Russia’s Attack On Ukrainian Food Grain Infrastructures: New Challenges Towards Global Food Security – Analysis

Russia initiated a series of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) assaults on Ukraine’s ports, escalating its assault on the nation’s food-export infrastructure after its withdrawal from a grain deal in the Black Sea region. This development has raised apprehensions over the potential reoccurrence of disruptions to a substantial percentage of the global food supply due to the ongoing conflict.

Ukraine is recognized as a prominent global exporter of grains. This grain was originally intended for export to various nations in Africa, China, and Israel. Ukraine uses the Danube route as a means of transporting grain through smaller boats, often destined for Romania, where it is then transshipped onto bigger maritime carriers for global food distribution. The port city served as the only remaining channel for the country’s Black Sea grain exports after Russia’s withdrawal from the export agreement the previous month.

Given the disruption that Russia’s embargo on maritime trade at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports has caused, the port, which is located on the opposite bank of the river from Romania, serves as the main alternative route for Ukraine’s grain exports.

The aforementioned exports are now immune from sanctions, a measure that the Western nations assert Moscow is attempting to undermine by posing a danger to the world food supply. The Russian Federation has a diminished capability to pose a significant threat to the western region of the Black Sea, including the territorial seas of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, all of which are member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

For a duration exceeding two weeks, Russia has engaged in hostile actions against agricultural and port infrastructure after it refused to renew the grain agreement that had previously alleviated the wartime blockade of Ukrainian ports in 2022. In a series of attacks that lasted nine days following their withdrawal from the grain agreement, Moscow allegedly targeted 26 port facilities, five civilian boats, and roughly 180,000 tons of grain.

The recent aerial attacks in southern Ukraine targeted various locations, including grain silos, a marine terminal, and port administration buildings. These operations were carried out using Shahed-136 drones, which are of Iranian origin. A total of 11 drones were successfully neutralized in the southern area of Ukraine during the nocturnal offensive, while a cumulative count of 23 drones was intercepted and brought down throughout the nation.

Nevertheless, recent developments indicate that Russia has launched an assault on Ukraine’s primary inland port, situated along the Danube River, next to Romania. This aggressive action has further exacerbated already-soaring global food prices as Russia intensifies its efforts to impede Ukraine’s grain exports.

Since withdrawing from the Black Sea agreement, Russia has been persistently targeting Odesa and other significant grain exporting hubs, disrupting Ukraine’s formerly secure exportation of agricultural products. In light of the closure of the Black Sea, Kyiv has been making efforts to increase grain transportation through the Danube River. The Danube River ports were responsible for around 25% of grain exports. However, with Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea pact, these ports have emerged as the primary transportation route. Grain is now loaded onto barges and transported to Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta, from where it is further sent to its final destinations.

The latest attacks on Ukraine’s grain infrastructure have been characterized by Russia as a retaliatory response to Ukraine’s military action targeting a bridge connecting the Kerch Strait to Crimea, which serves as a crucial supply route for Russian forces stationed in southern Ukraine. The objective of the strikes is to reinstate Russia’s embargo by convincing shippers and their insurance companies that Ukrainian ports are not secure enough to begin exporting activities. The recent escalation of Russian assaults on Ukrainian ports and agricultural infrastructure may be seen as a continuation of the Kremlin’s strategic decision not to expand the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Even with the ongoing attacks, Russia has expressed its intention to rejoin the agreement on the condition that Western nations fulfill its stipulations, which include the re-establishment of a connection between a Russian agricultural bank and the Swift international payments system, as well as the facilitation of Russian ammonia exports.

The attacks near Romania’s border concerning the Black Sea port have further exacerbated the military tensions between Russia and NATO. Last week, NATO and Ukraine reached an agreement to increase the frequency of surveillance aircraft flights over the Black Sea as a reaction to the dangers posed by Russia. Also, Russia recently deployed a warship to the southern Black Sea as a component of a wider strategy aimed at posing risks to commercial ships.

Since the start of the conflict, the European Union has established three designated “solidarity lanes” to facilitate the exportation of Ukrainian goods via Europe. After that, a large quantity of grain, oilseeds, and associated goods that have been transported from Ukraine through these transportation channels amounts to 41 million metric tons, surpassing the 33 million tons that were exported under the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The EU has tried to help Ukraine by creating a land corridor to Poland’s Baltic Sea ports, allowing some of its food exports to reach the rest of the world. However, this route is slower, more expensive, and more vulnerable to sabotage than the direct sea route from the Black Sea. Moreover, it does not address the problem of food security for countries that are not connected to the EU market.

Russia’s attack on the Ukrainian Black Sea port has exacerbated the global food crisis by disrupting the supply of grain and other foodstuffs from one of the world’s top agricultural exporters. Ukraine is a major producer of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil, and its exports are vital for many countries, especially in Africa and Asia. According to the UN, nearly 25 million tons of grain are stuck in Ukraine due to the Russian blockade and bombardment of its ports. This has caused global food prices to soar and increased the risk of hunger and malnutrition for millions of people.

The situation is particularly dire for countries that depend on Ukrainian food imports, such as Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Morocco. These countries are facing shortages of staple foods such as bread, rice, and cooking oil and have limited options to find alternative sources. Following Russia’s attack and subsequent withdrawal from a previously agreed-upon deal that the United Nations and Turkey were mediating, the UN has raised awareness of the potential for a food crisis in the most economically underdeveloped nations in the world.

The UN has called for a global response to the food crisis and urged Russia to stop its attacks on Ukrainian ports and respect the humanitarian principles of international law. The UN has also appealed for more funding and assistance to provide emergency food aid to the most affected countries and regions. However, the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the conflict remain uncertain as Russia continues to escalate its military aggression and defy international pressure.

In conclusion, the food crisis resulting from Russia’s attack against Ukraine is both a humanitarian catastrophe and a significant threat to worldwide peace and security. It shows how food can be used as a weapon in geopolitical games and how vulnerable the world is to disruptions in food supply chains. It also highlights the need for more cooperation and solidarity among countries to ensure food security for all people.