LUKOIL refinery. Photo Credit: LUKOIL

Russia's LUKOIL refinery. Photo Credit: LUKOIL
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Russia Energy Profile: Sanctions Shift Trade To Asia – Analysis

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Russia was the world’s second-highest dry natural gas producer and exporter, the third-highest crude oil and condensate producer, and the third-highest coal exporter in 2022.1

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a number of countries imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeted measures on Russia’s energy sector.2 In May 2023, G7 countries reaffirmed previously set price caps and export bans on oil and petroleum products from Russia. In December 2023, the EU adopted a 12th package of restrictions that implemented compliance measures intended to limit the ability to circumvent capped oil prices.3

Sanctions related to the invasion of Ukraine expedited a shift in Russian trade toward Asia, relying more heavily on seaborne shipments because of limited eastbound rail and pipeline infrastructure. Seaborne shipments of crude oil and condensate to Asia increased 57% year over year in 2023, and petroleum products increased 80%. Total seaborne coal shipments increased by 18% year over year from January to April 2023.4

The Russian government is prioritizing liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure development to better reach markets not readily accessible via pipeline, despite limited access to technology and financing as a result of sanctions. Russia’s piped natural gas exports decreased 48% year over year in 2022. During the same period, Russia’s LNG exports increased over 10%, followed by a 2% year over year decrease in 2023.5

Petroleum and other liquids

Russia’s proved oil reserves were 80 billion barrels as of January 1, 2024.6

Russia produced nearly 10.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in total liquid fuels in 2023, a 2% decrease from 2022. Rosneft is Russia’s largest oil producer and by-capacity refiner, accounting for 33% of annual production and 40% of refining capacity in 2023.7

Russia’s total liquid fuels consumption decreased 2% from 3.7 million b/d in 2021 to 3.6 million b/d in 2022.8 In September 2023, Russia briefly banned gasoline and diesel exports to address domestic fuel shortages caused by refinery maintenance, infrastructure delays, and higher prices because of a weakened ruble.9 A subsequent six-month ban on gasoline exports began in March 2024.10

In early 2023, as an OPEC+ participant, Russia set crude oil production for 2024 at 9.949 million b/d. In April 2023, Russia agreed to an additional voluntary cut of 500,000 b/d to 9.449 million b/d for the same period (2024). In March 2024, Russia announced a further voluntary production cut to 8.978 million b/d for the second quarter of 2024.11

Western Siberia accounted for 87% of Russia’s crude oil and condensate production in 2023, down from 90% in 2019, according to Rystad Energy data. During this same period, the proportion of Russia’s production from Eastern Siberia and Russia’s Far East increased from 5% to 9% and declined for all other regions, reflecting an overall shift in Russia’s energy trade and investment toward Asia.12

Russia produces eight main grades of crude oil. Urals is its major crude oil export, a medium-sour crude oil produced mainly in Western Siberia and Russia’s Volga-Urals region.13 Historically, Urals was the main crude oil grade exported via pipelines from Baltic and Black Sea ports to Western markets, but sanctions have shifted the trade and pricing of Urals eastward.14

Transneft, the world’s largest pipeline company, transports more than 85% of oil produced in Russia. The state-owned firm owns and operates nearly 43,000 miles of oil and natural gas pipelines in Russia, Asia, Europe, and Eurasia.15

Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project began construction in 2022. The project plans include drilling 12,000 production wells by 2038 on the Taymyr Peninsula, including in the Vankor and Payakha oil fields.16 As of November 2023, Rosneft Oil reportedly completed 124 miles of the project’s 478-mile Vankor-Paykha-Bukhta Sever oil pipeline. Once completed, the pipeline will deliver oil to an Arctic oil terminal at the Bukhta Sever port, which would be Russia’s largest oil terminal when at full capacity (approximately 2.3 million b/d).17

The Russian government intends to increase refinery yield of light petroleum products to 70% by 2035 and to maintain increasing domestic refining capacity and complexity as a long-term initiative.18 Rosneft accounts for 40% of Russia’s refining capacity and reported a light petroleum product yield of 58.6% in 2023.19 Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest-capacity refining company, reported a light petroleum product yield of 71.2% in 2022.20

