The Ukraine Truth: What Comes Next? – OpEd


Western media has confused the populace on the real situation of Ukraine. On one hand seeing the Russian -Ukraine war from our drawing rooms we are shown a picture of total destroyed and devastated Ukraine. Those who appear to have left Ukraine appear to be reasonably well to do Ukrainians and poor have been left behind to fight the miseries of war. On the other hand the Western and EU leadership continue to visit Ukraine and hold conferences reflecting business as usual in the country. 

President Zelensky keeps claiming victories and pushing back Russian forces. On 03 February, Ukraine President Zelensky held a joint summit with the EU leaders. European Commission President, European Council President and Foreign Policy Chief along with 15 other EU leaders took part in the summit. In a joint statement: “The EU reiterated its unwavering support and commitment to Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders.”NATO Chief’s Peace train loaded with “Weapons for Peace” continues to push weapons into Ukraine for peace; A new Western philosophy is coming into play “Weapons for Peace”. Western allies are now to push in powerful battle tanks and armored vehicles like the US Abram tanks, German Leopard tanks, Challengers, Marders, Bradleys, and AMXs.

What Comes Next From Russia?

Russians continue celebrating their various victory anniversaries with President   Putin addressing during the ongoing Russian-Ukraine Conflict be it the 8th Anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimeaor the 80th Anniversary of the victory in the Battle of Stalingrad on the banks of the great Russian Volga River. Note should be taken of the relevant statements made by President   Putin on 02 Feb from the banks of the great Russian Volga River which reflect the future strategy for the battle while reading between the lines:

  • The hated, cruel enemy was stopped and sent into irreversible retreat, bringing to a conclusion the long, arduous, fierce battle for Stalingrad…the very existence of a tormented but ‘Unvanquished Country’ was at stake.
  • For 200 days at Stalingrad, two armies fought to the death amid the ruins of this legendary city…Can only be understood and explained by their loyalty to the Motherland. Stalingrad has forever become a symbol of the invincibility of our people, of the very power of life. 
  • Now we are seeing that unfortunately, the ideology of Nazism – this time in its modern guise – is again creating direct threats to our national security, and we are, time and again, forced to resist the aggression of the collective West.
  • However incredible, it is a fact – we are again being threatened with German Leopard tanks. There is again a plan to fight Russia on Ukrainian land using Hitler’s successors.
  • Those who are hoping to defeat Russia on the battlefield, apparently fail to understand that a modern war against Russia will be a completely different war for them. “We do not send our tanks to their borders but we have what to respond with, and it is not limited to the use of armour. Everyone must realise this”.

Over 2,000 tanks are already claimed to be destroyed in the conflict. Ukraine-Russia War has proved that the tank hey days are coming to an end and for both the countries the conflict has proved a waterloo for their armoured vehicles! Unmanned systems, drones top-attack weapons, UAVs, man-portable ATGMs like Javelin and NLAW have posed major challenges to the tank’s survival. So big tank battles may be a thing of the past. However tank manufacturers will continue to produce to make profits.

The way forward lies in use of Armed drones, Drones with PGMs and smart Artillery munitions all controlled in a Network Centric Environment. Iranian-supplied UAVs Shahed 131 and 136 to Russia, renamed as Geran 1/2 have proved that it is truly a revolutionary precision weapon which during the war has challenged the Wests defensive measures and are being extensively deployed by the Russians. So the viability of the Western tanks is questionable. Americans by their own admission are convinced that Abrams are not fit for the European terrain. Where do the trained troops come for manning and operating these tanks which are going to be sitting ducks for the armed UAVs. 

The Ukraine Truth 

After the initial Ukrainian victories through counteroffensives in October, and November, the Ukrainians pushed back the Russian due to Western weapons and information provided by the NATO War Room. High morale of the Ukrainian forces was another major factor for these victories. However, the tide on ground is again turning in favour of the Russian forces by the arrival of the additional mobilized troops on the battle front.

