Paris Mayoral Race Heats Up As Right Eyes End To Socialist Rule

By Laurent Geslin

(EurActiv) — With the French municipal elections just weeks away, the race for Paris has already begun – and the right is hoping to bring the Socialist Party’s 25-year grip on the French capital to an end in March.

Outgoing socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo, who has chosen not to seek a third six-year term, leaves behind a mixed record. Her tenure is credited with a sharp expansion of social housing – now accounting for 25% of the city’s housing stock – the rapid pedestrianisation of large swathes of Paris, and the rollout of 500 km of bicycle lanes over the past decade.

Recent figures from Airparif, an independent body monitoring air quality in the Paris region, showthat levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have fallen by 55% since 2015.

But the assertive policies pursued under Hidalgo, who has been mayor since 2014, have also fuelled a surge in the city’s debt, which has risen from €4 billion to €10 billion over ten years.

On 15 and 22 March, Parisian voters will take part in two ballots: one to elect the City Council, which will appoint the next mayor of the capital, and the other to elect the councils of the arrondissements. They will then elect the mayors of Paris’ 20 arrondissements.

Who could become the next mayor of Paris? 

Rachida Dati, the right-wing mayor of Paris’ affluent 7th arrondissement and France’s minister of culture, is polling at just over 30%. For her, the priority must be to rein in spending: Her programme centres on cutting City Hall’s running costs and reducing subsidies for associations, while bolstering “security and cleanliness”.

Nominated by the right-wing party Les Républicains (LR), Dati has also secured the backing of centrists close to former Prime Minister François Bayrou. Still, she will face competition from a rival centre-right ticket led by former MP Pierre-Yves Bournazel, who is backed by President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party.

But even though Dati enjoys far greater media exposure than her rivals, ongoing legal proceedings overshadow her campaign. She is due to stand trial next September on corruption and influence-peddling charges, accused of receiving payments for lobbying on behalf of Renault–Nissan while serving as an MEP between 2009 and 2019.

The court case is a major issue in Paris, where the electorate is dominated by “senior executives and intellectual professionals” who are “highly informed,” said political scientist Pascal Perrineau, who specialises in electoral sociology. “Legal affairs create doubt and blur a candidate’s image,” he added, arguing that Dati’s only real chance would be a divided left in the second round.

The left in talks

The performance of the left will largely depend on the ability of the socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire – Hidalgo’s former first deputy – to unite the different factions. He already has the backing of the Communist Party and the Greens. The latter account for more than 10% of Parisian voters.

The Greens have agreed to rally behind Grégoire in the first round of voting in exchange for the mayor’s office of the 11th arrondissement, an area in the east-central part of Paris considered an easy win for the left.

An agreement on a “joint list” has been reached with the Socialist Party, Green candidate David Belliard announced on 17 December. A few days earlier, he had told Euractiv that his priority was to keep working-class residents in the capital, rather than see them pushed out to the suburbs.

Relations between the socialists and hard-left candidate Sophia Chikirou of La France Insoumise (LFI) have meanwhile broken down. Grégoire’s camp insists no deal is possible in either round.

Chikirou’s allies say LFI wants a clean break with the outgoing majority, accusing it of having “privatised” Paris for business and tourism. But they have left the door open to a broader left alliance in the second round.

“If the Parti Socialiste thinks it can win Paris without Insoumise’s votes, it’s shooting itself in the foot,” said a campaign aide of Chikirou, noting that the LFI candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon won 30% of the vote in Paris during the 2022 presidential election, while the party’s MEP Manon Aubry secured 17% in the 2024 European elections.

A test before the presidential election

While municipal elections follow different dynamics than national ones, the outcome next March will offer early clues about the alliances likely to emerge ahead of the 2027 presidential race.

In mid-December, Le Journal du Dimanche, a weekly owned by conservative media tycoon Vincent Bolloré, reported that far-right MEP Sarah Knafo could also enter the mayoral race, and that she was not ruling out an alliance with Dati.

Last October, LR leader Bruno Retailleau urged voters to shun the left in the second round of a parliamentary by-election, in which a socialist candidate faced off against a far-right National Rally ally.

Dati’s close allies insist any alliance with the far right is out of the question. But the issue would resurface if either Knafo or RN MEP Thierry Mariani crossed the 10% threshold needed to qualify for the second round.

In early December, the right-wing candidate for the Marseille mayoralty, Martine Vassal, left the door ajar to such an alliance. But her nebulous comments could refer to much of France’s political landscape.

“We’ll see when the time comes,” Vassal said.