Gazprom Neft, the oil subsidiary of Gazprom and Russia’s second-largest oil producer and third-largest refiner by capacity, began commissioning work on completed upgrades to its Omsk refinery in August 2023. The Omsk refinery supports Russia’s domestic market with an installed refining capacity of over 441,000 b/d of crude oil and a light petroleum product yield of 80%. Gazprom Russia’s second-largest oil producer and third-largest refiner by capacity.21

Russia had a number of refinery outages in the first quarter of 2024, many because of reported drone strikes, maintenance or technical issues, and possible impacts of Ukraine-related sanctions.22 Mid-month refinery runs in January and February of 2024 were 5.50 million b/d and 5.44 million b/d lower than in December 2023 (5.65 million b/d), respectively, even though declines usually occur in spring because of seasonal maintenance.23

Transneft’s 311-mile Yug, or South, pipeline system delivers petroleum products to the Black Sea port of Novorossysk. The project postponed its third stage of development in November 2023, which would have connected the system to refineries in Samara and increased capacity from about 120,000 b/d to 221,000 b/d. Transneft began delivering diesel fuel via the pipeline in 2017 and, in 2018, completed a project for the pipeline to begin receiving more diesel fuel by rail.24 The company’s 656-mile Sever, or North, pipeline system launched in 2008, has 532,000 b/d of capacity, and delivers petroleum products to the Baltic Sea at Primorsk.25

Natural gas

Russia’s proved natural gas reserves were 1,688 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of January 1, 2024, the largest in the world.26 Gazprom, Russia’s largest and state-owned natural gas company, holds over 70% of the country’s natural gas reserves.27

In 2022, 21.8 Tcf of dry natural gas was produced in Russia, a 12% decrease year over year (from 24.8 Tcf in 2021).28 Dry natural gas consumption in Russia increased 2% in 2022, from 16.3 Tcf in 2021 to 16.7 Tcf, the most since 2018 .29

Russia flares the most natural gas, released from upstream oil and gas fields, of any country in the world. In 2022, 901 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas was flared, and 898 Bcf was flared in 2021 (about 5.5% of consumption).30

The Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area, in the northern areas of Russia’s West Siberian Plain, accounts for 90% of the country’s natural gas production and 78% of its natural gas reserves.31

Russia’s Urengoy and Yamburg fields, the world’s second- and third-largest natural gas fields, have an estimated 385 Tcf and 290 Tcf in respective reserves. Additional large natural gas fields are located in the same region as Urengoy and Yamburg, east of the Gulf of Ob along the Arctic Circle in Western Siberia, including Bovanenkovo (173 Tcf) and Zapolyarnoye (124 Tcf).32

Novatek’s Gas Condensate Fractionation and Transshipment Complex in Ust-Luga, near St. Petersburg, launched a new hydrocracking unit in June 2023 to increase the refinery’s yield of light petroleum products. The complex processes about 162,000 b/d of natural gas condensate.33

Novatek completed its Yamal LNG project in late 2018, five years after the final investment decision was made in December 2013. In 2021, Novatek approved Yamal LNG to operate at 120% of nameplate capacity for three of its four trains, increasing operating capacity to 994 billion cubic feet per year.35

Two major LNG projects, Arctic LNG 2 and Ust-Luga, received final investment decisions in 2019. Each project is under construction and delayed because of Ukraine-related sanctions.36 Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project briefly started production at the first of three trains in late 2023, before suspending production in April 2024.37

Coal

Russia held the world’s second-largest coal reserves in 2022, after the United States, estimated at 179 billion short tons.38

In Russia, 509 million short tons of coal were produced in 2022, a 6% increase year over year from 480 million short tons in 2021.39

Russia produces the third-most metallurgical coal in the world, after China and Australia. In 2021, 125 million short tons were produced in Russia, a 15% increase from 108 million short tons in 2021.40 Western Siberia is one of seven global regions that produce high-quality metallurgical coal. (The other six regions are the eastern United States, eastern Australia, and western Canada, China, Mozambique, and Mongolia.)41

Coal production in Russia is centered in the Kuznetsk Basin, or Kuzbass region, in Western Siberia and is equidistant to Baltic Sea, Black Sea, and Pacific ports. The region accounts for over half of coal production in Russia, and all Western Siberia accounts for nearly 80% of total coal production in Russia.42

