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US Making Progress In Diplomatic Struggle With China Over South China Sea – Analysis

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Many policy makers and analysts would agree that there is a surging soft and hard power struggle between China and the U.S. for dominance in the South China Sea and Southeast Asia.  I argue elsewhere that China has made significant inroads in what was long a region of US soft power dominance. https://thediplomat.com/2017/08/is-america-losing-the-soft-power-contest-in-southeast-asia/ But the U.S. is making some progress in regaining lost ground.

Soft power is the capability to use economic or cultural influence to shape the preferences of other.  Hard power is the use of a coercive approach to international relations. Of course hard power usually matters more in the end but the two types overlap and integrate in kind and effect to become ‘diplomacy’.   In a clever reversal of Clausewitz’ famous dictum https://thediplomat.com/2014/11/everything-you-know-about-clausewitz-is-wrong/, China’s first Premier Zhou Enlai once quipped “All diplomacy is a continuation of war with other means.”  https://www.cnet.com/forums/discussions/all-diplomacy-is-the-continuation-of-war-by-other-means-598308/ In the particular situation of the South China Sea and Southeast Asia, soft power may ‘win’ the contest without hard power coming into play– at least explicitly.  The U.S. is clearly the superior military power—overall –and in the South China Sea, although China is eroding the US advantage there.  But China seems to be gaining the soft power advantage by virtue of its geographic position as a permanent part of Asia and its burgeoning economic largesse.

The U.S. has consistently and strenuously argued to its allies, friends and any others that will listen that China wants hegemony in the South China Sea and that in its pursuit is “militarizing” the features it occupies; bullying its rival claimants; threatening freedom of navigation; violating, as well as trying to revise the applicable international law and order; and thus generating instability.

China has its own narrative. It counters that it is only exercising its right to defend its territory –just as other claimants are doing; that it is not threatening and will not threaten commercial freedom of navigation; that it is willing to negotiate disputes bilaterally as agreed in the 2002  ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea http://asean.org/?static_post=declaration-on-the-conduct-of-parties-in-the-south-china-sea-2 ; and to enter into provisional arrangements of a practical nature to harvest resources in the disputed areas (as called for in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea-UNCLOS); that it is the U.S.—an outsider  and non-party to UNCLOS-–that is creating instability with its provocative military presence, intelligence probes, and Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs); and that it wants to continue its hegemony in the region –and specifically the South China Sea.

China’s soft power campaign has made progress in winning some ASEAN nations to its side on these issues– like Cambodia, Laos and perhaps Myanmar – – and has made surprising inroads with US allies Thailand and the Philippines.  It has caused others like Brunei, Malaysia and even US strategic partner Singapore to hedge and waffle.  Vietnam is clearly in the U.S. camp, and the de facto leader of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, seems to be leaning more that way.

Now other ‘outside’ nations are beginning to publicly back the U.S. — at least regarding “freedom of navigation”.  Heretofore US allies Australia, France, Japan, New Zealand and the UK had demurred –even under considerable US pressure– to join its FONOPs in the South China Sea or to at least undertake some themselves.  But at June’s major Asian security gathering, the Shangri-la Dialogue, France and the U.K.  announced that they would soon be conducting their own freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea. https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2018/06/south-china-sea-power These were executed.  But it is unclear as to whether they emulated the U.S. FONOPs by challenging China’s requirement to have permission to sail within 12 nautical miles of its occupied features.  Judging from China’s muted reaction, they may not have done so.  Nevertheless, Gavin Williamson, the UK Defense Secretary said that the U.K. intended to send the “strongest of signals” on the importance of freedom of navigation.   https://www.pressreader.com/philippines/philippine-daily-inquirer/20180605/281543701612513  He made this announcement from a UK frigate docked in Singapore, a day after US Defense Secretary James Mattis accused China of “intimidation and coercion” – the latter a possible violation of the UN Charter.  https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/01/world/asia/mattis-south-china-sea.html.

Australia has become more outspoken in support of the U.S. position on freedom of navigation.  In April, after three Australian warships were queried by Chinese warships in the South China Sea, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull asserted the Australian navy’s right there.  However the details of the incident are unclear as to whether the Australian warships challenged China’s claims. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/australia-asserts-right-to-south-china-sea-passage

Even New Zealand, an erstwhile US ally, has publicly and explicitly stated that it believes China poses a threat in the South China Sea to the international community.  This is significant because New Zealand’s leaders had previously been careful not to specify China as a threat when speaking about the South China Sea dispute. Predictably, China expressed anger over the statement.  https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/85234847/China-berates-NZ-over-South-China-Sea-stance

Japan’s Prime Minister Shintaro Abe envisions a ‘free and open’ Indo Pacific linking Japan, Australia, India and the U.S. in an effort to uphold the rule of law – – especially freedom of navigation. Translating words to action, it announced that it will soon send a large helicopter carrier to the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.

But what about other claimants in the South China Sea?

Malaysia, under former Prime Minister Najib Razak, had been relatively quiet on the South China Sea issues, even showing tolerance towards China’s behavior there.  But his successor, Mahathir Mohammad seems less favorably inclined toward China perhaps providing an opening for the U.S.

A major ‘victory’ for China was the Philippines’ decision to put in abeyance the international arbitration decision in its favor against China, and to shift its foreign policy to a more neutral position between China and the U.S.  But the government is facing an increasingly popular domestic movement against its ‘soft’ policies toward China – – and implicitly, its turning away from the U.S. http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2018/07/14/SWS-philippines-south-china-sea-duterte.html An anonymous high ranking Philippines military official said of the upcoming first-ever China -ASEAN maritime exercises this year in the South China Sea, “The drills are intended to be part of confidence-building measures.  But at the tone the nations are speaking now, I don’t think it’s a good idea” [to hold the exercises] . http://globalnation.inquirer.net/167574/hope-skepticism-first-ever-asean-china-maritime-drills-year. This may favor the U.S. in its contest with China for the South China Sea.

Vietnam, a particularly vociferous rival claimant in the South China Sea, has been particularly outspoken in welcoming the deployment of the U.S. Navy. Indeed, Vietnam will host the first visit of a US aircraft carrier battle group later this year.

The political use of the US hosted Rim of the Pacific exercises has also advanced the U.S. position.  With its very public exclusion of China and the continued participation of six ASEAN countries in the largest multilateral military maritime maneuvers, the U.S. can claim they are demonstrating “passive support” for the U.S. position. https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2154835/us-using-rimpac-woo-asean-and-counter-its-move

So although China has recently been winning the diplomatic ‘war’ in the South China Sea, the U.S. is making some progress in rebuilding its eroded soft power.  Stay tuned for the next chapter in this seminal struggle.

*Mark J. Valencia, Adjunct Senior Scholar, National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China

This piece first appeared in the Diplomat.  https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/us-makes-up-some-lost-diplomatic-ground-over-south-china-sea/


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