Three Years After Coup, Myanmar Military Junta Falling Apart – OpEd

Exactly three years after the coup that blocked an elected government from taking power, Myanmar’s oppressive military junta seems to be falling apart, with pressures mounting on its supremo Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to step down to pave the way for comprehensive national reconciliation and a return to democracy. 

On 14th January, at a small gathering in a cantonment town in Myanmar, hard line pro-military Buddhist monk Pauk Kotaw shouted at the top of his voice that Min Aung Hlaing should step down as chairman of the State Administration Council and his deputy Senior General Soe Win take over. The crowd cheered in agreement, as seen in gleaned videos of the event posted on social media.

Online, pro-military journalists and bloggers have launched similar tirades against General Hlaing in the past two weeks as the Burmese military Tatmadaw lost control of nearly 40 towms to ethnic rebel armies.

“He should resign as commander-in-chief,” Ko Maung Maung, a pro-military YouTuber said.

“Such public utterances against Myanmar’s powerful junta leader and the chief of its armed forces would have been unthinkable just a few months ago,” says Myanmar watcher Gautam Mukhopadhyay, India’s most active ambassdor so far but now retired from foreign service.

Burmese military insiders say relative moderate senior officers looking to stop the string of military defeats are pitching for Soe Win to take over. Former Burmese military intelligence chief General Myat Tun Oo and former Home Minister Soe Htut are leading the anti-Hlaing faction which has the backing of most mid-ranking officers who feel Hlaing resorted to the Feb 1, 2021 coup when his presidential ambition was blocked by the victorious National League for Democracy led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi .

“That ill-conceived coup set off a chain reaction that has destroyed the country and will now end up destroying the Tatmadaw,” said a brigadier who has recently surrendered to the 3-group Brotherhood Alliance. “Some senior officers are trying to salvage an exit route for the army,” he told this writer over a messaging App on condition of strict anonymity. 

No wonder, for the first time since seizing power in a dawn coup d’etat on Feb. 1, 2021, Min Aung Hlaing finds himself in his weakest position with anger mounting over his leadership after a series of battlefield defeats for the military in a sweeping offensive by rebel groups that started in October, dubbed Operation 1027.

So far, the junta has lost control of at least 35 towns, according to the media collective Myanmar Peace Monitor, although a Beijing-mediated ceasefire has halted clashes near the Chinese border. In other parts, fighting continues.

The junta, which has not addressed specifics about battlefield defeats, has previously acknowledged some loss of control of territory. On Wednesday, on the eve of the coup anniversary, Min Aung Hlaing extended a state of emergency for another six months to allow the military to carry out tasks to “bring the nation to a normal state of stability and peace”.

“There is deep frustration within the military, which extends to Min Aung Hlaing personally,” a diplomat in Southeast Asia told Reuters, asking not to be named. “Some would certainly love to see him go.”

The military is also struggling to recruit soldiers and forcing non-combat personnel to the frontline – all causing blowback for Min Aung Hlaing, the diplomat said.

Junta spokespersons are avoiding media queries to elicit a formal response .

To be sure, the army’s losses on the battlefield may not lead to a collapse and it is unclear if or how Min Aung Hlaing could be pushed out or who may replace him, including his current deputy Soe Win.

However, the events have damaged both Min Aung Hlaing’s standing and that of the Myanmar military, known as the Tatmadaw, which the U.N. has accused of conducting systematic human rights violations in the country.

Many senior officers are upset with Hlaing’s recent choices for key positions– specially the choice of Maj Gen Toe Yi, who ran the country’s notorious interrogation centres as deputy home minister. Yi, who headed the Sa Pa Ya unit, is said to have pressured a lot of field commanders to fight to death or face executions when all seemed lost during battles with motivated rebel formations in the last 3 months.

“Its poor showing on the battlefield is seen as shameful by nationalists and other military supporters who have launched unprecedented public criticism of Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership,” said Richard Horsey, the Crisis Group’s senior Myanmar adviser.

Those asking hard questions of the regime and its leader include pro-junta journalists, according to a Reuters review of multiple social media posts in recent weeks.

Moe Hein, who runs the pro-junta news platform Thuriya Nay Wun and often appears on state television, raised doubts about the military’s senior leadership after the fall of Laukkai town during Operation 1027 in early January.

“A win or loss in a battle depends on everyone from the commander in chief to the troop commanders,” he said on Facebook.

Scot Marciel, a former U.S. ambassador to Myanmar, said the military was, “being pressured on multiple fronts, has lost substantial territory and control of a number of towns, and appears to be suffering from low morale and poor leadership”.

In a roadmap announced after the coup, the junta pledged to hold elections by August 2023.

But popular unrest spiralled out of control soon after, which the military attempted to violently put down, triggering nationwide armed uprisings that have now combined with decades-old rebel groups to fight the junta.

Alongside, Myanmar’s economy – already weakened following decades of military-dominated rule – has taken a battering, with foreign investment drying up since the coup and Western sanctions taking hold.

Power outages, frequent supply shocks of key commodities including fuel and sky-rocketing prices are hitting ordinary families, thereby further eroding support for the junta, said a financial analyst.

“People from all walks of life have started feeling the sting,” said the analyst, asking not to be named citing safety concerns.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, the National Unity Government (NUG), which comprises of people from Suu Kyi’s party, along with three rebel groups allied with it said they were open to negotiations with the military if it met six conditions.

NUG foreign minister Zin Mar Aung said the army has to return to barracks and accept civilian control to end military involvement in politics and agree to pave the way for a comprehensive dialogue with all stakeholders to restore democracy and work towards making Myanmar an authentic federation with only few powers like defence, foreign affairs, currency, home, border affairs and heavy industry under the central government.  

There was no immediate junta response to the NUG statement.

The opposition has limited time before fighting grinds to a halt in many parts when the monsoon rains arrive around June.

Former US ambassador Marciel said the resistance “now has a very real chance to defeat the military, at least in terms of forcing the military to surrender substantial political power”.

“But it is difficult to predict how long this might take.”  

That depends largely on how the internal dynamics within the army plays out — if the anger within the army turns into a mutiny of sorts, Min Aung Hlaing’s day at the top of the hierarchy is numbered.