Essequibo Province: Will Venezuela And Guyana Go To War? – Analysis

At the end of January, a pro-government meeting was held in Caracas, where a large crowd supported the Venezuelan demands for Essequibo with trumpets, drums, songs and dance. Participants of parade carried Venezuelan flags and maps enlarged for the border region that Venezuela has claimed for more than two centuries.

Venezuelans believe that the Guyanese, historically the British (Guyana was a British colony until 1966), want to take the disputed province away from them because it is rich in oil, gold, minerals, forests and water. The protest was another reminder of the border dispute between the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and the Cooperative Republic of Guyana. The province of Essequibo has turned into a new crisis hotspot that could further shake the already unstable geopolitical picture of the world.

Province of Essequibo

Essequibo, also known as Esequibo or Guayana Esequiba in Spanish, is the area west of the river of the same name. With 160,000 square kilometers, the province is roughly the size of Florida, Greece, Tajikistan and Tunisia. The region is controlled by Guyana, based on the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899, but Venezuela also claims it and considers its state of Guiana Esequiba. 120,000 inhabitants live there. The population density is low because it is mostly forest land.

Although there are no major cities and just a few roads, it is home to a vast rainforest and spectacular scenery such as the Kaieteur Falls. Its shores on the Atlantic Ocean are rich in oil reserves that Guyana has begun to exploit in recent years. The border dispute was inherited from the colonial powers (Spain in the case of Venezuela, and the Netherlands and the United Kingdom in the case of Guyana) and has continued to this day.

Historical context

In 1835, the British government hired an explorer of German origin, Robert Hermann Schomburgk, to explore the boundaries of British Guiana. The research resulted in the so-called The “Schomburg Line”, which went far beyond the area of British administration and gave British Guiana control over the mouth of the Orinoco River. Venezuela disputed that interpretation, arguing that the sparsely populated territory was part of Spain’s colonial territory.

Essequibo was listed as part of the state territory in Venezuela’s first constitution in 1811. Tensions worsened after the discovery of gold mines in 1876, culminating in the severance of diplomatic relations between Venezuela and Great Britain in 1887. Subsequently, Caracas chose Washington to be its representative in arbitration. With the mediation of the USA, there was a Paris arbitration award in 1899 and a verdict in favor of the British Empire.

In 1949, in a memorandum written by Severo Mallet-Prevost, the official secretary of the American-Venezuelan delegation to the arbitration, it is written that the decision was the result of pressure from the president of the court, Friedrich Martens, and a political agreement between Russia and Britain. The aforementioned memorandum led to Venezuela’s complaints to the UN in 1962, which resulted in the Geneva Agreement, signed with Great Britain in February 1966. The agreement stipulates that the parties will find a practical, peaceful and satisfactory solution. If there is a deadlock, according to the agreement, the decision on how to resolve it must be forwarded to the “appropriate international body” or the UN Secretary General. The UN Secretary General referred the entire matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in December 2020. The ICJ accepted the case at the request of Guyana, and Venezuela disputes its right to mediate.

​Black gold revives the dispute

Although the dispute never disappeared, in recent years, since large amounts of crude oil were found in the Essequibo area, the Venezuelan government has brought it up again. For decades, more than 50% of Guyana’s population lived below the poverty line, but in 2015, when the American oil giant ExxonMobil discovered an 11 billion barrel crude oil field just off the coast of Essequibo, Guyana’s economy underwent a drastic transformation.

More significant oil exploitation began in 2019 and Guyana’s economy quickly tripled. Guyana has transformed from a country with almost the lowest GDP per capita in Latin America in the early 1990s, to a country with the 4th highest GDP per capita in the Americas, behind the USA, Canada and the Bahamas. According to the IMF, this is the fastest growth rate anywhere in the world.

In addition, Essequibo possesses large amounts of gold, diamonds and bauxite. On the other hand, more than 7.7 million Venezuelans have left their country as a result of the decade-long political and economic crisis. The country is experiencing a humanitarian crisis that has impoverished the population. In 2020, due to a lack of investment, oil exports fell to their lowest level in 75 years and despite the easing of US sanctions, exports did not grow as much as expected last year.

Venezuela raises the stakes 

On December 3, the Venezuelan government organized a referendum in which 95% of voters said that Essequibo should become the new Venezuelan state. In January, the government organized a nationally televised exhumation of the corpse of General Domingo Sifontes. Sifontes died in 1912 and has a certain connection with the province. During his service, Sifontes promoted exploration of the area, protection of indigenous communities, and resistance to the British. He fought against British expansion into eastern Venezuela. The strongest conflict was the The Cuyuní incident in which Venezuelan forces took over a British military stronghold.

During a ceremony in January, soldiers dressed in 19th-century uniforms carried Sifontes’ exhumed bones into the National Pantheon, with President Nicolas Maduro leading the ceremony. “Sooner or later, Essequibo will be ours forever,” Maduro said in a 40-minute speech, describing Sifontes as an example for Venezuelan youth to follow. “Long live the great country of Venezuela and its national heroes!”

