Turkish Energy Markets: 2025 Forecasts – OpEd
Turkey’s energy sector has witnessed remarkable growth as of 2024. According to data released by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey’s installed energy capacity reached 115,000 MW by the end of November 2024. This reflects the continuous expansion and diversification of the country’s energy production capabilities.
Distribution of Resources and Energy Plans
As per the National Energy Plan, the distribution of installed capacity by source as of July 2024 is as follows:
- Hydropower: 28.5%
- Natural gas: 21.9%
- Coal: 19.3%
- Wind: 10.9%
- Solar: 15.6%
- Geothermal: 1.5%
- Other sources: 2.4%
This distribution underscores the increasing reliance on renewable energy sources while fossil fuels, although declining, still play a significant role. Additionally, landslides in the AfÅŸin-Elbistan coalfields have disrupted operations at the A and B thermal power plants, causing setbacks in coal-based energy production.
International Energy Events
One of the most significant international energy events of 2024 was the Enlit2024 energy conference and exhibition, held in Milan in November. Despite limited participation from Turkish firms, their expertise in thermal power plant construction provided valuable contributions to the event. The upcoming Enlit2025 will take place next year in Bilbao, Spain, from 18–20 November.
Meanwhile, the COP29 Climate and Environment Conference in Baku faced criticism for prioritizing fossil fuels, drawing attention to the urgent need for global energy policies to shift towards sustainability. Notably, COP30 will mark its debut in an Amazonian city, as it is set to take place in Belém, Brazil.
Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant and Energy Independence
A cornerstone of Turkey’s energy strategy, the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, holds significant potential to reduce energy dependence. However, concerns about potential security threats in the region necessitate enhanced safety measures. Moreover, delays in the procurement of critical equipment due to sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union have adversely impacted project timelines. While nuclear energy offers significant advantages, the associated risks must be carefully evaluated.
Turkey’s Natural Gas Supply and the Ukraine War
The war in Ukraine has had a direct impact on Turkey’s energy relations with Russia. With approximately 40% of Turkey’s annual natural gas demand of 56 billion cubic metres supplied by Russia, payment disruptions caused by the conflict have raised energy security concerns. This situation has underscored the necessity of exploring alternative supply routes.
Future Outlook
The forecasts for 2025 indicate that developments in the energy market will extend beyond production resources, linking directly to the following areas:
- Energy efficiency
- Energy storage systems
- Digitalisation, smart grid technologies, and artificial intelligence applications
With its dynamic and innovative structure, Turkey is poised to maintain its position as a strong regional player in energy markets. Increased investments in renewable energy and the acceleration of digital transformation will further strengthen the country’s standing on the international energy stage.
