ISSN 2330-717X

Iran Ready To Push Assad Aside? – OpEd

By

An email dated December 13, 2011 (part of the intelligence trove newly released by Wikileaks) containing information gathered by Reva Bhalla, Director of Analysis at Stratfor, says that Iran recognizes that Bashar al-Assad will soon lose control of Syria and that it might be in Tehran’s interests to see him go sooner rather than later.

Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have concluded that Asad’s regime cannot be rescued. It is perfectly understood that the regime in Damascus will fall along lines similar to the Libyan model. There will have to be a coup in Damascus, be it a military or political one.

One must not dismiss the pragmatism of Khamenei. Iran appears to be willing to use its influence in Syria to stage a coup, provided that it is able to ensure that the new leadership will continue to pursue excellent relations with Tehran. The Iranians have approached the Americans on this. In the past, Iran collaborated with the U.S. on the ouster of Saddam Hussein and Iran won big in Iraq. The Iranians would not mind working again on ousting Asad if they can secure good results in Syria. Syria’s contiguity to Iraq allows Iran to play a direct role in the affairs of Damascus.

The Iranians feel they need to act on Syria soon because the Turks have their own plans for Syria and are not coordinating with the Iranians. He says the Turks are moving slowly but systematically. Iran does not want to allow Turkey to take over Syria. Whereas the Turks are coordinating with the Brotherhood and the FSA, the Iranians prefer a palace coup in damascus in order to maintain their ties with Asad’s successors. What is delaying action in Syria is the fact that the U.S. has not yet decided on the shape of the post-Asad political system. Nevertheless, he insists that Asad’s regime will fall, although the future of Syria after the regime change remains nebulous.

Who is “he”, Stratfor’s source? A member of Hezbollah’s politburo — not someone likely to be cheering Asad’s departure.

The analysis also says:

Alawite officers are aware that Asad is trying to find an asylum for himself and his family should his regime become unslavageable. This is upsetting many Alawites who are coming to realize that Asad will abandon them. If so, they reason that it would be suicidal to continue to win the wrath of the Sunnis.

Paul Woodward - War in Context

Paul Woodward - War in Context

Paul Woodward describes himself by nature if not profession, as a bricoleur. A dictionary of obscure words defines a bricoleur as “someone who continually invents his own strategies for comprehending reality.” Woodward has at various times been an editor, designer, software knowledge architect, and Buddhist monk, while living in England, France, India, and for the last twenty years the United States. He currently lives frugally in the Southern Appalachians with his wife, Monica, two cats and a dog Woodward maintains the popular website/blog, War in Context (http://warincontext.org), which "from its inception, has been an effort to apply critical intelligence in an arena where political judgment has repeatedly been twisted by blind emotions. It presupposes that a world out of balance will inevitably be a world in conflict."

One thought on “Iran Ready To Push Assad Aside? – OpEd

  • Avatar
    March 7, 2012 at 5:17 pm
    Permalink

    Islamic republic is doing the right thing.Assad indeed was bocoming a liability.Alwites are an ofshoot from main stream Shias,followers of the Prophet and his family.Iran has the support from Hizbulla and Hamas and because these three run their affairs largely according to the divine teachings of the Quran,they have nothing to worry about the desopotic leaders in the Arab world and the constant bullying from the west/zionist entity.Not to forget the people of the Muslim East do not play secetarian card-on the contrary the people of different Muslim lands totally support Hizbulla/Hamas/Iran.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.