This kind of rhetoric has led some observers to conclude that Caracas wants to take over Essequibo by war, and others that it is a show for domestic purposes. While most analysts reject the military option, arguing that Venezuela as a country and its armed forces do not have the military power to carry out such an undertaking (Venezuela has not been at war for centuries), the Guyanese are far more cautious and do not want to take any chances.

For the Guyanese, the territory is not disputed. Losing it would be catastrophic because Essequibo makes up 2/3 of the country’s territory. Therefore, Guyanese representatives met with US and UK military officials in December to discuss the potential threat. Guyana’s small navy held military exercises with the British and US navies, prompting Venezuela to conduct its own military exercises near the Guyanese border. Brazil responded by militarizing its border with Venezuela and Guyana.

Argyle Declaration

​In order to prevent further escalation, Brazil, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) arranged singing of Argyle Declaration on December 14 in Argyle, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The two countries signed the document which foresees a peaceful resolution of the dispute.

Furthermore, the Venezuelan and Guyanese foreign ministers, Yván Gil and Hugh Hilton Todd, held a meeting on the disputed region on January 25 at the Itamaraty Palace in Brasilia, the center of the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Mediated by Brazil’s foreign minister, Mauro Vieira, the meeting lasted about seven hours and concluded with a statement stating that negotiations would continue.

In a joint statement, the two countries reaffirmed their commitment to the Argyle Declaration and the principles of peace. The two ministers presented proposals for the work of the Joint Commission, which will be discussed at the next meeting in Brazil, which is scheduled to take place in April. The Venezuelan minister said the meeting “was a step forward in diplomatic talks.”

Brazil as a key mediator

Brazil, under the leadership of the socialist president Luiz Inácio Lula de Silva, was the most engaged to resolve the Venezuelan-Guyanese conflict. The Brazilian president does this in order to confirm that Brazil is the most powerful country in Latin America and also a leader of the region in the international arena. Brazil wants to assert itself as one of the leaders of the Global South. If Lula’s administration resolves the dispute over the province of Essequibo, it will significantly strengthen its status in international affairs.

However, it is not easy. If the dispute is easy to resolve, it would have been done a long time ago. “If there is one thing we need to be able to develop and improve the lives of our people, it is to calm down and work hard to improve people’s lives, and not to think about fighting,” Lula said last November ahead of the disputed referendum. Apparently, Lula is particularly annoyed by the outbreak of the Essequibo crisis, since he personally wanted to position himself as the leader of a Latin America without conflicts. If there are no armed conflicts in Latin America, the way is open for investors who can freely come and help the crumbling economies. At the same time, Lula could devote more time to solving of the Ukrainian and Palestinian crises.

Lula’s risk

Lula is one of Nicolas Maduro’s main allies. Lula tries to influence him, as he once tried to do with Hugo Chavez. The Brazilian leader wants to direct Venezuelan leaders to create a sustainable alternatives to capitalism and unipolarism in the form of 21st century socialism and multipolarism in Latin America. While Lula succeeded to some extent on the geopolitical level, on the internal political level it turned out that the Venezuelan leaders do not really listen to him, or do not understand what he wants.

Due to left-wing radicalism, Venezuela went from a promising country to a country with the largest drop in GDP in the world in peacetime (75%). Although solving the Essequibo problem continues and the outcome is uncertain, Luli’s meditation is not going smoothly. The very fact that Guyana considered asking the US and UK for military assistance to counter the invasion is an indication of Lula’s limited capacity in his neighborhood. If the US, EU or UK take over the the dispute, it will undermine Brazil’s aspirations for a stronger foreign policy accomplishments.

According to foreign affairs professor Roberto Goulart of the University of Brasilia, Brazil’s mediation is important, but it puts the country in a situation that drains the government’s energy: “Brazil has internal problems that require effort to solve. We had an attempted coup seven days after Lula’s inauguration ceremony. Therefore, the president does not have much political energy to spend on foreign policy issues,” said the professor.

For Gilberto Maringoni, professor of foreign affairs at the ABC Federal University (UFABC), the issue will continue throughout 2024, which is good for both Venezuela and Guyana. Maringoni points out that it is important for Brazil to position itself as an articulator, but the situation is difficult to resolve: “The fact that the case was passed in Brasilia is relevant because it positions Brazil as an articulator on the continent at a time when it is under attack from the Argentine government. This is a very important chess game.”

Fears of the indigenous population

Native chiefs in the Essequibo are concerned about their safety in the event of an invasion. They fear that the arrival of the Venezuelan administration in the belt of tropical forests could threaten their lands. The Association of American Indian Nations (APA) said that some families have already moved out of their villages in search of safety.

