Reading Between Lines On Susan Rice’s Surprise Visit To Pakistan – Analysis


By K.N. Pandita

Susan Rice, President Obama’s National Security Adviser, who rarely goes on foreign trips unless necessary, was on a one-day visit to Islamabad last Sunday.

A recent VOA broadcast said that Rice had always planned to stop in Islamabad after two days of high-level talks in Beijing ahead of next month’s White House meetings between President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Markedly, something necessitated her sudden one-day visit to Islamabad where, accompanied by Peter Lavoy, Senior Director for South Asian Affairs at the US National Security Council, and Ambassador Richard Olson, she separately called on PM Nawaz Sharif, his National Security Adviser Sartaj Aziz and Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel.

Rice also delivered an invitation from Obama for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to visit the United States in October, the US National Security Council said.

The reasons for the US top envoy’s emergency visit are unexplained. A press release from the Pakistan PMO did not go beyond the unconvincing rhetoric of matters of bilateral interest and the future of Pakistan-US relations.

However, senior US briefing reporters in Islamabad said Rice brought up this month’s rash of attacks that killed more than 50 people in the Afghan capital as an example of how “militants based in Pakistan continue to destabilize much of South Asia.”

“We think a series of recent deadly attacks in Kabul were perpetrated by the Haqqani network,” the official said. “This is absolutely unacceptable”, he added.

In 2011, the Haqqani network was described as a “veritable arm” of the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency by the then chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The latest Kabul attacks came after the revelation that Taliban leader Mullah Omar was dead for two years, which derailed nascent peace talks initially hosted by Pakistan between the Taliban and the West-backed government in Kabul.

Reflecting on this situation, a senior US official said that militant attacks have “developed into a key point of regional friction. Addressing this challenge will be imperative for Pakistan’s relations with its neighbor and with Washington.”

Therefore, the reason for Rice’s hurried visit to Pakistan was aimed at discussing efforts to revive peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, which were suspended after the announcement of the death of longtime Taliban leader Mullah Omar. In US calculus, Pakistan – which had hosted a previous round of direct talks in July – is believed to have influence over the insurgents in Afghanistan.

Talking to Geo News TV, NSA Sartaj Aziz said that the main reason for the delay in reviving talks was a leadership crisis in the Taliban after Mullah Omar’s death. The longtime Taliban leader was replaced by his deputy, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, in a process that has been criticized by Mullah Omar’s family members. “It is not clear yet who is their leader, whom to talk to,” Aziz said.

This is one side of the story. US Security Adviser’s hasty visit to Islamabad has come at a time when regional situation has become very tense. On Pakistan’s western flank, the Pakistan-based Haqqani terrorist group launched a massive attack in Kabul killing at least 50 people. On the eastern one, Pakistan-based LeT and other terrorist groups launched attacks in Gurdaspur and Udhampur-Srinagar Highway and in Rafiabad forests. Two Pakistani terrorists have been captured alive in these attacks. They have made startling revelations. India and the US have agreed to share terrorism-related intelligence.

Indian Home Minister warned Pakistan that there was a limit to India’s patience and border firing and shelling that kills civilians was unacceptable. In all probability, Pakistan with a guilty conscience sees in this warning more than meets the eye.

An indication of Islamabad’s exasperation may be inferred from media reports which say that $300 million US dollars proposed as military aid to Pakistan could be held back if the US determines Pakistan is not doing enough to combat homegrown terrorism – the Haqqani network, accused of some of the deadliest attacks in neighboring Afghanistan, and the LeT in Kashmir. Recently in Kashmir, apart from Pakistani flags, the flags of ISIS have also been fluttering when Islamists gather in crowds.

In a broadcast of August 30, the VOA said that US National Security Advisor Susan Rice is in Pakistan to discuss a range of topics, “particularly terrorist and militant attacks emanating from Pakistani soil.”

In an incisive commentary, the VOA almost got to the the bottom of Rice’s urgent visit to Islamabad. It said that local news reports speculated that the visit was arranged in response to the tensions with India following violent incidents in the Kashmir region.

Pakistan has sought American intervention to de-escalate brewing tensions with India as ongoing deadly skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC) and working boundary set off alarm bells in the West amid talk of a possible limited war between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, the broadcast said.

The issue of souring Pakistan-India ties was one of the key points discussed during talks between US National Security Adviser and Pakistan’s top civil and military leadership on Sunday added the broadcast.

A senior Foreign Office official told The Express Tribune that Rice’s visit focused on bilateral issues as well as current regional situation, including worsening ties between Pakistan and India and unrest in neighboring Afghanistan.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that the Pakistani leadership conveyed serious concerns to Rice on the escalating tensions along the LoC and working boundary. He said Premier Nawaz urged the United States to play a role “in making India realize that such provocations were not in the interest of peace and stability.”

The Express Tribune has also learnt that the US national security adviser assured Pakistan that “her government would persuade New Delhi to come to the negotiating table without setting any preconditions.”

A diplomatic source revealed that the US is keen to arrange a bilateral meeting between the prime ministers of Pakistan and India next month on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York. The source said Rice’s visit is aimed at laying a necessary groundwork for the possible interaction between the two prime ministers.

The US is believed to be quietly pushing for rapprochement between the hostile neighbors on the grounds that further deterioration of Pakistan-India ties could undermine peacemaking efforts in neighboring Afghanistan.

Pakistan Foreign Secretary Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhry, who attended the meeting at the Prime Minister House, confirmed that Islamabad had asked Washington to play its part in lowering tensions between the two neighbors.

Aizaz told a private news channel that Premier Nawaz has informed the US national security adviser about the Indian lukewarm response to Pakistan’s peace overtures and a policy of peaceful neighborhood.

It is pertinent to note that according to Pakistani press, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told the American envoy that if India dared an attack on Pakistan, India will have to suffer great losses. This expression reflects Pakistan’s fear psychosis.

In final analysis, what is easily inferred is that Pakistan has sought intervention in the light of fast deteriorating situation on Indo-Pakistan border and India’s determination to eradicate the menace once for all.

This article was published by Geopolitical

Geopolitical Monitor is an open-source intelligence collection and forecasting service, providing research, analysis and up to date coverage on situations and events that have a substantive impact on political, military and economic affairs.

One thought on “Reading Between Lines On Susan Rice’s Surprise Visit To Pakistan – Analysis

  • September 6, 2015 at 12:35 pm

    India’s determination to eradicate the menace once for all seems very idealistic for rhetoric but has India taken the cognizance of price she is going to pay. May many more things get eradicated once for all as well. While USSR and USA have not been able to eradicate what they wanted and thought to eradicate from Afghanistan, how India thinks to achieve same vis-a-vis nuclear neighbour. Indian mind set needs to be corrected. Seven decades of India-Pakistan history has seen lot of water following under the bridges. While world has transformed from bipolar to uni polar-multi polar, India also needs to transform her mind set and hegemonic thinking. Thinking of living peacefully is the only way forward, so hegemonic approached has to be reconciled.


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