avoid the term “Invasion or War.”

The 75th anniversary of NATO celebrations in Washington created new threat perceptions on the relevance of NATO and its future. The world’s oldest military pact remains the biggest and continues to provide the reach of security assurances and deterrence. 

Zelensky got what he wanted the most, a united NATO with continuous pledges of military aid and support that will sustain Ukraine’s war efforts to keep Russia away. US$43.28 billion in military aid within the next year.

Washington NATO Summit

The 75th anniversary Summit of NATO accused China to be supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and posing systemic challenges to European security. China and Russia are the emerging global threats. President Biden said, “Every inch of NATO territory will be defended together”.

NATO members are gradually accepting the hard reality of preparing for a reduced US funding and support, while trying to come up with their own combined defence against both China and Russia. So far it has been the Russian threat, but the Washington NATO Summit has heightened the threat perception by adding China. All NATO members have pledged to expand their industrial bases and to develop plans for defense production. 

NATO asked China to cease all material support to Russia’s defence industrial base towards Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. It also accused China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal with more warheads. With Beijing expanding more readily with Russia outside of its traditional sphere of influence, with the recent joint exercises with Moscow in South China Sea and the fly by near the border in Alaska, NATO and Washington grew exceedingly wary.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that China is helping fuel “the biggest security threat… since the end of the Cold War” for Europe and is helping Russia “sustain the war” in Ukraine. Blinken’s remarks have recently found some resonance within Europe. According to Bloomberg, some European officials said “Chinese and Russian companies are developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine.

At the 2024 Washington Summit, Allies agreed a new NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge, which will strengthen transatlantic defence industrial cooperation and help Allies restock their arsenals while continuing to send military aid to Ukraine.

US-NATO members have affirmed their commitment to supporting the war-torn country in ‘building a force capable of defeating Russian aggression today and deterring it in the future’. The US and its allies have announced that they intend to provide a minimum baseline funding of 40 billion euros in military aid within the next year, adding that their alliance will continue to back Ukraine ‘on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership’. 

One strategic move from the summit includes the pushing the inclusion of Ukraine into NATO on the back burner for the time to avoid a Russian retaliation. US has identified Beijing as its No 1 threat, but for the NATO Russia remains the biggest security challenge.

The New Threat to South China Sea 

Forty per cent of Europe’s trade passes through the South China Sea which is threatened by Chinese expansion. Indo Pacific players especially Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand have been toying with the idea of joining NATO and have been attended its summit since 2022. 

The US is keen on checking the ambitions of Russia and China to check their combined expanding might. The NATO summit has allowed the US and its European and Indo-Pacific allies to push back against China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. Without the US, NATO will not venture into the Indo Pacific region. Infact it is the US who needs NATO to fight along. European countries are not as keen to take on China as the US.

Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) Record Earnings

The hard Truth, the American US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is promoting pursuing ‘War for Profit’ while speaking in a joint Press Conference with Britain Foreign Secretary: “… 90 percent of the security assistance we provided has actually been spent here in the US with our MIC manufacturers for production, and that’s produced more American jobs, more growth in our own economy US war aid to Ukraine a ‘Win-Win’ that we need to continue.”

The outgoing NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg: “NATO stands with Ukraine.” He has been instrumental in garnering and coordinating support including weapons, ammunition, and training. “Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO…Weapons Are – In Fact – The Way to Peace… We need to be prepared for the long term…There is absolutely the possibility that this war will drag on and last for months and years.” 

Five of the top US and European defense contractors have been making exuberant profits since the war started three years back. The first two years of war profits : Rheinmetall-315%,Europe’s BAE Systems- 105%, Thales-59%, Lockheed Martin (LMT) -10%, and Northrop Grumman (NOC) –18%  in the US.  Governments have donated ammunition, tanks, and fighter jets to Ukraine, are replenishing their own depleted stockpiles, and have committed billions more to their defense budgets. 

Russia-China-North Korea need to accept the blame of NATO existence and expansion because of the threat to territorial and maritime boundaries of their neighbours. AUKUS and the QUAD are the newly created alliances to counter the China designs into the Indo Pacific region. The idea of NATO opening a liaison office in Tokyo over the years has since been shed fearing a backlash from China. Threats provide a reason for joint assured collective committed defence and security arrangements.

Prime Minister Modi has been trying to convince the world leaders that “It is Era of No War!” But there is no peace around the world. With continued threats by some of the nations on their immediate neighbours, this attitude will make NATO and the New alliances continue surviving. Threat perceptions will be created or executed so that the Military-Industrial Complexes continue to generate profits promoting ‘Wars for Profit.’