Of the approximately 120,000 inhabitants of the province, 85,000 are Indians, which include the Akawaio, Arawak, Arecuna, Carib, Macushi, Patamona, Wai-Wai, Wapichan and Warao peoples. Since most of the oil fields are located in Guyana’s coastal waters, oil drilling does not directly affect the Indian lands, which are mostly located inland. However, Maduro’s interest in exploring and exploiting minerals in the interior has the potential to directly affect the natives. That is why they are against the pretensions of the West. Guyanese mining activities in the region have already been a problem in the past, although many Indians have also been involved. When mining took place near communities, some suffered from contamination of rivers and drinking water by the mercury used in the mining process, which also led to harmful effects on fish and game.

The outcome and consequences of a potential military invasion

Any violation of Guyana’s sovereignty by Venezuela would result in a blanket diplomatic isolation and the reimposition of Western sanctions against Caracas that were eased after Maduro and opposition leaders reached the Barbados accord in October. It would also encourage the government in Georgetown to seek international military support for its defense.

There is no doubt that the Guyanese would have sent a plea to the US to intervene in the war. It is also certain that the American authorities, regardless of whether there is a Democrat or a Republican in the White House, would accept it wholeheartedly. Both Republicans and Democrats are heartily opposed to the Maduro government and have been competing for almost a decade over who is the greater enemy of the Maduro’s regime. In response to the flaring crisis, Guyana’s Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo recently traveled to Washington to discuss deepening security ties.

There has been speculation that Guyanese President Irfaan Ali may seek help from the US to open a military base in Essequibo. This was denied by Guyanese authorities in January, but remains an option should an invasion occur.

When looking at the opposing military forces, there is no doubt that the Venezuelan military is stronger than the Guyanese. According to the Global FirePower portal, the Venezuelan army is 57th in the world, and Guyana’s is not even on the list. If war were to occur, the Venezuelan military would be in a better position as it has more than 100,000 soldiers, 600 armored vehicles, 200 tanks, 100 fighter jets and dozens of helicopters, compared to Guyana’s 4,000-5,000 active military personnel.

However, the Venezuelan military suffers from corruption, mismanagement and desertion, which would hamper its performance in war. Even if Maduro decided to launch an invasion, soldiers would have to fight their way through jungles, swamps and other difficult terrain. There are no roads from Venezuela to the Essequibo (making even well-maintained tanks useless), and maintaining a military presence would prove challenging.

Although most analysts reject the possibility of a military invasion of the entire Essequibo area, some estimates suggest that Caracas could launch a limited-range invasion. Since the Guyanese army is much weaker than the Venezuelan one, it is to be expected that Venezuela could seize a certain part of Essequibo and hold it according to the principle of fait accompli. Of course, such an act would not escape international sanctions and condemnation.

Maduro’s use of the Essequibo for domestic politics

Maduro deliberately chose to create a diplomatic crisis to improve his domestic political ratings ahead of elections this year. The turnout for the opposition primaries in October was unusually high – 2.3 million voters. Maduro and his colleagues from the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) therefore wanted to show that they could gather more voters. Formally, 10.5 million voters participated in the referendum on Essequibo (95% supported the Venezuelan demands), which is 51% of registered voters, although many doubt the veracity of these figures.

After the referendum, Venezuela’s Attorney General, Tarek William Saab, accused opposition leaders of sabotaging it and issued arrest warrants for 15 of them, accusing them of being traitors in the service of Guyana. Maduro has accused Guyana’s government of subservience to ExxonMobil, which he says is colluding with the Pentagon to foment a “military conflict” with Venezuela. The referendum divided the opposition. In any case, the Essequibo issue seems perfectly suited to divert public attention from the economic crisis.

According to estimates, Maduro has the support of 12-15% of the electorate, and updating the dispute suits him very well. Government funds such as subsidies to the poor have been largely depleted, so inciting patriotic sentiments is a good strategy to attract voters.

Bad approach by Venezuela

​The International Court of Justice (ICJ) told both countries to submit their written arguments in April. However, the Venezuelan government insisted on resolving the dispute through direct negotiations with the Guyana government because it does not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICJ.

Rafael Badell, a Venezuelan lawyer who wrote a book about the Essequibo dispute, thinks that was a mistake. Like many Venezuelans, Badell believes his country was cheated by an arbitration court in Paris that awarded most of the Essequibo to the British in 1899. He said Venezuela has a good chance to prove to the court that the Paris ruling should be overturned. “Venezuela has key documents showing that in 1814 the British acquired only a small part of the land that now makes up Guyana, but these documents were not taken into account in the Paris ruling.”

Overturning the Paris ruling would open up new possibilities that could include talks between the two sides or the court’s effort to redraw the land and sea border between the two states. “Venezuela may not get all of that territory, but it clearly has rights over some of the land that Guyana currently holds … especially over territorial waters,” Badell added.

It is obvious that the Venezuelan demands are based on facts, but the approach is bad and does not bring any positive effects. Most analysts agree that the warmongering rhetoric of the Maduro government towards Georgetown should not be understood as a prelude to a real conflict. However, the possibility of war should never be dismissed. Any warmongering can create a spark that will start a fire as history has shown countless times. There remains hope that the Brazilian-led peace process will yield results.