The Moon Of Modi
- That goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, (JFK)
- Structural reforms in agriculture that would boost private investment, strengthen logistics and provide ample market support to the collective farmer fight against poverty, unemployment, drought, flood, pollution, corruption and violence ”(NDM)
- That is one we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we are going to win, and the others, too (JFK)
- “India has always been moving forward. This time too, we shall move ahead with determination and achieve the goal. “(Narendra D. Modi July 6, 2019)
Indiscreet Conversations: Professional Pessimists In Action
- I don’t like the goal of producing a 5 trillion GDP for 2024. Could it be that the 5 trillions of 2024 are the start of even greater growth?
- Indeed there is this danger.
- How can we block it?
- We begin to declare that the goal of the 5 trillions is impossible.
Preliminary To Take Off For The Moon: Consolidate Today’s Structure
Danger is around the corner. And it has a name: trend. But what is worse, it is a positive trend.
The Moon Landing that the charismatic Indian PM proposes, more capital, more efficiency, more productivity, must defeat a trend. A very dangerous trend. The worst of all, the positive one. Why is that so? The problem is that at a growth rate of 7% China’s GDP in 2029 will be 31 trillion, India’s 8%, 24 trillion. The current GDP difference between China and India, which is around 12 trillion, will almost double, will become 23 trillion.
Only the incremental difference of Chinese GDP will be equal to three times the GDP of India, with devastating effects on per capita income. Trends don’t mean much to explore the future but shed lights on past. How is it possible that India, a country with the same population, the same growth potential, the same Asian position has lost so much ground with its historical competitor in such a short time?
Amartya Sen says it depended on the poor weight given to education and welfare in India. If this is true, and the high quality of the Indian economist suggests at least that was relevant, we must ask ourselves how did this happen considering that most of the previous governments were self-proclaimed with social inspiration? The most plausible explanation is that this progressive decline in GDP compared to that of China has not been perceived and adequately understood by the governments in charge in its double economic and security complexity.
But can a trend be stopper? That is sure. At certain conditions of course. There was a time when IBM thanks to its trends would have conquered the world, but the Apple came. The Kodak color should have invaded the planet, and the digital age came. To defeat a trend, we need a factor of discontinuity, the one that for China’s poor GDP was Deng Xiaoping, with his opening abroad and with his dual path, market for economic activity, firm control of Communist party for politics. For Kennedy the discontinuity factor was the moon landing challenge. And for Modi? Where to look for the India’s discontinuity factor necessary to neutralize the negative impact of the trends?
The Great Power Of India’s Intellectual Potential
India is a country with immense physical resources but above all with immense intellectual potential that has been neglected. The restructuring of the Indian economy on more productive and modern bases can only take place with an authentic revolution: the potential of the role of the K factor in the GDP. Just as it happened with Kennedy’s moon landing.
The only real possibility of reversing the growing gap with the USSR was a capital-knowledge combination, the same mix is for Modi, the only possibility of blocking the growing gap of GDP from China. is based on the strengthening of the K Factor ( knowledge) based on the GDKP, because it was precisely the K factor that at the beginning of the twentieth century drastically overturned the GDP level in favor of the West against that of China.
But if the development of the K factor is the only way to stop the differential gap between the two economies, the foundations of it must first be sought in strengthening the economic structure of the present. This is the very difficult task already accomplished in the first five years of the mandate of Modi, as well detailed by Dr. R. Kumar in an article on Standard Business of March 21, 2019.
Kumar is the Vice Chancellor of NITI aayog, the institution PM Modi has created of which he is Chairman to replace the Planning Commission with the very ambitious aim of radically redefining the chart of a renewal of the Indian economy. Kumar is an economist of absolute world value. Ph.D in India at Lucknow University and at Oxford University, he is pragmatic at the right point, but also he has an exceptional theoretical foresight that allowed him to immediately adopt the fundamental economic philosophy needed to ensure the Moon Landing for Modi: the knowledge revolution. In his years he laid down the basis for it.
The positive results of the Indian economy range from the structural reduction of the deficit (from 6% to 3.4%); reduction of the inflation rate, and the increase in reserves to over $ 400 billion, which came out of the recapitalization crisis. But to the long macro economic list rightly highlighted by Kumar we need to add some remarkable micro-socio-economic success. The significant increase in rural roads, rural and urban built houses, benefits in social assistance and in the welfare state and the multiplication of toilets. Let’s not undervalue its importance for the economy. Let us not forget that Vespasian, one of the greatest Roman emperors, owes the immortality of his name to the greatest policy of building public toilets all over the empire.
The list of macro economic and para-economic successes made by Kumar is long and the electoral results show, that they were perceived as such by the population. It is clear that the population has felt the substantial improvement of the economic situation substantially and it is undoubtedly that it is on the basis of this perception that PM Modi has announced the goal of reaching the 5 trillions of GDP for 2024. And it is precisely this point that the comparison with Kennedy becomes relevant because if there is a leap there must be trends against it.
And it is here that Modi’s charisma must be measured against Kennedy’s one. The path chosen by Kennedy to cover up and overturn this situation was to focus on a scientific (economic and military) break through, the strengthening of the K Factor (knowledge) and that was how he won the game. And the enhancement of the K factor is the only way for Modi to bring the growing gap between the Chinese and Indian GDP under control. And the GDKP India, wanted by Vice Chairman of NIti and whose necessity is formalized by the Chief of Indian Statistics, is the fundamental starting tool for Modi’s challenge to the trends. And Modi’s charisma must push the operational machine to supply India with this tool.
Hence the central role of the GDKP India must be assured. Unfortunately, despite having been decided, there have been delays at operating levels, totally unjustified considering that the highest Indian statistical authority and the highest authority for restructuring the Indian economy have officially affirmed the need to calculate it. The mentioned Virus of delay is again in action?
Next: The Moon landing take off