Coal consumption in Russia was 291 million short tons in 2022, a 7% increase from 273 million short tons in 2021. Metallurgical coal represented 27% of Russia’s coal consumption in 2022, decreasing 7% year over year from 84 million short tons in 2021 to 79 million short tons.43

As of 2021, about 45% of Russian rail cargo was coal. Limited eastbound rail infrastructure from the Kuzbass region to the Pacific Ocean causes congestion and delays compared with more developed rail infrastructure for delivery to Europe.44 In 2023, the reported capacity of Russia’s eastern railways was 185 million short tons with an estimated throughput of 90% (166 million short tons).45 Attempting to meet demand and better reach Asian markets, the Russian government seeks to increase capacity of eastbound railways to 231 million short tons by 2030 with an intermediate target of 198 million short tons by 2025.46

Electricity 

Russia’s installed electricity generation capacity was 301 gigawatts (GW) in 2022, less than 1% greater than in 2021. In 2022, fossil fuels represented 72% of installed capacity, followed by 19% from renewables, and 9% from nuclear. These proportions remained relatively unchanged from 2003 to 2022, but total capacity increased 40% during the same period (216 GW in 2003).47

In 2022, 1,138 terawatthours (TWh) of electricity was generated in Russia, a 1% decrease from 1,148 TWh in 2021. Russia generated 44% of its electricity from natural gas, followed by 20% from nuclear, 19% from hydroelectric, and 15% from coal. Oil, other renewables, and other sources each represented less than 1% of Russia’s electricity generation in 2021 and 2022.48

Russia was the world’s fourth-largest nuclear power generator, after the United States, France, and China as of 2022, and had 37 operating nuclear power reactors representing 28 GW in generating capacity.49 Rosatom, Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation, is one of the world’s largest by-capacity nuclear power companies. It has four nuclear power plant projects under construction as of March 2024.50

Russia was the world’s fifth-largest hydroelectric consumer as of 2022. Hydroelectric power is Russia’s primary renewable source of electricity, making up 17% of installed electricity generation capacity in 2022.51 RusHydro, Russia’s major hydroelectric power company, owns an estimated 70% of installed capacity and most major domestic hydroelectric power plants.52 Non-hydroelectric renewables represented 2% (5 GW) of Russia’s installed capacity in 2022 and 1% of generation.53

Energy trade

Sanctions related to the Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine expedited a shift in Russia’s energy trade toward Asia.54 Asia and Oceania received 85% of reported crude oil exports from Russia in 2023, 37% of Russia’s petroleum product exports, and 84% of Russia’s coal exports. In 2022, when Ukraine-related sanctions began, these same percentages were 52% for crude oil, 21% for petroleum products, and 67% for coal.55

China imported 2.2 million b/d of crude oil from Russia in 2023, 24% more than in 2022 (1.7 million b/d), resulting in Russia becoming China’s top annual supplier of crude oil imports for the first time since 2018 (1.4 million b/d).56

The Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline is Russia’s major supply route for crude oil to Russia’s Far East ports and China. Throughput was estimated at 700,000 b/d in 2021. The Skovorodino-Mohe branch of the ESPO pipeline connects to Chinese-owned pipelines (Russia-China 1 and 2) in China’s northernmost county, with the main branch continuing to Kozmino.57

The Druzhba pipeline system is one of the world’s longest completed pipeline networks, supplying crude oil to Europe from Western Siberia. Transneft operates the pipeline and reported that oil supplied through the pipeline in 2023 decreased 60% year over year, but oil supplied to Russian ports increased 7.2%.58

EU sanctions in 2022 exempted imports of oil from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline system for select European countries, including Czechia, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.59 An 11th package of sanctions adopted by the EU in June 2023 ended exemptions for the northern segment of the pipeline system for Germany and Poland.60 Kazakhstan continues to send oil exports through Russia to European markets; Russia approved the transit of approximately 24,000 b/d of oil from Kazakhstan through the Druzhba system for 2024.61

Seaborne shipments of crude oil and condensates from Russia reached 3.3 million b/d in 2023, increasing 3% from 3.2 million b/d in 2022. Asia and Oceania represented 89% of seaborne crude oil and condensate exports in 2023, compared with 58% in 2022.62

