While Kremlin Focuses On Ukraine, Rest Of Post-Soviet Space ‘Disappearing Before Our Eyes’ – OpEd
By Paul Goble
The Putin regime’s obsessive focus on Ukraine is not only isolating Russia from the West but it is reducing Moscow’s influence across the former Soviet space, the SytoSokrat telegram channel says. Indeed, it can be said that Moscow’s expanded invasion of Ukraine has “destroyed what was left of Russian influence in the near abroad.
The influential channel which is directed at Russia’s security elite says that “immediately, in several places, the Russian positions have gone to hell,” a conclusion justified by the fact in that in place after place, Moscow has been forced to pull back or even worse forced to pull back (t.me/sytosokrata/892 reposted at charter97.org/ru/news/2024/4/29/593337/).
The situation in the Caucasus is especially bad and especially instructive, the telegram channel continues. Moscow is “shamefully” pulling back there. “For the sake of implementing an ephemeral geopolitical project of a southern corridor to Iran, Moscow has treacherously abandoned Armenia.”
“The GRU and the FSB tried to overthrow the Pashinyan government by trying to implement a pro-Kremlin color revolution,” SytoSokrat says; but for their troubles, they got “hit in the teeth. As a result, the Armenian government not wanting to deal with Putin’s cum began to redirect its foreign policy toward the West.”
And despite Kremlin hopes, “the Azerbaijanis did not become allies for the Russians. They see their future in the Turkic world and welcome with stormy applause the withdrawal of the Russian contingent from Karabakh.” Baku shares with Turkey a vision of a Turkish world, which represents “a colossal threat to the territorial integrity of Russia” with its Turkic units.
Moscow also made the situation for itself worse in Georgia. There, “the Russian special services at the direction of Patrushev are pushing through a foreign agents law” and thereby generating “a powerful anti-Moscow popular movement” that won’t let Tbilisi engage in any rapprochement with the Russian Federation.
Meanwhile, “Putin’s special services have become more active in the direction of Moldova” but with no more promise of success and an increasing likelihood of failure. Moscow orchestrated a meeting of Moldovan opposition figures and stimulated Gagauz succession, all of which are likely to do nothing more than push Chisinau into the hands of the West.
During the war in Ukraine the RF were quite ‘light’ in their antagonism towards Odessa but that now seems to have altered appreciatively. I am beginning to feel that this increase of pressure is the RF have now made a radical change of policy. I believe that they are attempting to annex the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine and the result of that action would establish a Russian lake. This would of course close this sea to Ukrainian and Western shipping completely. They would in fact have a ‘private’ lake at their disposal.