Ukraine’s effort to capitalize on a successful counteroffensivein the Kharkiv region by retaking more territory nearby appears to have been stalled with Russian troops intensifying attacks. Exhausted Ukrainian forces were forced to retreat west and south from the salt-mine town of Soledar after weeks of pounding by Russian troops. Ukraine is rushing reinforcements to defend Vuhledar and push back Russian positions. 

President  Zelensky himself is warning not only about the difficult conditions that Ukrainian troops are fighting under in multiple locations in the Donbas but is also warning of an imminent fresh  Russian offensives .Some front-line officers have also hinted at the possibility that Ukrainian commanders might order a retreat as withdrawing temporarily from some territories may be considered.

Ukrainian troops have also reported an increase in Russian attacks, led by marine infantry units from the Russian Pacific Fleet. “Russians want to show some sort of achievement by the anniversary” of the invasion

Ukraine’s defence minister; “Russia is planning a major offensive to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine on 24 February”.

A Foreseeable Scenario

This Russian-Ukraine war “May not see any Victors but only Losers” on both sides with the front lines stabilizing “As is Where is” on ground meaning a ceasefire by the opposing sides. This scenario does not provide for a full-fledged peace, but rather a temporary peace and is likely to be thrust by huge humanitarian crisis on the Ukrainian side. Such a scenario would be possible when Russia adapts for long war, but does not have the ability to defeat Ukraine as the West will continue to provide Ukraine with arms and ammunition and President Zelensky will continue fighting with the total support of the US led West.

Ukraine may be forced by an internal political confrontation arising between those who support continuing the war and those who support at least a temporary cessation of hostilities in view of the miseries being faced. However, Zelensky Administration with the present high approval ratings of their President will not welcome this development. Lastly how long can the EU especially the Western European nations keep supporting this Proxy war of the US-NATO combine by sacrificing their national interests.

Patial RC

Patial RC is a retired Infantry officer of the Indian Army and possesses unique experience of serving in active CI Ops across the country and in Sri Lanka. Patial RC is a regular writer on military and travel matters in military professional journals. The veteran is a keen mountaineer and a trekker.

2 thoughts on “The Ukraine Truth: What Comes Next? – OpEd

  • February 6, 2023 at 7:27 pm

    The author climbs on the end-of-tanks bandwagon, but the people actively involved in fighting this war continue to seek out tanks. It is not all or even significantly “push” from tank manufacturers and their governments. Ukrainian and Russian militaries both want them. Weapons technology advances and the vulnerability of old weapons to new ones is a fact of war-fighting and has been so for centuries. But soldiers still bring knives to battle. And hand-guns and rifles. Their use patterns and effectiveness change, but they are not completely obsoleted. By those doing the fighting, tanks are said to still be effective in combined-arms attacks and they are finding use as a form of mobile short-range artillery.

    The author also slurs Zelensky as he “keeps claiming victories” and then uses the fact that “Zelensky himself is warning” about difficult conditions and an anticipated Russian assault. Is Zelensky manipulating opinion by being too optimistic or is he unaware that he is ‘admitting’ that things are dire for the Unkrainians? Both? Or is the author just cobbling together straw-man arguments that are inconsistent?

  • February 7, 2023 at 4:28 am

    JustLiberty Comments : Are somewhat relevant but the article is more focused to the prevailing situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Had President Biden and Zelensky not been on the scene story of this war may have been different! Modernisation and upgrading of weapons systems and platforms is an ongoing process and takes years to do that followed by training for months. And Yes, it is a push from tank, arms manufacturers. Saying hey days for tanks are near over means their importance and survival due to PGMs and top attack munitions has reduced as seen in Azerbaijan–Armenia war and in this ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as well. If things are dire for the Ukrainians then are these weapons of peace for immediate peace or to continue the war. Why can the UN not call to freeze the war?


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