Seaborne shipments of petroleum products from Russia reached 2.6 million b/d in 2023, remaining relatively flat year over year. Asia and Oceania represented 36% of seaborne petroleum product exports, up from 20% in 2022. Diesel represented about 40% of seaborne petroleum products from Russia between 2022 and 2023, but Western sanctions resulted in diesel shipments to Europe decreasing 51% year over year in 2023. To all other regions, except North America, diesel shipments increased.63

Brazil and Saudi Arabia replaced France and Germany as Russia’s second- and third-highest seaborne diesel importers, respectively, in 2023. Brazil received 136,000 b/d in 2023 (1,700 b/d in 2022), and Saudi Arabia received 61,000 b/d in 2023 (1,100 b/d in 2022). Türkiye, a non-EU member, was Russia’s top seaborne diesel importer for both periods, receiving 315,000 b/d in 2023, up from 122,000 b/d in 2022. Select countries in Africa increased annual seaborne diesel imports from Russia by more than 20,000 b/d in 2023, including Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, and Ghana.64

G7 economies, the EU, and Australia announced price caps on crude oil and petroleum products from Russia in late 2022 as part of invasion-related sanctions. The G7 Price Cap Coalition, made up of these countries, released a compliance and enforcement alert in February 2024 highlighting common industry actions taken to evade the price caps, such as false documents, intermediary or irregular shipping routes, and the shadow or gray fleet (anonymously owned or insured vessels used to trade sanctioned oil and oil products).65

In total, EU countries, G7 countries, and Norway insured 56% of departing tankers shipping crude oil from Russia in the first half 2023, decreasing from 76% in 2022. The same countries owned 34% of such tankers departing in the first of half of 2023, decreasing from 54% in 2022.66

Russia aims to develop its Northern Sea Route as a shorter route to Asian markets. In 2023, China received nearly 11 million barrels of crude oil through the Arctic, and in September 2023, Russia authorized non-ice-class oil tankers to deliver shipments of crude oil from Murmansk.67 A separate test shipment sent over 33,000 short tons of coal from the Kuzbass region, north along the Yenisei River, to China via the Northern Sea Route in mid-2023.68

Russia exported 6.2 Tcf of dry natural gas in 2022, decreasing 30% year over year from 8.9 Tcf in 2021. China (14% of exports), Türkiye (12%), and Germany (11%) were Russia’s top importers.69

Gazprom’s Power of Siberia 1 natural gas pipeline set a daily record for natural gas supplied to China in January 2024. Gazprom reported that it exported 802 Bcf of natural gas to China via the pipeline in 2023, a 47% increase from 544 Bcf in 2022.70

Historically, Russia built its natural gas pipelines with the intent to deliver to Europe. The country’s current natural gas export strategy includes the expansion of piped deliveries to non-EU consumers and LNG infrastructure development, each of growing importance since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 71

Western Arctic ports represented 62% (915 Bcf) of Russia’s total seaborne exports of LNG in 2023 (1,483 Bcf), seasonally varying deliveries to Europe or Asia based on access via the Northern Sea Route. During the same year, Far East ports shipped exclusively to Asian markets, and 86% of shipments from Baltic ports went to European destinations. Since Russia’s Portovaya LNG project was completed on the Baltic Coast in 2022, Russia’s LNG shipments from the Baltic Sea increased 136%, from 41 Bcf in 2022 to 97 Bcf in 2023. 72

Russia exported 243 million short tons of coal in 2022, decreasing 7% year over year from 261 million short tons in 2021. Metallurgical coal represented 19% (47 million short tons) of Russia’s total coal exports in 2022. 73

Russia represented an estimated 39% of China’s coal imports in 2022, up from 27% in 2021, as a result of China lifting tariffs on metallurgical coal imports in 2022 and restricting imports of Australian coal from 2020 through early 2023. 74

China, the world’s largest consumer of metallurgical coal, received an estimated 37% (27 million short tons) of its metallurgical coal imports from Russia in 2022. 75

Russia became India’s third-highest supplier of metallurgical coal in 2023, after Australia and the United States, because of decreased imports in India from Australia and Canada, periodic discounts on coal from Russia (compared with coal from Australia), and an overall rise in steel demand from 2020 to 2023.  76

Source: This article was published by EIA

Endnotes:

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EIA

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

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